Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
415 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM NICOLE WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL LIKELY
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL LIFT NORTH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ARRIVING
IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WV/IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS LONG-
FETCH TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NWD INTO THE REGION...WITH
ACCOMPANYING PWAT VALUES +2-4SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE LATEST RUC DATA
SHOWS A SFC WAVE LIFTG NWD INTO CNTRL PA...WITH A RELATIVELY
NARROW N-S DEFORMATION PRECIP AXIS SETTING UP OVRHEAD PER LATEST
REGIONAL RDR IMAGERY. RAINS ARE TAPERING OFF ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHILE BCMG A BIT MORE SHOWERY IN THE LWR
SUSQ. EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES /1-2" PER HOUR/ TO CONTINUE
WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND OVR THE CNTRL MTNS. THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE FIRST PERIOD IS THE REMNANT CIRC /T.S NICOLE/ FCST TO MOVE
UP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST TWD THE DELMARVA TONIGHT.

THE SECONDARY THREAT FOR LOW-TOPPED ROTATING STORMS/ISOLD
TORNADOES HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS RDR SHOWS A MINIMUM IN
CELLULAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY. REGIONAL
VWP/S TO THE SOUTH ARE SHOWING VERY IMPRESSIVE 60-70 KT SLY LLJ AT
850MB POINTED INTO THE WATCH AREA. TORNADO WATCH 689 CONTINUES
THROUGH 23Z.

THE MAIN MDL DIFFS ARE WITH THE PLACEMENT/TRACK OF THE OF THE SFC
LOW CIRC AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG WAVERING N-S FNTL ZONE TONIGHT.
THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
FOR ERN PA. THE ECMWF...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE PATTERN THE LAST FEW DAYS...SHOWS A TRACK SLIGHTLY WWD OF
THE CONSENSUS AND BRINGS HEAVY RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLOOD
WATCH AREA.  WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE SAME HIGHLY ANOMALOUS HEAVY
RAIN INGREDIENTS STILL IN PLACE...MY MANUALLY BLENDED QPF THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY SHOWS ANOTHER 1-3" OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VLY/MAIN STEM
BASINS. IN GENERAL...I'M ANTICIPATING ANOTHER RIBBON OF HVY RNFL
OVER MY ERN MOST CNTYS BUT THE LOCATION IS CRUCIAL WITH RESPECT TO
POTENTIAL FLOODING CONDITIONS. THE WRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
BE SHARP...LEADING TO A DIFFICULT FCST. OVERALL STILL EXPECT STORM
TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT OF A SOLID 2-5" IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WITH
ISOLD SPOTS OF 8-10" MAINLY OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW LIFTS N/NE FRI
AFTN...IT WILL ALLOW COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BEHIND A GUSTY NNW WIND. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BRING AN
END TO THE RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LINGERING LIGHT
DEFORMATION PRECIP ENDING OVER ERN SXNS EARLY IN THE DAY. SFC
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE IMPROVG CONDS FRI NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT IN CARVING OUT A SOLID MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH ADDITIONAL AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEHIND A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LVL JET DIVING SEWD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS/UPR MS VLY INTO MS/OH VLY. A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IS
EMERGING AS THE GFS/GEFS ARE CLEARLY TRENDING TWD THE ECMWF/GEM
WHICH BOTH HAVE KEPT GREAT CONTINUITY IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CLOSED LOW IN THE EAST FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. COOLER AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED CONDS BY MID-WEEK
AS A COASTAL LOW IS DRAWN NNWWD AND OCCLUDES INVOF THE
DELMARVA/MID-ATLC COAST. TEMPERATURES STILL AVERAGING BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA
AND THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR CIGS ACROSS
THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND WRN MTNS OF PENN WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT NEAR THE SURFACE HAS PUSHED NORTHWARD TO NEAR
INTERSTATE 81 AT 16Z. THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH A
BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD ALLOW
CIGS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY THERE AT TIMES AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...THIS
UNSTABLE AIR MASS COULD ALSO SPAWN SCT STRONG/ROTATING LOW-TOPPED
TSRA. MOVMT OF TSRA CELLS WILL BE QUICKLY /45KTS/ FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...AS WINDS OF 40-50 KTS FROM THE SSE ARE PRESENT WITHIN 2 KFT
AGL.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF CONVECTION...WILL HANDLE WITH A CB
APPENDAGE AT KMDT FOR NOW. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL OF
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR...AS THE POWERFUL LOW LVL JET LIFTS ACROSS
EASTERN PA TODAY. LLWS CRITERIA MOST LIKELY TO BE MET AT KIPT DUE
TO LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE IT OUT
ELSEWHERE.

