Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
349 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER TOMORROW. THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN LATER THIS WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE VERY WARM 8-10C AIR AT 700 HPA APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO KEEP
SOUTHERN AREAS CAPPED AND THUS MOSTLY SUNNY AND THUNDER FREE.
FARTHER NORTH AND IN THE NORTHWEST...LESS STABLE AIR HAS ALLOWED
STORMS TO FORM AND EVOLVE. MOST GET FAIRLY BIG AND A FEW HAVE
PERSISTED AND DEVELOPED SOME ROTATION. NO BIG STORMS OR REPORTS OF
PROBLEMS.

THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA ARE UNDER A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. SO FAR BEEN SPOTTY BUT IT IS ONLY MID-
AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND MONITOR STORMS AND SEE HOW IT
EVOLVES AS THE FRONT IS STILL TO OUR WEST.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 60S IN THE NW AND MID 70S
IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE 10 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD END BEFORE OR JUST 1-2 HOURS INTO
THIS PERIOD.

CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A PASSING RIDGE...AND ABOVE NORMAL
850 AND 700 HPA TEMPS FOR THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION
DOWN. 850 HPA TEMPS CLIMB TO OVER 18C ALONG MD BORDER. HOT
AFTERNOON. WARM AIR AT 700 HPA MOVES IN OVER NIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

850 HPA TEMPS PEAK NEAR 20C SOME MODELS SHOW 22C OVER SOUTHERN AND
SE AREAS. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A HOT DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
PERIOD...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GRADUALLY EXPANDS INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE GRT LKS INTO THE MID-ATLC SAT/SUN.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL LOOK VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH HEAT
INDEX/APPARENT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 100F OVER THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A
HEAT-RELATED HEADLINE. AIR QUALITY WILL LIKELY BE VERY POOR. THE
WEEKEND FROPA IS EXPECTED TO PENETRATE INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE AREA
IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. AFTER THE
SHOWERS CLEAR THE REGION...THE LOW CLOUD DECKS AND THE MVFR FOG WILL
LIFT...ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME PREDOMINANTLY VFR.

AT AROUND 15Z...ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN DEVELOP...AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE. THIS PATTERN WILL GIVE THUNDERSTORMS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

NONETHELESS...MOST AIRFIELDS SHOULD BE UNDER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH SOME LOCALIZED MVFR AND IFR IN
SHRA/TSRA.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION
SOON AFTER SUNSET...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF LOW CEILINGS AND
MVFR FOG ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MAINLY VFR.
THU NIGHT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSS IN SCTD SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...TYBURSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
135 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

PAZ024>028-033>036-056-063>065-221745-
CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-
FRANKLIN-PERRY-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
135 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PREDOMINATE HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND OR EVEN AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO A SECONDARY
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 95 TO 100 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-221745-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
135 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PAZ017>019-045-046-049>053-057>059-066-221745-
CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-LANCASTER-
135 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 95 TO 100 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
232 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

PAZ005-010-211900-
ELK PA-MCKEAN PA-
232 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ELK AND SOUTHERN
MCKEAN COUNTIES...

AT 227 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR KANE...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WILCOX AROUND 245 PM...MOUNT JEWETT AROUND
250 PM AND KINZUA BRIDGE STATE PARK AROUND 255 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 219...
STATE ROAD 66.

LAT...LON 4177 7839 4162 7837 4162 7842 4154 7843
      4154 7895 4172 7896

FORECASTER:  RHG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

PAZ005-006-037-211915-
MCKEAN PA-POTTER PA-TIOGA PA-
239 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL POTTER...EAST CENTRAL
MCKEAN AND WEST CENTRAL TIOGA COUNTIES...

AT 236 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BRADFORD...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ROULETTE AROUND 245 PM...COUDERSPORT AROUND
255 PM...LYMAN RUN STATE PARK AROUND 305 PM AND GALETON AROUND 315
PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT ROUTE 6.

LAT...LON 4180 7755 4158 7761 4171 7840 4189 7836

FORECASTER: RHG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
252 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

PAZ004>006-010>012-211915-
CAMERON PA-ELK PA-MCKEAN PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-POTTER PA-WARREN PA-
252 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CAMERON...NORTHERN ELK...
NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...SOUTHEASTERN WARREN...SOUTHWESTERN MCKEAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTIES...

AT 250 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
KANE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR JAMES CITY AROUND 305 PM...WILCOX AROUND 310
PM AND JOHNSONBURG AROUND 315 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 219...STATE ROAD
66...STATE ROAD 120...STATE ROAD 255.

LAT...LON 4158 7791 4126 7802 4145 7897 4162 7896
      4162 7898 4163 7913 4167 7912

FORECASTER: RHG

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