Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
454 PM EDT THU APR 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD MAKE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BRISK WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY MORNING...WHEN A FROST
OR FREEZE IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM GRADUALLY OVER THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

REFRESHED HEADLINES ON ZONES TO MATCH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES HELPED TO BOOST TEMPS ABOVE 80F ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQ REGION. KIPT MAY APPROACH THE
RECORD HIGH OF 85F SET IN 1991...AS SFC WINDS VEER AROUND MORE TO
A DOWN- SLOPING SSW DIRECTION AND INCREASE A FEW KTS THROUGH 2030Z
(PRIOR TO CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING THE REGION).

STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WRN ALLEGHENIES ATTM...AND
TEMPS WILL FALL SHARPLY BY 20-25F IN JUST A FEW HOUR PERIOD LATE
TODAY FROM KJST TO KBFD.

TEMP FALLS FURTHER EAST WILL FALL THIS EVENING...AND BLEND IN MORE
WITH THE NORMAL/DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

09Z SREF AND 12Z OPERATIONAL NAM AGREE ON AN APPROX A 4-5 PERIOD
OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT PLOWS ACROSS
THE STATE.

RATHER LOW DEWPOINTS (IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS) AND
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LLVL CONVERGENCE SO FAR TODAY HAVE KEPT A
LID ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE
SUNSHINE HAS BEEN PLENTIFUL.

A SHORT...1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TSRA ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY LATE
TODAY (PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS THE CENTRAL MTNS). HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION WILL HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE 35 KT WINDS FROM THE
6-7 KFT AGL LAYER...WITH PERHAPS SEVERAL MORE KNOTS TACKED ON VIA
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING IN THE DOWNDRAFTS.

SKIES TURN PARTLY CLOUDY BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST WITH NO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BETWEEN 05-12Z FRI...
WHILE THE WESTERN MTNS WILL SEE VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHALLOW STRATO
AS SCTD LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN...MIXING WITH WET SNOW AS 850 MB
TEMPS SETTLE DOWN INTO THE -5 TO -8C RANGE THERE.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE 40-45F RANGE IN THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY WE'LL SEE UNTIL SOMETIME IN
THE FALL THANKS TO A TROUGH OF 850 MB TEMPS OF -5CENTRAL TO -9C
NW...TOPPED BY A POOL OF VERY COLD 700 MB TEMPS OF -14 TO -16C.

THUS...MAXES WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND MORE NORMAL - MID TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FOR SAT AM...AND BRINGS THE COLDEST
MORNING OF THE UPCOMING CHILLY SPELL. HOWEVER...THE TROF IS
MOVING AWAY SO QUICKLY THAT THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE W ON SAT AND
HELPS TO MODERATE THE TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL MAXES. FRI WILL BE THE
FIRST DAY BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE 27TH. THAT COLD SHOT WAS SHORT-
LIVED TOO...WITH ONLY TWO DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL MEANS. MOST OF
MARCH AND THE ENTIRE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL HAS HAD TEMPS 5 TO 20
DEGS ABOVE NORMALS EACH DAY.

CLOUDS AND SCT SHRA WILL LAST ALL OF FRIDAY...AND INTO THE NIGHT IN
THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. WILL JUST MENTION SCT RASH OR SHSN THERE
FOR FRI NIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A LIGHT COATING IN SOME SPOTS
(MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80).

AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FRI NIGHT...THE MOISTURE GOES AWAY AND
SHOULD END MOST PRECIP BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
SLACKENING WIND WILL ALLOW MINS IN THE MID 20S (NW) TO MID 30S
(SE).

THUS...A FROST OR FREEZE IS POSSIBLE TO LIKELY. THE RECENT
/RECORD/ WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST MONTH+ HAS MOST LIKELY
HURRIED THE GROWING SEASON ALONG...AND SOME DISCUSSION MAY FOLLOW
THIS SHIFT AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO BEGIN THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM
AT THIS VERY EARLY TIME. WE DO NOT USUALLY START THE PROGRAM OF
ISSUING FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS UNTIL THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE
THE LAST SPRING FREEZE - WHICH IS USUALLY NOT UNTIL TAX DAY IN THE
SE...AND NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF MAY IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...I WILL PASS ON ANY ISSUANCE OF
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOCAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANY LINGERING COMMA HEAD RA/SN SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE ENSUING TEMPERATURE
MODERATION HAS BECOME TEMPERED BY A DAY OR TWO...OWING TO A
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
LONG-WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE WEST. DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE MS/OH/TN VLYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PLAINS/MIDWEST. CONSIDERING THE AMPLIFIED
NATURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT SURPRISED TO SEE THE
MODELS CONVERGING TOWARD A MORE GRADUAL WARM-UP AND SLOWER
SOLUTION OVERALL. MANUAL BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW/MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP INVOF PA WITH MUCH COOLER AIR
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH IS FCST
TO MOVE SEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH AN EASTERLY MARITIME AIR FLOW
NORTH OF THE RETREATING BACKDOOR FRONT ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE SLOWER WARMING TREND.

