Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1230 PM MDT WED MAY 26 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ATTEMPTING TO GET A JUMP ON TODAY WITH A GOOD THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPSLOPE OVERNIGHT BROUGHT A
BIG INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEW POINTS ARE IN 40S AND
SHOULD ONLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE IN CHEYENNE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS
MORNING SHOWED SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER SWLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY EVIDENT AT 700MB AND WILL HELP TRIGGER STORMS.
ALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS INDICATING THAT THE AREA SHOULD BE
UNDER THE GUN FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 35-40 KNOTS FROM THE RUC (POSSIBLE
TORNADOES) AND CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP OUT SHORTWAVES AND LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO COME INTO PLAY BY THE
SATURDAY TIME FRAME AND SPC HAS OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY
3.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE 12Z GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF DISPLACING
THE PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MOST ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH WY AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. PARAMETERS ARE LOOKING
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS WITH 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE AND
40-50 KT 0-6KM SHEAR ARE FORECAST...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN NE
PANHANDLE. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY...THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTER SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...A MODERATING TREND WILL THEN DOMINATE WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OVER THE NE PANHANDLE AS A BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...UPSLOPE FLOW BROUGHT LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BY 18Z ALL AERODROMES SHOULD BE VFR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF INTERSTATE 25
AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
WEST OF THE RANGE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO PERCENT.
FIRE DANGER WILL BE LOW OVER THE NE PANHANDLE...AND LOW TO MODERATE
OVER SE/SCNTRL WY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...U.S. BUREAU OF RECLAMATION INCREASED THEIR RELEASES AT
GREY REEF DAM TO 3400 CFS AND GLENDO RESERVOIR TO 3000 CFS...AND
REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THESE RELEASES WILL
INCREASE FLOWS ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER...WITH SARATOGA APPROACHING
FLOOD STAGE OF 8.5 FT. ON THE ENCAMPMENT RIVER NEAR ENCAMPMENT...
FLOWS REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO SNOW MELT. WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL INCREASE WATER RUNOFF FROM SNOW
MELT. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RUNOFF.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GRIFFITH
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...JAMSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
216 PM MDT WED MAY 26 2010

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ108-116>119-271445-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-
EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
216 PM MDT WED MAY 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM BY MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE AND THE
COLORADO BORDER AND THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH AT 25 MPH. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER OVER AND TO THE EAST OF ALBANY COUNTY
AND THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA UNTIL 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS MAINLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON THOSE DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WYZ101>107-109>115-271445-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-
216 PM MDT WED MAY 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM BY MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
THE COLORADO BORDER AND THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH AT 25 MPH. SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER OVER ALBANYY COUNTY AND THE
LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALBANY COUNTY UNTIL 9 PM. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...A
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SMALL HAIL
AMD GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FLOODING OF STREAMS AND RIVERS NEAR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RAPID SNOWMELT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WEILAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
357 PM MDT WED MAY 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     HAIL             9 SSW CHEYENNE          41.03N 104.86W
05/26/2010  E0.50 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIZE WAS IN QUESTION BECAUSE IT WAS FALLING SO HARD IT
            WAS A WHITE OUT. COULD NOT GET OUT OF THE BLDNG.

0343 PM     HAIL             6 SSW CHEYENNE          41.07N 104.84W
05/26/2010  M0.75 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0349 PM     HAIL             5 W CHEYENNE            41.15N 104.89W
05/26/2010  M0.50 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0351 PM     HAIL             CHEYENNE                41.15N 104.79W
05/26/2010  M0.25 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0356 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CHEYENNE                41.15N 104.79W
05/26/2010  E60 MPH          LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BCHAPMAN

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