Winter Storm Warning 9, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1028 AM MST MON NOV 15 2010

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
NNW UPPER FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NW TONIGHT.
AMPLE MOISTURE AND WEAK IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WDLY SCTD AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIR MTN OBSCURATIONS.  SOMEWHAT MORE WDSPD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY MORNING AS NEXT UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.  -RE-

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM MST MON NOV 15 2010/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

ACTIVE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A COUPLE STORM SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.

CURRENTLY...STARTING TO GET SOME PRETTY GOOD SNOW AMOUNTS REPORTED
ON SNOTELS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES THIS MORNING.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THESE TWO ZONES. PRETTY UNSTABLE ACROSS
THIS AREA AS WELL WITH NAM FORECASTS SHOWING LIFTED INDICES
DROPPING TO ZERO LATER THIS MORNING AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH...SO SHOULD GET SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH CONVECTIVE
DOWNBURSTS. GFS AND NAM QPF OUTPUT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THIS
MORNING AS WELL.

SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SEE SNOW BEGIN
TO DECREASE ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT THAT TIME.

FOR TUESDAY...NEXT STORM LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO BEGIN IMPACTING
THE AREA AFTER 6AM. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO NORTHWEST
WYOMING WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50-60KTS BY NOONTIME.
PRECIP SPREADS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA AFTER NOON TIME AND LOOKS TO
BECOME QUITE HEAVY ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES BY LATE AFTERNOON. 700MB WIND ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 70KTS
BY 00Z. HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES STARTING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. DAY SHIFT COULD UPGRADE ONCE THIS CURRENT
WARNING EXPIRES.

SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE. 700MB
TEMPERATURES WARM FROM -10C TO -2C LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...SO WE SHOULD START SEEING A BRIEF WARMING
TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...SHOWING A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE
STRONG QUASI STATIONARY RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE FRONT RANGE...WITH
WARMER DRIER CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH FORMING OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS AND 700 MB WINDS OVER 50 KTS. INCREASED TEMPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT ALSO INCREASED WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
HIGH WIND CRITERIA ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. KEPT
FORECAST DRY LATE THIS WEEK.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WYOMING BY
SATURDAY. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THE COLDEST
AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...COMPARED TO PRIOR
RUNS WHICH SHOWED THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHING SOUTH INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING...BUT MODELS STILL SHOW THE COLDER AIR PUSHING
INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH TEMPS LOWERING BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODELS DO NOT SHOW A MAJOR
EVENT AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS
NEXT SUNDAY. DID NOT INCREASE POP QUITE YET WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING. LOWERED TEMPS BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE SYSTEM TRAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE DISTRICT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST WILL BRING A ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE MORE SNOW FOR THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES DURING THIS PERIOD. SHOULD BE A
BRIEF BREAK FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
TAKES SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR WYZ112-WYZ114.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR
     WYZ110-WYZ112-WYZ114.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR
     WYZ104-WYZ105-WYZ106-WYZ109-WYZ115-WYZ116-WYZ117.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TJT

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