Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
238 PM MDT SUN JUL 4 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAIN FORECAST IMPACT IN SHORT TERM WILL BE TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING. CURRENT KCYS RADAR INDICATED TWO WELL DEFINED SUPERCELLS
WITH HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES IN PLATTE COUNTY AND GOSHEN
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. MOST FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY PATTERN IS SOUTH INTO COLORADO BUT FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES ALONG EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. WILL KEEP
CURRENT TREND OF SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST
TSTM POTENTIAL SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH
WEAK FLOW BEFORE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN
TO COOLING TREND. MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO FIRST SIX HOUR
GRIDS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES INTO TUESDAY. SLA

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES EVIDENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
WITH RESPECT TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NRN CONUS TROUGH...WITH
THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE ECMWF LAGGING THE TROUGH AXIS
FURTHER TO THE WEST AND SLOWER IN BUILDING THE WRN CONUS RIDGE. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH INSTABILITY PEAKING
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
WEEKEND...WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND
TUESDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY AS THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BREAKS DOWN. TEMPS WILL
RETURN BACK TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP SCT TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE
TO SEVERE TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TSTMS WILL WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT VFR EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT KCYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...UPSTREAM RELEASES FROM RESERVOIRS IN EASTERN WYOMING
WILL KEEP THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR HENRY NEB JUST ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT COULD ACCUMULATE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH OVER THE
BASIN WHICH MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER STAGE VALUES THAN
PREDICTED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...TORNADO WATCH 442 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT FOR CARBON
ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES.
NE...TORNADO WATCH 442 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR BANNER
CHEYENNE AND KIMBALL COUNTIES.
&&

LONG TERM/AVIATION/HYDROLOGY...JAMSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
533 AM MDT SUN JUL 4 2010

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-051145-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
533 AM MDT SUN JUL 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE WITHIN THE THICKEST FOG.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

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