Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1025 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR SLATED TO RETURN DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK MUCH WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY AND WILL PROBABLY LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
GREATEST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE FLASH FLOOD/SVR WX
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CURRENT VWPS AND AIRCRAFT
OBS CONFIRM 50KT LL JET POINTED INTO SOUTHEAST PA. TSRA HAVE
DEVELOPED AT NOSE OF LL JET IN HARRISBURG VICINITY /1.8 INCHES
REPORTED IN ONE HOUR BY SPOTTER JUST WEST OF MDT/. ALTHOUGH CAPES
NOT IMPRESSIVE...CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED 50KTS WINDS MIXING TO SFC
UNDER STRONGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE
FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES OF ARND 2 INCHES.

ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD RAIN FALLING CURRENTLY FALLING FROM OHIO
VALLEY NE INTO WESTERN PA IN AREA OF LG SCALE FORCING/COPIOUS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVR THE GRT LKS. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER EVEN POSS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...WHEN MOST POTENT FORCING ARRIVES. MANUAL BLEND OF LATEST
OPER MDLS SHOW AVG QPF OVERNIGHT FROM OVR 1 INCH OVR THE NW MTNS
AND LOCALIZED SPOTS OF LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...TO ARND .50 INCHES OVR
THE CENTRAL COUNTIES. IT WILL BE A MILD AND HUMID NIGHT FOR EARLY
MAY WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE 60S ALMOST EVERYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH ANY
SHOWERS BASICALLY CONFINING THEMSELVES TO THE SE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. A GUSTY WEST WIND SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
BREAKING OUT BY MID DAY...AND FURTHER DRYING TAKING PLACE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO BTWN 20-25KTS BASED ON
LATEST BUFKIT DATA. HIGH TEMPS SHUD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IF A ANY
SHOWERS MANAGE TO LINGER IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
OPERATIONAL GFS/GEM SHOW SOME SMALL QPF OVER WESTERN
HIGHLANDS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. DECENT BAROCLINICITY
STAYS UP TO THE NORTH AS WEAK SFC RIDGING SEEMS TO DIMINISH A WEAK
SHOT EARLY IN THE PD. LOW CHC POPS SEEM ON ORDER FOR THE LATE
MON NITE INTO EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS THE FIRST TROF PUSHES
THRU. EXPECT ONLY A MINOR DIP IN TEMPS VS MON AND WED. TEMPS
CLIMB WED AND THURS DUE TO 8H TEMPS RISING BACK INTO THE TEENS ON
BROAD SW FLOW. WED LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY. THURS SHOULD BE THE
HOTTEST DAY WITH MID 80S LIKELY/UPPER 80S POSS IN THE ERN CITIES.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL...BUT CHC FOR PRECIP
DEPENDS ENTIRELY ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF A FRONT THAT
SHOULD BE LAYING OUT W-E AS IT TRIES TO PUSH IN FROM THE N. GFS
MOVES IT THRU TO OUR S...BUT THE EC HANGS IT UP JUST TO OUR N AND
WAITS FOR A WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE W TO MAKE PRECIP LOCALLY. THURS
NIGHT SEEMS TO HOLD THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP...AND ONLY
IN THE NORTH. FIRST GUESS WOULD BE TO HANG WITH THE SLOWER PASSAGE
DUE TO THE STILL-RATHER-ZONAL FLOW. WILL BLEND THE TWO CAMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND FCST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND MAKE GENERALLY CHC
POPS THRU THE LATTER TWO DAYS OF THE FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR DEPENDING ON IF IT IS
RAINING OR NOT. CONTINUE TO EXPECT DECREASED CONDITIONS IN THE
RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS RIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE
EVENING APPROACHES...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD BRING CEILINGS
IN THE 2000-4000' RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE 4-6 MILE
RANGE...LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

MONDAY WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT SWEEP EAST OF THE AREA BRINGING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH ALL AREAS GOING VFR BY NOON AT THE
LATEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1010 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

PAZ057>059-065-066-030315-
DAUPHIN PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-YORK PA-
1010 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LEBANON...NORTH CENTRAL YORK...
NORTHWESTERN LANCASTER...SOUTHEASTERN DAUPHIN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES...

AT 1007 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MIDDLETOWN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CAMPBELLTOWN...HERSHEY...AND MOUNT JOY
AROUND 1015 PM...PALMYRA...AND MOUNT GRETNA AROUND 1020
PM...CORNWALL AND MANHEIM AROUND 1025 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 246 AND 285...I-78 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 5 AND 8...I-83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 45 AND 47...I-283.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...THE HARRISBURG
AIRPORT CONNECTOR...STATE HIGHWAY 283...ROUTE 22...ROUTE 322...ROUTE
422...STATE ROAD 61...STATE ROAD 501.

LAT...LON 4000 7671 4027 7685 4047 7639 4038 7625
      4037 7621 4025 7605

EXPERIMENTAL

FORECASTER: MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1047 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

PAZ056>059-063>066-030415-
ADAMS PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-PERRY PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-YORK PA-
1047 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DAUPHIN...EAST CENTRAL
PERRY...EASTERN CUMBERLAND...LANCASTER...LEBANON...NORTHERN
ADAMS...NORTHERN YORK AND SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES...

AT 1043 PM EDT...THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR
MECHANICSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR SHIREMANSTOWN...MECHANICSBURG...AND DOVER
AROUND 1050 PM...LEWISBERRY...AND NEW CUMBERLAND AROUND 1055
PM...VALLEY GREEN AND GOLDSBORO AROUND 1100 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 219 AND 295...I-78 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 0 AND 8...I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 36 AND 139...I-83
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14 AND 50...I-283.

LAT...LON 4064 7599 4058 7602 4058 7607 4053 7618
      4049 7642 4015 7589 4011 7593 4005 7594
      3999 7597 3982 7741 4016 7736 4076 7644
      4080 7632 4085 7630 4094 7616 4091 7603
      4092 7600 4083 7591 4075 7577

EXPERIMENTAL

FORECASTER: MARTIN