River Flood Warning 19, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EST MON JAN 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL TURN RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID-WEEK ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY MAY
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WERN
MTNS...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVE AS COLD AIR
SURGES INTO THE CWA. LIGHT ACCUMS PSBL ESP OVR THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND NW SNOWBELT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTS ACROSS WRN PA ON TUE BRINGING IN ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -10C BY 00Z WED
OVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL CONTINUE ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD SEE
NO MORE THAN A FLURRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD CYC FLOW WILL CONT TO BRING LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOWS
TO THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO TUE NIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF /BRIEFLY/ ON WED.

A PERIOD OF WAA SNOW APPEARS LKLY OVER WEST-CENTRAL PENN AHEAD OF
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WED NGT INTO EARLY THUR...FOLLOWED BY MORE
LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THUR NGT. HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FM THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY.

ALL MDL AND ENSEMBLE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING GULF
COAST LOW PRES SYS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN MID-ATLC/COASTAL TRACK AS NOTED IN THE HIGH
SPREAD IN THE GEFS ENS MEMBERS. LATEST CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE NW
PERIPHERY OF THE DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD. THE SOUTH/EAST HALF OF
THE CWA HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SNOW ATTM...BUT IF A WWD
SHIFT IN LOW TRACK IS OBSERVED THAN ALL OF THE AREA WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SNOW. THIS HAS BEEN THE GENERAL TREND SO FAR THIS
WINTER...BUT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE UNTIL THE SPLIT
STREAM PATTERN AND PHASING BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT EAST OF CENTRAL PA WITH A W/NW FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
OVERNIGHT. AT 00Z...AIRFIELDS ARE ALL VFR. BUT MVFR WILL RETURN TO
THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND 06Z AS UPPER LOW SLIDES
OVERHEAD. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT KBFD/KJST. FURTHER
EAST CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT
KAOO/KUNV BETERRN 06-12Z. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS PERSIST
INTO TUE NIGHT AT KJST/KBFD.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR. WDLY SCT MVFR SNOW SNOWERS IN WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
THU...MVFR LIGHT SNOW N AND W MTNS...VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...VFR.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS CENTRAL PENN.
HOWEVER AREA WATERWAYS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THIS EVENING WITH
CRESTS OCCURRING TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. AREAL AND POINT SPECIFIC
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EST MON JAN 25 2010

PAZ006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-262030-
POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
316 PM EST MON JAN 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ004-005-262030-
WARREN-MCKEAN-
316 PM EST MON JAN 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MS