Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
230 PM MDT TUE JUNE 1 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
FAIRLY QUIET THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP
ON RADAR OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA.  EXPECT THIS AREA TO PERSIST
INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW TSTRMS POSSIBLY POPPING UP ELSEWHERE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  UPPER IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS NRN WY INTO S
DAK TONIGHT MAY KEEP SOME ACTIVITY GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT SO HAVE TAILORED POPS IN THAT WAY.  OTHERWISE NOT
MUCH EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS AREA WILL BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT.  WEAK SFC FRONT SHOULD PUSH UP AGAINST THE MTNS TONIGHT AS
SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE NRN PLAINS THEN RETREAT EASTWARD THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.  ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDS EAST OF THE MTNS AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVES
BY.  SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTS OVER ON SOUTHERN SIDE OF SFC HIGH.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A BROAD AND
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY ENDS UP AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO THE EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.  LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE
EASTERN CWA.  THE LOW LEVEL THETA VALUES ALSO INCREASE AS WELL MAINLY
CLOSE TO THE COLORADO BORDER.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE AROUND AN INCH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  FORECAST RAOBS INDICATE A CAP WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
EAST PART OF THE CWA AND WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.  CAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON THOSE DAYS WITH MODELS SHOWING THAT SHOWERS
AND SOME STORMS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE
PANHANDLE.  BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE AREA BOUNDED
BY KIBM...KEAN TO KCYS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL MOST DAYS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
WITH THE GFS DEPICTING MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF.  HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
AND TEMPERATURES SOME FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF WDLY
SCTD TSTRMS.  SOME IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDS MORNING OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY AS FUELS NOT CRITICAL AND
MINIMUM RHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 20%.  SOME GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN DISTRICTS BOTH AFTERNOONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER STAGES ARE HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE
MAINLY TO SNOW MELT.  WYOMING RIVERS EITHER HAVE PEAKED OR WILL SOON
AND THEN WILL START TO SLOWLY RECEDE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.  THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN AT SIMILAR
LEVELS THROUGH THAT TIME DUE TO RELEASES FROM UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS.
SOME SNOTEL SITES STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF SNOW...SO LATER THIS
WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SNOW MELT RATE MAY INCREASE AS THE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

RE/MSW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1029 AM MDT TUE JUN 1 2010

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>103-106>108-116>119-
021100-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-
EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1029 AM MDT TUE JUN 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WYZ104-105-109>115-021100-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
1029 AM MDT TUE JUN 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
510 PM MDT TUE JUN 1 2010

NEZ021-054-055-020015-
CHEYENNE NE-KIMBALL NE-MORRILL NE-
510 PM MDT TUE JUN 1 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MORRILL...
EASTERN KIMBALL AND NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
MDT...

AT 505 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DIX...OR 8 MILES EAST OF KIMBALL...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
POTTER AND I-80 EXIT 38 AROUND 535 PM MDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 26 AND
47.

RUBIN

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