Tornado Warning 11, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
826 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED PRODUCTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249
TIL 3 AM. TWO LINES OF CONVECTION NEAR RIO GRANDE AND HILL COUNTRY
LIKELY TO MERGE SOMEWHAT WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP TO BREAK STRONG
CAP. THUS...EXPECT MAIN CONCERN TO BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN HIGH
WET BULB VALUES...BUT HAIL STILL A CONCERN IF ENOUGH COOLING
OCCURS AT MID LEVELS. PRODUCTS OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...TSRA CHCS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. TSRA'S CURRENTLY IN MEX ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN CWA BTWN 00Z AND 02Z. LRD TAF SITE IS EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND 00Z DUE TO TSRA'S.
ALI...VCT...CRP TAF'S SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE TSRA'S LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS STORMS IN MEX MOVE E AND STORMS N OF SAN
ANTONIO MOVE SE INTO S TX. RAIN CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM W TO
E THRU THURSDAY MORNING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BY THU
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EVENING OWING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS (ACTIVITY ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND 0-6KM SHEAR VECTOR POINTS SE)...
WITH UPPER SUBSIDENCE (PER STREAMLINE/WATER VAPOR DATA) AS THE
LIMITING FACTOR. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NORTH/CNTRL TEXAS
OWING TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALREADY
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS. AN MCS WILL LIKELY TREK
SOUTHWARD TNGT AND CONTRIBUTE TO STG/SVR CONVECTION OVER THE CWFA
OVERNIGHT...ESP OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS BASED ON LIKELY
TRAJECTORY OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/CORFIDI VECTORS.
INCLUDED SVR WORDING AREAWIDE FOR TNGT. THE GFS PROGS THE UPPER
SYSTEM TO TREK SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT OVER THE ERN CWFA. THUS...MAINTAIN ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER
ESP THE CNTRL/EAST WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST DRG
THE DAY (CAVEAT...AN MCS MOVG OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT MIGHT RESULT
IN BRIEF PERIOD OF STABILITY MID MORNIG THURSDAY.) ISSUED SPS
EARLIER FOR 105-109F HEAT INDEX VALUES UNTIL 00Z THU.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY...
SANDWICHED BETWEEN CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN GULF RIDGE AND A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND TEXAS. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH DRY...SUBSIDENT AND
HOT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MODEL CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO THE
FORECASTED UPPER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF NOW
SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING BACK TO THE WEST AND
CUTTING OFF INLAND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY...AND THEN DRIFTING
OUT NEAR THE RIO GRANDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SETS UP A
WETTER FORECAST BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MONDAY ACROSS THE GULF AND
COASTAL BEND...BUT ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH TEXAS. THE 12Z CANADIAN HAS TRENDED THE SAME WAY...DRIFTING
THE TROUGH BACK TO THE WEST AND CUTTING OFF A LOW. THE 12Z GFS ALSO
HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND STRETCHES A WEAKER TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
BENEATH THE RIDGE...BUT IS ALSO DRIER WITH THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
GIVEN THE TREND TOWARDS THE TROUGH DRIFTING BACK INLAND HAVE
INTRODUCED 20 POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE MARINE AND COASTAL BEND
ON MONDAY...AND ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  90  76  91  76  /  70  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          69  89  73  92  74  /  80  40  10  10  10
LAREDO            74 100  80 101  80  /  90  10  10  10  10
ALICE             71  94  75  92  75  /  70  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          73  89  78  89  79  /  70  40  10  10  10
COTULLA           69  96  74  96  74  /  90  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  94  76  95  77  /  70  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       75  86  78  89  79  /  70  30  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
343 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-032045-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
343 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LINE FROM
ROCKPORT TO BEEVILLE. THE PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. THE BULK OF ANY SEVERE ST ROMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERWARD...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY
RAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 37.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

87

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
920 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             1 W LAREDO              27.53N 99.50W
06/02/2010  M0.75 INCH       WEBB               TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

CCORDERO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
959 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE FREER             27.87N 98.61W
06/02/2010                   DUVAL              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE LIMBS KNOCKED DOWN.

&&

CCORDERO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1041 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE GEORGE WEST        28.38N 98.05W
06/02/2010                   LIVE OAK           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE REPORTED KNOCKED DOWN NEAR FM799

&&

CCORDERO

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