THE UNFOLDING LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD FEATURE ANOTHER STRETCH
OF MAINLY DRY/SEASONAL WEATHER UNDER A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE THIS
CYCLE FOCUSED ON A SLOWER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED WARMING HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU CENTRAL PA LATE THIS AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING. A GUSTY TSRA MAY PRECEDE OR ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND WILL INCLUDE A 2-4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA IN MOST
TAF SITES WITH WEST TO SW WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STORMS.

A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WEST WILL OCCUR WITH THE
FROPA...ARRIVING ACROSS THE W MTNS ARND 20Z...THEN SUSQ VALLEY BY
ARND 00Z. A PERIOD OF SHRA AND LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
AND FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SEVERAL HOURS.

THE WORST CONDS WILL LIKELY BE OVR THE W MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPING
WEST FLOW IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN IFR CIGS (AND MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
VSBYS) THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...AND VFR TO MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS
OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN/NRN MTNS WITH MAINLY VFR ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND ERN VALLEYS.

AFTER A 3-6 HOUR LULL IN THE WEST WIND LATE TONIGHT (AVERAGE
SPEEDS ONLY 10-12 MPH)...GUSTY WEST WINDS AVERAGING 14 TO 28 MPH
WITH G25-35 MPH WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH SCTD MVFR VSBYS AND
CIGS IN SHOWERS.

MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
503 PM EDT THU APR 8 2010

PAZ026-028-035-036-056-063-064-082130-
ADAMS PA-CUMBERLAND PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA
PA-PERRY PA-
503 PM EDT THU APR 8 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN FULTON...
SOUTHEASTERN HUNTINGDON...SOUTHWESTERN JUNIATA...SOUTHWESTERN
PERRY...WESTERN ADAMS AND WESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVERED PORTIONS OF ADAMS...
CUMBERLAND...FRANKLIN...FULTON...HUNTINGDON...JUNIATA AND PERRY
COUNTIES AT 458 PM EDT. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE GENERALLY
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND GUSTS FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS...AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 178 AND 212...I-81 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 1 AND 35.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 11...ROUTE
30...ROUTE 522.

LAT...LON 3972 7797 4024 7802 4047 7757 4013 7736
      3972 7734

EXPERIMENTAL

FORECASTER: BEACHLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
519 PM EDT THU APR 8 2010

PAZ012-018-019-026>028-041-045-049-050-082145-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-MIFFLIN PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-
NORTHERN CLINTON PA-NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-SNYDER PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-UNION PA-
519 PM EDT THU APR 8 2010

...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
AFFECT CLINTON...EASTERN CENTRE...JUNIATA...MIFFLIN...NORTHEASTERN
HUNTINGDON...SOUTHWESTERN UNION...WESTERN LYCOMING AND WESTERN
SNYDER COUNTIES...

AT 516 PM EDT...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WERE LOCATED FROM 19
MILES NORTH TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEWISTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE NEAR HYNER AROUND 530 PM...REBERSBURG AROUND 540 PM AND
DUNNSTOWN AROUND 550 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 152 AND 189...I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 78
AND 85.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 22/522...
ROUTE 220...ALTERNATE ROUTE 220...ROUTE 322...ROUTE 322/22...ROUTE
522...STATE ROAD 26...STATE ROAD 45...STATE ROAD 120.

LAT...LON 4154 7739 4124 7727 4121 7733 4114 7723
      4059 7722 4027 7777 4085 7779 4123 7795

EXPERIMENTAL

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
525 PM EDT THU APR 8 2010

PAZ006-010>012-082200-
CAMERON PA-ELK PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-POTTER PA-
525 PM EDT THU APR 8 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CAMERON...NORTHWESTERN
CLINTON...SOUTHEASTERN ELK AND SOUTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTIES...

AT 521 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MEDIX
RUN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BENEZETTE AROUND 530 PM...DRIFTWOOD AROUND
540 PM...STEVENSON DAM AROUND 550 PM AND WHARTON AROUND 600 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT STATE ROAD 120.

LAT...LON 4158 7771 4122 7812 4124 7842 4162 7827
      4162 7821 4170 7821

EXPERIMENTAL

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
534 PM EDT THU APR 8 2010

PAZ028-036-056-063>065-082200-
ADAMS PA-CUMBERLAND PA-FRANKLIN PA-JUNIATA PA-PERRY PA-YORK PA-
534 PM EDT THU APR 8 2010

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ADAMS...CENTRAL
JUNIATA...CUMBERLAND...EASTERN FRANKLIN...PERRY AND WESTERN YORK
COUNTIES...

AT 530 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 18
MILES SOUTH OF LEWISTOWN TO CHAMBERSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...IN ADDITION
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE NEAR KISTLER AROUND 540 PM...SEVEN STARS AROUND 545
PM...ICKESBURG AROUND 550 PM...THOMPSONTOWN AROUND 555 PM AND
NEWPORT AROUND 600 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 200 AND 236...I-81 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 14 AND 61.

LAT...LON 3973 7766 4041 7764 4067 7704 4066 7701
      4042 7699 4040 7703 4038 7703 4036 7698
      3973 7692

EXPERIMENTAL

FORECASTER: BEACHLER

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