Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
157 PM MDT MON JUN 7 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...IMPRESSIVE DEW POINTS AT
NOON...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FROM I-25
EASTWARD. DEW POINTS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO
AT MOST LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUD COVER ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECTING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD OFF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS AND STRONG
THIS EVENING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS FROM LARAMIE TO
CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE
TO SIDNEY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED COINCIDENT WITH
BETTER WIND SHEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING SOME 150 TO
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THUS SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO SCOTTSBLUFF
LINE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND COLD FRONT PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

TUESDAY...DRIER...COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THUS LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY SINCE NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE
AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS...THEN STORMS
MOSTLY ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LACK OF LIFT AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

WEDNESDAY...RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVELS...
ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WILL AGAIN
SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AXIS...MOST NUMEROUS FROM DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE. SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN DUE TO FAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING...STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
PACIFIC NW...IT WILL AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE 575-580DM
RANGE ON THURSDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW CUTS OFF OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
SLOWLY LIFTS EAST AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE
PERSISTENT LOW CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEB PANHANDLE FINALLY
THINNING/LIFTING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REGION WIDE BY MID
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CU OVER THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE WILL DEVELOP
INTO TSTMS BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN WY AND
WRN NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME INTENSE TSTMS PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND SEVERE
TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY FROM CYS TO SNY AND AREAS SWD. AFTER THE
TSTMS WIND DOWN LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT LOWERING CIGS AND
VSBYS...ESPECIALLY FROM LAR AND CYS INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE
NEB PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING FROM SLY TO NLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THE
RELATIVELY WET GROUND AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOWS CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR ABOVE BANKFULL FOR MANY
OF THE RIVERS AND STREAMS ORIGINATING IN THE SIERRA MADRE AND
SNOWY RANGES. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK IN THOSE AREAS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
VALUES WERE DROPPING ABOUT AN INCH PER DAY IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES AS THE SNOW MELT PEAKS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT SARATOGA AND SINCLAIR
AS WELL AS THE ENCAMPMENT RIVER. RELEASES FROM UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS
WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE AT
HENRY THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR WYZ115.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION/HYDROLOGY...JAMSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
405 PM MDT MON JUN 7 2010

WYZ103>105-109>116-081200-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
405 PM MDT MON JUN 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST
LAW ENFORCEMENT OR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101-102-106>108-117>119-
081200-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
405 PM MDT MON JUN 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT OR
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

JAMSKI

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
553 PM MDT MON JUN 07 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             ESTERBROOK              42.41N 105.36W
06/07/2010  M0.25 INCH       CONVERSE           WY   PARK/FOREST SRVC

&&

RUBIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
625 PM MDT MON JUN 07 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             6 N TORRINGTON          42.15N 104.18W
06/07/2010  M2.75 INCH       GOSHEN             WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SRUBIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
634 PM MDT MON JUN 07 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 N BURNS               41.31N 104.36W
06/07/2010  E60 MPH          LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SRUBIN