Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
249 PM MDT TUE JUL 6 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP
SHOWS TSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH BASICALLY EXTENDS ALONG I80 FROM LARAMIE TO JUST NORTH OF
SIDNEY NEBRASKA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9
PM TONIGHT FOR LARGE HAIL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
LATER...THEREFORE WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF. EXPECT SINGLE CELL
TSTORMS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH SUPER CELL
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS COLD POOL INTENSITY
STRENGTHENS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT TSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH BOW ECHO AND SQUALL LINE FORMATION
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THEN BECOME A MAJOR CONCERN SINCE
MANY AREAS SOUTH OF THE PINE RIDGE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAINFALL LAST WEEKEND...PLEASE SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
MORE INFORMATION. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS LARAMIE AND PORTIONS OF
ALBANY COUNTY AS A LOW STRATUS DECK SETTLES OVER THE AREA MAINLY
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS AND LOW CLOUDS.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A FEW MORE DEGREES.
INCREASED POP TONIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA...AND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LEANED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT ON
FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND FLATTENS OUT. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE WEST COAST AT THIS TIME. DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ONCE AGAIN ON FRI. FOR SAT...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
OVER THE CWA AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE CAPPED...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST WILL WEAKEN ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS IT
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE OVER THE
CWA ON SUNDAY AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FINALLY FOR MON...THE WEAKENED UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 4 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRI...AND
AROUND NORMAL FOR SAT THROUGH TUES.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL THE SITES. BELIEVE TOWERING
CUMULUS WILL FORM BY 20Z ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE SUPPORTS THIS REASONING AS CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
FORMING OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST FORM OVER
THE WESTERN SITES DURING MID AFTERNOON AND WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOW STRATUS TO LINGER WELL INTO
MID DAY TOMORROW. IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RESULT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A DAILY CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
ALTHOUGH THE FUELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS HAVE PARTIALLY CURED...HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH MORE PRECIP EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...UPSTREAM RELEASES FROM RESERVOIRS IN EASTERN WYOMING
WILL KEEP THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR HENRY NEBRASKA JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS
FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD. MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAS RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE ALREADY
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS MAY AGGRAVATE SFC FLOODING. SO...GIVEN
QPF VALUES IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE...AND LIKELY LOCALLY
MORE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST STORMS...WILL CONTINUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH 07/12Z. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE FLASH FLOODING
WITH AS LITTLE AS A HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL DUE TO VERY SATURATED
CONDITIONS NEAR THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH.
&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ002-NEZ003-NEZ019-
     NEZ020-NEZ021-NEZ054-NEZ055-NEZ095-NEZ096.

&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...TJT
LONG TERM/AVIATION...LUNDQUIST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
208 PM MDT TUE JUL 6 2010

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>103-106>108-115>119-
071130-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-LARAMIE VALLEY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
208 PM MDT TUE JUL 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WELL AS GOSHEN...PLATTE AND LARAMIE COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST WYOMJING. HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE SATURATED
SOIL CONDITIONS EXIST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WYZ104-105-109>114-071130-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
208 PM MDT TUE JUL 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH
DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WEILAND

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