Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
405 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF PA EARLY THIS EVENING...
THEN BACK SOUTHWARD ON SAT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE
FRONT LATE SATURDAY...AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE STATE ON SUNDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

BY MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...
BRINGING COOLER AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH-CAPE/LOW-MOD SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA
HAS DEVELOPED FIRST AS EXPECTED. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK
TO COVER ALL THE CWA. SWOMCD HAS INDICATED WATCH LIKELIHOOD SOON
IN THE SOUTH AND WW254 IS ALREADY UP TO OUR WRN BORDER. THE STORMS
IN THE SOUTH WILL MAINLY BE PULSE CELLS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
POSSIBLE OUT OF THE TALLER CELLS.

S/WV MOVING THRU THE UPPER GLKS STILL ON TRACK TO PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE WEAKER CAPE OVER THE N THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THE HIGHER SHEAR IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR ORGANIZATION
INTO MULTI CELLS CLUSTERS WITH BOW ECHOES AND HAIL AS WELL.
WITH THE NRN MTS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK AND DIFFUSE WARM
FRONT THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INCREASE IN LLVL HELICTY AND
COULD MAKE A TOR...BUT ONLY A REMOTE POSS THERE. WILL KEEP POPS
HIGH DESPITE THE MORE SCT NATURE OF THE STORMS IN THE S...AND MAKE
THE POPS A BIT HIGHER /CATG/ IN THE N. WILL LOWER POPS SIG - ESP
IN THE S - AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE
60S FOR THE MOST PART...EVEN HANGING AROUND 70F IN THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS NOW KEEP THE FRONT SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PD. THIS WILL KEEP US IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND THE APPCH AND PASSAGE OF SIGNIFICANT S/WV TROF LATE
SAT WILL FIRE MORE TSRA...AND SLIGHT RISK ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
REGION SAT. EXPECT LOWER AVAILABLE ENERGY ON SAT - MAINLY
1000J/KG ON THE TOP END DUE TO CLOUD COVER...BUT MUCH GREATER
SHEAR EXPECTED AS THE WAVE ROLLS THRU. HIGH POPS ON ORDER FOR
LATER SAT AND ALL SAT NIGHT AS COVG OF THE STORMS WILL BE PRETTY
WIDESPREAD.

MAXES WILL BE A FEW DEGS F COOLER ON SAT THAN TODAY...AGAIN
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER. SAT NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY ONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD ON THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY...AND THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW. I ALSO DID EDGE UP MAX TEMPS SOME ON SUNDAY.

POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ON SUNDAY...
GIVEN SUCH STRONG WIND FIELDS FOR EARLY JUNE.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. A SMALL CHC
OF SHOWERS AT MID WEEK...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA.

A WARM UP POSSIBLE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE...BUT DID UP
TEMPS SOME HERE AND THERE. WILL SPEND THE NEXT FEW HOURS
LOOKING AT STORMS...SEVERE WATCH 255 IN EFFECT FOR MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA...EXCLUDING THE FAR NORTH...UNTIL 10 PM.
MAINLY PULSE STORMS SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WEEK...SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL POP UP
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD FROM SW TO NE...WHICH
WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION OF WIDESPREAD VFR
TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS MAJORITY OF ACTION WILL BE IN
THE SOUTH...AT LEAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND HENCE
INCLUDED TEMPO IFR/MVFR FOR KJST...KAOO...AND KMDT.

SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE IN THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A THREAT FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP LATE...AND THEN LIFT AGAIN JUST IN TIME FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
SUN...PROLONGED MVFR/IFR PSBL WEST-CENTRAL SXNS.
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR.
WED...VFR WITH LOCAL RESTRICITION IS SCT SHRA/TSRA

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DANGELO/DICKEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
243 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046-051-053-051845-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
MONTOUR-COLUMBIA-
243 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-049-050-052-056>059-063>066-051845-
CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-
MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-UNION-SNYDER-
NORTHUMBERLAND-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-
YORK-LANCASTER-
243 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 255 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DANGELO

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