Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
304 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN A RATHER VOLATILE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
DESPITE LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING'S LARGE MCS. OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS
PUSHED PUSHED ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER THIS AM AND MADE IT
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE TRUE SFC FRONT. THE STRONGEST SFC
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS NOW DRAPED ALONG THE OK PANHANDLE WITH ANOTHER
FRONT/WIND SHIFT EVIDENT OVER NW KS. HOWEVER, THE MAIN DEEP LAYER
BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SW KS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. INDEED
CONVECTION NEVER REALLY STOPPED BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS AS WEAK
SHOWERS/ISOLD TS WERE ALREADY REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM THIS MORNING AND CONVECTION HAS SINCE RAMPED UP AGAIN AS
SOME SUN CAME OUT AND WENT TO WORK ON AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
OUTFLOW BACKED THE WINDS ACROSS SW KS THIS AM AND THE WIND PROFILE
NOW VEERS STRONGLY FROM E/SE TOWARD THE SW AHEAD OF THE LARGE
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE UT/CO BORDER. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THINGS DESTABILIZE FURTHER. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS AND THUS SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS SW KS THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT BUT SUFFICIENT CONCERN REGARDING TORNADO POTENTIAL EXISTS
THAT A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SE THIRD OF OUR FA.
IF TRENDS CONTINUE, THIS COULD BE FOLLOWED BY A SVR TS WATCH LATER
FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING'S CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TO EVOLVE
INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS OVER SW/SC KS AS THE UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER,
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH, AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS
IMPROVE. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING ON THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINS LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODEL QPFS ARE IMPRESSIVE OVER CENTRAL KS AND GIVEN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY, THE GFS QPF OF 6+ INCHES DOESN'T LOOK AS
RIDICULOUS AS IT USUALLY WOULD. WILL CERTAINLY NOT GO THAT HIGH
BUT WITH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES, ADDITIONAL RAINS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE EAST OF HWY 283 WITH LESSER, BUT STILL
SIGNIFICANT RAIN POSSIBLE WEST OF HWY 283. SINCE MUCH OF OUR SOUTH
AND EASTERN FA ALREADY RECEIVED 2-5 INCHES FROM LAST NIGHT'S
STORMS (LOCALLY 5+ INCHES FROM PAWNEE/HODGEMAN DOWN THROUGH
KIOWA), FLOODING IS CERTAINLY A CONCERN AND FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY AREAS FOR TONIGHT.

TOMORROW SHOULD BE AN IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAY BUT THE GFS IS ONCE
AGAIN PRODUCING A LARGE MCS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NRN OK
LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MY FA
TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS AT LEAST IN THE SOUTH. BY TUESDAY, OUR
SFC FLOW TURNS UPSLOPE AGAIN AND HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING UPR TROF THUS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO AND MOVING INTO OUR WEST. -WRIGHT

DAYS 3-7...

GFS/EC/GEM ALL STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH A UPPER LVL S/W RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS MID WEEK. 85H TEMP TRENDS FROM BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEAS OF HIGHS
AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW TO MID 90S LIKELY ON THURSDAY.

BY LATE WEEK THE UPPER LVL TROF/LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS IT DOES A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH
INTO KS ON FRIDAY BUT BRIEFLY STALLS THIS FRONT OUT IN OR NEAR OUR
CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS MID LVLS COOL AND WITH A SFC
BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR OUR CWA THE CHANCES OF PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE. AT THIS TIME ALREADY HAVE SMALL POPS GOING FRIDAY NIGHT SO
WILL KEEP THESE AND POSSIBLY EXPAND THE SMALL POPS OUT INTO
SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL LOOK TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM WHILE MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEHIND
THIS FRONT. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT HIGH ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS
FRONT WILL END UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY SO HAVE DECIDED TO
LEAVE TEMPS AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND WHEN OUR
UPPER TROF/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES OUT INTO
PLAINS WILL BE PLACING THE HIGHER CHCS OF TSRA IN THE TAFS AFTER
00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  77  58  83 /  80  30  30  20
GCK  54  74  55  83 /  70  20  20  20
EHA  54  74  57  84 /  50  30  30  30
LBL  57  75  59  85 /  70  40  40  30
HYS  56  73  56  81 /  80  40  20  10
P28  67  82  65  84 /  90  50  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ031-045-046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.
TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 10 PM CDT FOR KSC007-025-033-047-057-
069-083-097-119-145-151-175-185.

&&

FN34/18/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-141730-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010 /1120 AM MDT SUN JUN 13 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND HEAVY
RAIN...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. WHILE SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE FLOODING AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FALLS OVER ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

WRIGHT

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