AS LOW LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS LAST OF THE RAIN TAPERS OFF
ACROSS EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
MTNS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW /IFR/ CIGS GOING AT KBFD AND KJST.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...IFR TO MVFR...MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
      MTNS OF PENN. VFR TO MVFR ON THE AFTERNOON WITH A GUSTY NW
      WIND.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...MVFR/SHOWERS POSS KJST.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY OF 2-3" IN THE LOWER MAIN
STEM SUSQ AND ERN TRIBS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MODERATE TO MAJOR
FLOODING ON THE CONESTOGA AND SWATARA RIVERS. MANY OF THE LARGER
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE WEST BRANCH AND LOWER MAIN STEM SUSQ ARE
EXPECTED TO SWELL TO NEAR BANKFULL LEVELS AND APPROACH FLOOD
STAGES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-
025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
HYDROLOGY...STEINBUGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1243 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

PAZ006-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056-063-
064-011645-
POTTER-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-
1243 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

PAZ057>059-065-066-011645-
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-YORK-LANCASTER-
1243 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 689 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING.

PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-033-011645-
WARREN-MCKEAN-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
1243 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

MS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
226 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

PAZ057>059-065-066-301900-
DAUPHIN PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-YORK PA-
226 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...A STRONG SHOWER WITH ROTATION WILL AFFECT EASTERN DAUPHIN...EASTERN
YORK...LEBANON...NORTHWESTERN LANCASTER AND SOUTHWESTERN SCHUYLKILL
COUNTIES...

AT 224 PM EDT...A STRONG SHOWER WAS NEAR RED LION...MOVING NORTH AT
55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL BE
NEAR FELTON AROUND 235 PM...EAST PROSPECT AROUND 240 PM...
WRIGHTSVILLE AROUND 245 PM...MOUNT JOY AROUND 250 PM...RHEEMS AROUND
255 PM AND LAWN AROUND 300 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 256 AND 267...I-78 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 0 AND 7...I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 80 AND 113.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...STATE HIGHWAY
283...ROUTE 22...ROUTE 30...ROUTE 209...ROUTE 322...ROUTE 422.

LAT...LON 4066 7672 4068 7666 4068 7637 4051 7639
      4049 7642 4047 7639 3972 7646 3972 7656

FORECASTER: DEVOIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
259 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE RED LION           39.95N 76.54W
09/30/2010                   YORK               PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

0100 PM     FLOOD            MECHANICSBURG           40.21N 77.01W
09/30/2010                   CUMBERLAND         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER COVERING HOGESTOWN RD. HOGESTOWN RUN AT BANKFULL
            AND BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER.

0155 PM     FLOOD            1 NE LEBANON            40.35N 76.41W
09/30/2010                   LEBANON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BASEMENT FLOODING AT A RIDGE TOP HOUSE ON NORTHEAST SIDE
            OF TOWN.

0210 PM     FLOOD            MILLERSVILLE            40.00N 76.35W
09/30/2010                   LANCASTER          PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL STREAM FLOODING CAUSED MILLERSVILLE UNIVERSITY TO
            CLOSE FOR THE DAY. A FEW DOWNED TREES AROUND CAMPUS.

