Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
343 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

MOUNTAIN ENHANCED CIRRUS WAS DEVELOPING IN ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FCST
AREA TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, PRECIP OR
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS (ASIDE FROM PATCHY CIRRUS) IS NOT EXPECTED.
COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO INVADE WESTERN KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S BY SUNDAY. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS, THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHOULD
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIP IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED.

DAYS 3-7...

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION HAS BASICALLY CAUGHT UP TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION
REGARDING THIS WAVE AND ATTENDANT FORCING FIELDS/PRECIPITATION.  THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL WILL BE MONDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE DDC FA
WHERE BEST JET STREAK DYNAMICS AND WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WILL BE LOCATED AS THE WAVE PASSES BY.  WILL MAINTAIN THE 20
POPS GIVEN THE SCANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED EVEN IT THERE
IS ANY PRECIP MONDAY.  TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAK FOR MONDAY HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF
THE FA WHERE I COOLED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES.  OTHER THAN THAT, A
TRANQUIL PERIOD OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER TO
MID 30S FOR LOWS.  THE FIRST HARD/KILLING FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED IT YET (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA) WILL NOT BE UNTIL AT LEAST NOV 5 WITH THE NEXT COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED...AND EVEN THAT DOESN'T LOOK ALL THAT
COLD.  NO SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASSES FROM THE CANADA PRAIRIES ARE EVEN
REMOTELY POSSIBLE IN THIS PLANETARY SCALE FLOW REGIME ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA GIVEN THE DOMINANCE OF STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH PERSISTENT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

&&

.AVIATION...

A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING,
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS OR LESS AT THE THREE
TERMINALS (KDDC, KGCK, KHYS).  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER DURING
THE DAY TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EVENTUALLY EAST AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
TO REFORM ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  42  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  78  42  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  80  42  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  79  43  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  38  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
P28  75  43  68  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN24/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
458 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-311130-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
458 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010 /358 AM MDT SAT OCT 30 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC