Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
327 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
SUBTROPICAL JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO PUSH INTO KANSAS FROM NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S IN WESTERN
KANSAS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS RECOVERING AS
SOUTH WINDS BRING MOISTURE BACK NORTH. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING AND SPREAD
EAST OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET. SOME COULD BE
SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH 55 KTS AT 250MB. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT
POPS AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE BREEZY TONIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR THURSDAY LOOK FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
BE JUST NORTH OF THE FA. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY AFTERNOON WITH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST FROM 28 TO
32C. GOOD MOMENTUM MIXING WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST FA. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE CLOSE TO
BEING REALIZED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 100 IN THE FAR WEST
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE PUSHES, WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO MIDWEST AND CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING TO NEAR
ELKHART TO DODGE CITY. THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROBABLE
AS THE FRONT UNDERCUTS WARM ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
LOWS WILL BE MILD SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
WITH LOW TO MID 60S NORTH OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS REBUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN AROUND 100 FAR WEST TO LOW TO MID 90S NORTHEAST.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH LACK OF DYNAMICAL FORCING EXCEPT
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FAR NORTH ALONG THE RETURNING WARM FRONT.

DAYS 3-7...

A FRONT WILL BE LINGERING IN OR NEAR OUR NRN CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH THE WARM MID LVL TEMPS CURRENTLY
PROGGED IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAD THE RIGHT IDEA WITH
KEEPING IT HOT AND MAINLY DRY. 12Z MODEL RUNS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
DO ATTEMPT TO GENERATE SOME PCPN EITHER SUNDAY NIGHT OR LATE MONDAY
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND
LOCATION OF THE SFC FRONT WHICH WILL BE IN OUR N/NW CWA. ALTHOUGH AM
UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT SMALL POPS EITHER DAY IN OUR NRN
CWA...AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE WARM LAYER ALOFT AND UNCERTAINTY OF THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE POP FORECAST AS IS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL FOLLOW THE MEAN TREND OF THE 85H TEMPS
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT HIGHS ACROSS THE
AREA APPEAR TO HOVER AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE
N/NW THE HIGHS MAY BRIEFLY DIP A LITTLE AS THE FRONT BRIEFLY DROPS
INTO OUR CWA LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL WITH THIS SAID
85H TEMPS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND CURRENTLY NOT SURE JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL DROP INTO NRN KS.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL HOWEVER
BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW-MID LVL CLOUDS TO ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE, PROGGED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS, MOVES OUT
OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS WRN KS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF NEAR 25KTS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT SHOULD STAY AROUND 15KTS OVERNIGHT.-RB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  99  67  98 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  68  99  64  97 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  65 101  64 100 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  67 100  65 100 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  70  97  67  93 /  20  20  20  20
P28  72  97  73  98 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN06/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-172045-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
340 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010 /240 PM MDT WED JUN 16 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO STATE
BORDER. THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR EAST AS A
WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND LINE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE
AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THEN
TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING MAINLY WEST OF A SCOTT
CITY TO GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL LINE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

06

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