&&

JAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
442 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE RED LION           39.95N 76.54W
09/30/2010                   YORK               PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

0100 PM     FLOOD            MECHANICSBURG           40.21N 77.01W
09/30/2010                   CUMBERLAND         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER COVERING HOGESTOWN RD. HOGESTOWN RUN AT BANKFULL
            AND BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER.

0155 PM     FLOOD            1 NE LEBANON            40.35N 76.41W
09/30/2010                   LEBANON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BASEMENT FLOODING AT A RIDGE TOP HOUSE ON NORTHEAST SIDE
            OF TOWN.

0210 PM     FLOOD            MILLERSVILLE            40.00N 76.35W
09/30/2010                   LANCASTER          PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL STREAM FLOODING CAUSED MILLERSVILLE UNIVERSITY TO
            CLOSE FOR THE DAY. A FEW DOWNED TREES AROUND CAMPUS.

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CAMPBELLTOWN            40.28N 76.58W
09/30/2010                   LEBANON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN THE VICINITY OF CAMPBELLTOWN.

&&

CJE/JAK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
614 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

PAZ051>053-056>059-063-065-066-302315-
COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-
MONTOUR PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-YORK PA-
614 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL
AFFECT DAUPHIN...EAST CENTRAL PERRY...LEBANON...NORTHEASTERN
CUMBERLAND...NORTHWESTERN LANCASTER...NORTHWESTERN
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN MONTOUR...SOUTHERN COLUMBIA...SOUTHERN
NORTHUMBERLAND AND WESTERN SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 609 PM EDT...A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WERE
LOCATED FROM SELINSGROVE TO LINGLESTOWN TO LEMOYNE TO WEIGELSTOWN TO
HANOVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

BRIEF AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR
FARNSWORTH...STONINGTON... SNYDERTOWN...AND TREVORTON AROUND 620
PM...ELYSBURG... SNYDERTOWN...FERNDALE...AND LECK KILL AROUND 630
PM...KNOEBELS GROVE AND SHAMOKIN AROUND 640 PM.

LAT...LON 3973 7693 4017 7706 4066 7692 4072 7685
      4079 7686 4111 7623 4097 7622 4074 7631
      4053 7632 4049 7643 4031 7635 4001 7638

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
615 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE RED LION           39.95N 76.54W
09/30/2010                   YORK               PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

0100 PM     FLOOD            MECHANICSBURG           40.21N 77.01W
09/30/2010                   CUMBERLAND         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER COVERING HOGESTOWN RD. HOGESTOWN RUN AT BANKFULL
            AND BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER.

0155 PM     FLOOD            1 NE LEBANON            40.35N 76.41W
09/30/2010                   LEBANON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BASEMENT FLOODING AT A RIDGE TOP HOUSE ON NORTHEAST SIDE
            OF TOWN.

0210 PM     FLOOD            MILLERSVILLE            40.00N 76.35W
09/30/2010                   LANCASTER          PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL STREAM FLOODING CAUSED MILLERSVILLE UNIVERSITY TO
            CLOSE FOR THE DAY. A FEW DOWNED TREES AROUND CAMPUS.

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CAMPBELLTOWN            40.28N 76.58W
09/30/2010                   LEBANON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN THE VICINITY OF CAMPBELLTOWN.

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TREMONT                 40.63N 76.39W
09/30/2010                   SCHUYLKILL         PA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES REPORTED IN
            TREMONT AND PINE GROVE.

0515 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LOCK HAVEN              41.14N 77.45W
09/30/2010                   CLINTON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            URBAN FLOODING WITH SIGNIFICANT WATER ON SEVERAL ROADS
            REPORTED.

0415 PM     FLASH FLOOD      STATE COLLEGE           40.79N 77.86W
09/30/2010                   CENTRE             PA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ONE LANE OF COLLEGE AVE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ONE MILE
            EAST OF STATE COLLEGE.

&&

CJE/JAK