Wind Advisory 4, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

479 
WWUS74 KCRP 291647
NPWCRP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1047 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2010

TXZ242>244-291800-
/O.CAN.KCRP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-100129T2100Z/
KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...
PORTLAND...INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS
1047 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS CANCELLED THE
WIND ADVISORY. 

WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TO 20 TO 30 MPH...BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

$$

JR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1054 PM CST THU JAN 28 2010

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND IS JUST NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM UVALDE TO HONDO TO SAN
ANTONIO. FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE OFFSHORE BY 16Z FRIDAY MORNING. SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH AND REDUCING VSBYS TO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES. OTHERWISE,
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CST THU JAN 28 2010/

DISCUSSION...CONTINUING TO MONITOR POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL DOPPLER MOSAIC IS
SHOWING NEARLY A CONTINUOUS LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME, ANY LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
IS AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA THOUGH IT IS STILL FAR TO THE WEST OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO,
HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL TO OUR
NORTH.

CORPUS CHRISTI 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
BETWEEN 800 TO 650 MILLIBARS THAT WILL BE INCREASINGLY TOUGH TO
BREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER, AN UPPER JETSTREAK CAUSING SOME CLOUD ENHANCEMENT
CURRENTLY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT IF THE JET
OVERLAYS THE FRONT JUST RIGHT. OTHERWISE, STREAMER SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT.

FORECASTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY/CATEGORICAL LEVELS OF PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN BETTER INSTABILITY/UPPER
DYNAMICS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE IN SOME LOCATIONS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1 INCH ALONG THE COASTAL BEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CST THU JAN 28 2010/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
THIS EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE INLAND PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL BEND WILL BECOME PREVALENT OVER SOUTH TEXAS
AROUND 03Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS EVENING BUT RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. THREAT FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY LATER THIS EVENING AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO COAHUILA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO. SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOP
FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY BACK INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST MEXICO COULD TRANSFORM INTO A LINE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WILL SHOW TEMPO REMARK FOR POSSIBLE STRONG
STORMS WITH IFR VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS MAINLY
NORTH OF A COTULLA TO PORT LAVACA LINE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO AROUND DAYBREAK. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS BY 08/09Z AND BE THROUGH THE
COASTAL AREAS BY 14/15Z. LOW MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL IN THE POST
FRONTAL REGION FOR 4 TO 6 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER
SOUTH TEXAS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE MID COAST
REGION WHERE HIGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST THU JAN 28 2010/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING IN THE WIND ADVISORY AREA AND WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE (HOWEVER WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING). ALL EYES ON COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO COME
THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY
MID MORNING FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS BENEATH WEAKENING CAP ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ATTENTION IS MAINLY ON LATE THIS EVENING FOR POSSIBLE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION/SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
BRUSH COUNTRY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE IS DECENT INSTABILITY CURRENTLY POOLED OUT ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND WINDS ARE
FORECASTED TO BACK EASTERLY AFTER 00Z WITH WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH. CORFIDI VECTORS HINT THAT LINE DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU COULD GRADUALLY BUILD/PROPAGATE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LA SALLE...MCMULLEN AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN WEBB
COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE
TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAIN THREAT BY TIME LINE
REACHED THE NORTHWEST CWA WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE A
SMALL HAIL THREAT. GFS AND TO LESSER EXTENT NAM12 INDICATE MODEST
POOLING OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALL THE WAY INTO THE 06Z-12Z
TIME FRONT...SO STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
BY THAT POINT IS THE CAP RE-STRENGTHENING. HAVE INCLUDED SEVERE
MENTION IN THE ZONES FOR THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AS WELL AS
WEBB AND DUVAL.

12Z NAM12 WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED WITH A FASTER TIMING IF DECENT COLD POOL WITH THE LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED AND HELPED ACCELERATE THE FRONT.
AS A RESULT...LOW/HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IS LOW CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDING WEST TO EAST MIDDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOLID SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE WATERS (POSSIBLE GUSTS
NEAR GALE OFFSHORE). MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING FROM VICTORIA TO COTULLA.
WINDS WILL STAY UP ALONG THE COAST...BUT STILL A CHILLY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A COOL AND DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AS A CHILLY SFC RDG AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE AREA.  A LIGHT FREEZE IS LKLY ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL BEND
AND NRN BRUSH COUNTRY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.  THE BROAD
SFC RDG AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WL BEGIN
TO RETREAT BY SUN AFTN/EVE AND ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF.  MOISTURE WL THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW INCREASES.  MODERATE TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND AN APPROACHING SRN STREAM S/WV FROM
MEXICO WL LEAD TO PCPN DEVELOPING ON SUN NIGHT AND MON.  MORE
SUBSTANTIAL S/WV ENERGY PUSHING INTO MEXICO ON TUE AND WED WL LEAD
TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID/UPR TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MEXICO.  THIS
WL LEAD TO CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX AND THE ADJACENT WATERS
BY WED. THE RESULTING STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING AND COPIOUS MOISTURE
WL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TUE NIGHT AND
PEAKING ON WED.  MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS ADDED CONFIDENCE
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH IMPACT EVENT ON WED.  DUE TO THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF THIS EVENT OCCURRING...WL OPT TO GO WITH LKLY POPS FOR
DAY 7.  GENERALLY FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE FCST PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    58  59  38  54  35  /  40  80   0  10  10
VICTORIA          55  56  33  52  31  /  80  90   0  10  10
LAREDO            53  54  39  61  38  /  60  20   0  10  10
ALICE             56  57  37  56  33  /  60  60   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          59  60  37  53  36  /  40  80   0  10  10
COTULLA           48  54  33  58  33  /  80  20   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        57  58  39  55  34  /  40  70   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       61  61  40  54  39  /  40  80   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O'CONNOR.

&&

JAR/19...SHORT TERM/AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
411 PM CST THU JAN 28 2010

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-291200-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
411 PM CST THU JAN 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVERNIGHT ALONG AN NORTH OF A
VICTORIA TO LAREDO LINE...AND PRODUCED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A VICTORIA TO LAREDO LINE.

JR