Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1200 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A WESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE KEYSTONE STATE LATE MEMORIAL DAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STATIONARY FRONT AND PRONOUNCED INVERTED SFC TROF EXTEND NORTHWARD
THROUGH PA INTO NY STATE. AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS CREEPING NW FROM
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ON SE WINDS ALONG THE SFC TROF. INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS LOWER THAN PAST FEW DAYS BUT IT WILL STILL
BE A WARM...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT HAZY LATE SPRING AFTERNOON. SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROF WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK
IMPULSES MOVING SOUTH FROM NY TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA.

LOWER TEMPS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY IN CHECK AND SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND WEAK...SO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORM IS
LOW...BUT EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
REPEATING/TRAINING CELLS...0-6KM MEAN STORM MOTION IS 340 AT
8KTS...THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A CONCERN
INTO THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM AS DEWPOINTS
ARE NOT EXCEEDINGLY HIGH AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE MOST PLACES IS
IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RAIN OVER 3 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DID TAPER POPS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD DIE DOWN BY THEN.

BEST CHC FOR ANYTHING ON SATURDAY WOULD BE DURING THE AFT...
BUT NOT AS HIGH OF CHANCE AS TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SUNDAY...H5 HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND INTO MEMORIAL
DAY AS MOST LOCATIONS GET INTO THE 80S SUN AND MON. A COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HPC PROGS SHOWING THE FRONT TRAVERSING THE AREA LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SUGGESTING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST AREAS FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WITH
MOST LIKELY TIMING BEING LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...
THOUGH THIS TIMING COULD SLOW DOWN A BIT AND PUSH BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS INTO TUES.

FOR NOW...DID SLOW TIMING DOWN SOME FOR MONDAY...DID CUT BACK
ON POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LVL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF PATCHY MVFR CIGS/FOG WILL MIX OUT
TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY LATE MORNING. A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A NEW ROUND OF TSRA
DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTN. ANY TSRA COULD CREATE BRIEF VSBY/CIGS
REDUCTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE VFR AND LGT WINDS. SCT TSRA SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LVL
MOISTURE...PARTIAL CLEARING AND LGT WINDS COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF
FOG LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...AM IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSS. PM TSRA POSSIBLE.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...PM TSRA POSSIBLE.
TUE...TSRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
NEAR TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
525 AM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-290930-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
525 AM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER EXTREME EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE NEARLY STATIONARY AND
PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN ISOLATED SPOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WHILE STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MARYLAND BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH.

MARTIN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1223 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

PAZ017-018-281700-
CLEARFIELD PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-
1223 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL CLEARFIELD AND
SOUTHWESTERN CENTRE COUNTIES...

AT 1219 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BRISBIN...MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR RAMEY AROUND 1240 PM...GLEN HOPE AROUND 1250
PM AND COALPORT AROUND 100 PM.

LAT...LON 4095 7846 4089 7824 4074 7829 4073 7837
      4072 7859 4073 7860

EXPERIMENTAL

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1244 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

PAZ010-011-281715-
CAMERON PA-ELK PA-
1244 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL ELK AND WESTERN
CAMERON COUNTIES...

AT 1240 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TRUMAN...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR
EMPORIUM AROUND 115 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...STATE ROAD 120...STATE
ROAD 255.

LAT...LON 4157 7821 4135 7822 4138 7858 4156 7857

EXPERIMENTAL

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1251 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

PAZ024-025-281715-
BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-
1251 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
CAMBRIA AND WEST CENTRAL BLAIR COUNTIES...

AT 1245 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE CAMBRIA BLAIR COUNTY LINE...NORTHWEST OF
ALTOONA NEAR BLANDBURG.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN
NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE
STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 4072 7839 4047 7842 4048 7859 4073 7859

EXPERIMENTAL

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1256 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

PAZ017-018-281730-
CLEARFIELD PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-
1256 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL CLEARFIELD AND
SOUTHWESTERN CENTRE COUNTIES...

AT 1253 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR OSCEOLA MILLS...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN
A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS
STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR HOUTZDALE AROUND 100 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 322...STATE ROAD
350.

LAT...LON 4081 7855 4098 7824 4084 7809 4074 7823
      4074 7837 4073 7837 4072 7845

EXPERIMENTAL

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL