Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
SPREAD SHOWERS...OR EVEN A FEW PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN...INTO THE
STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING GRADUAL CLEARING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM BUT EXPECT TO BE
ABLE TO TRIM AWAY AT THAT THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF
ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR TODAY AND THE STORMS ARE MAKING IT TO THE
EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TYPICALLY 15 TO 20 KTS SO EXPECT DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN QUICKLY. DEWPOINTS DROPPED INTO THE 50S OVER WESTERN PA
THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT WITH 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
FOR TUESDAY AS AN EAST/WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PWATS DIP TO AOB 20 MM ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN / OR -1 TO -2 ST DEVIATIONS/. A SHARP
GRADIENT TWD HIGHER PWAT AIR /AND PERHAPS SOME STUBBORN AND THICKER
CLOUD COVER/ WILL EXIST ACROSS WVA AND NRN VA NEAR A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPERR 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDES ENE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...A LLVL EAST TO SE FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE
THERMALLY DIRECT CELL OF ANOTHER JET STREAK RACING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST. SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA /OR EVEN PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN/
DEVELOP FROM THE WEST OR SW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN
UVVEL WITH THE UPPER JET DEEPENS/BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS THE
REGION...AND A SFC WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS VA.

EC AND SREF COMBO ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMTS AND NRN
EXTENT OF THE RAIN...THOUGH EVEN THESE TWO...WETTER SOLUTIONS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CURRENT MODEL RUN WITH THE FURTHER
SOUTH GFS/NAM/GEM MODELS. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY AND MUCH
LIGHTER ACROSS THE NORTH WED AND WED NIGHT...WHILE STEADIER AND
HEAVIER RAIN /AND PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED TSRA/ OCCURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. QPF TOTALS BY 12Z THURSDAY COULD BE IN THE 0.5-1.0
INCH RANGE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 81.

ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES SITUATED FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

TEMPS AND HUMIDITY RAMP UP AGAIN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A
SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KMDT WILL HAVE CFROPA BY 20Z...BUT WILL SEE TSRA BEFORE
THAT...MAINLY BEFORE 19Z. ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. EVEN THEN...THE DRYING OCCURRING NOW WILL
PRECLUDE FOG - ESP IFR FOG - FROM MOST SITES. THE COOL TEMPS DUE
TO HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING IN FM THE W AND RESULTING LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE NRN MTS. SO...KIPT MAY GET
A LITTLE FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE
DAYTIME ON WED. RIVER VALLEY FOG PSBL EACH AM IN THE N.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED-FRI...MVFR-IFR PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/TYBURSKI
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...DANGELO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
129 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
171730-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
129 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ028-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-171730-
JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
129 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 619 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
240 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

PAZ057-161930-
DAUPHIN PA-
240 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN DAUPHIN COUNTY...

AT 237 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MILLERSBURG...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ELIZABETHVILLE AROUND 300
PM...LYKENS AROUND 320 PM AND WILLIAMSTOWN AROUND 330 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT ROUTE 209 FROM MILLERSBURG TO NEAR WILLIAMSTOWN.

LAT...LON 4042 7676 4052 7698 4061 7695 4065 7670
      4056 7655

FORECASTER: DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
251 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

PAZ035-036-161915-
FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
251 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN FULTON
COUNTIES...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVERED SOUTHERN FRANKLIN AND FULTON
COUNTIES AT 250 PM EDT. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE GENERALLY
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 163 AND 170...I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1
AND 22.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 11 FROM THE
MARYLAND BORDER TO NORTH OF CHAMBERSBURG...ROUTE 522 FROM THE
MARYLAND BORDER TO NORTH OF MCCONNELLSBURG...ROUTE 30 FROM WEST OF
MCCONNELLSBURG TO FAYETTEVILLE.

LAT...LON 4000 7750 3973 7747 3973 7835 4001 7802

FORECASTER: DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
319 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

PAZ036-063-064-162015-
ADAMS PA-CUMBERLAND PA-FRANKLIN PA-
319 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ADAMS...SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN
AND WESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 316 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SHIPPENSBURG. ANOTHER
STRONG STORM WAS OVER SOUTH MOUNTAIN. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL...AND
WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE
RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 216 AND 225...I-81 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 25 AND 49.  THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR
ROADS...ROUTE 11...ROUTE 15...ROUTE 30...STATE ROAD 94...STATE ROAD
97.

LAT...LON 4009 7755 4029 7720 4029 7718 4009 7711
      4007 7714 4006 7710 3972 7700 3972 7746

FORECASTER: DANGELO

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