Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
341 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL THE BE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.

SYNOPSIS:
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  A SURFACE
TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE.

TONIGHT:
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE AND BUILD
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THE NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SLIDE THE SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH THE NAM
BEING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND HAVE TRENDED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY QUICKER GFS.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY
BENIGN...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY:
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE PRIMED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH 2000-3000 J/KG CAPE AND 30-40 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH CLEAR INTO SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE NEAR
NORMAL RANGE...TO JUST BELOW NORMAL AND REDUCE THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS.  EVEN
HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...AS CLOUDY SKIES
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP MAXIMUM THERMAL HEATING AT BAY.

MONDAY-THURSDAY:
FOR THE EXTENDED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
KANSAS WILL BE IN THE PATH FOR ANY DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE AROUND
THE TROUGH...AS WE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW...AND WILL BRING MUCH
RELIEF TO THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT COULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
DRY.

BILLINGS

&&

.AVIATION...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS...AND WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THE TAF SITES...BUT WITH THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL KEEP
CB MENTIONED RATHER THAN TSRA AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

SCHRECK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72 102  66  95 /  20  30  30  30
GCK  67 100  64  94 /  30  30  30  30
EHA  66 101  63  93 /  20  20  30  30
LBL  70 102  66  95 /  20  30  30  30
HYS  69 102  66  93 /  30  40  20  20
P28  77 105  72  99 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
452 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>079-084>086-132200-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-MORTON-STEVENS-
SEWARD-
452 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010 /352 PM MDT THU AUG 12 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO BE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR HAIL UP
TO QUARTER SIZE, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 60 MPH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND
GENERALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ066-080-081-087>090-132200-
STAFFORD-KIOWA-PRATT-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
452 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR HAIL UP
TO QUARTER SIZE, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 60 MPH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND
GENERALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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