Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
238 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL
AIR MASS (PWATS 2.7-2.8 INCHES) WL BEGIN SHIFTING NORTH OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...BEGAN TRENDING DOWN POPS INTO MORE OF
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TNT.  THIS IS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE POPS. WL
THUS LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 03Z. A SIGNIFICANT LULL IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE LKLY THIS EVENING GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY LYR AND LIMITED FOCUS.  SCATTERED MOSTLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS STILL LKLY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE (PWATS 2-2.2 INCHES) STILL EXISTS ALONG WITH AN UNCAPPED
AIR MASS.  TEMPS WL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY GIVEN THE WET SOILS. WL LET THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVY
EXPIRE AT 06Z SINCE MOST COASTAL AREAS WL BE MOSTLY BELOW 2 FEET MSL
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...A SLOW DECAY IN SWELLS WL OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. WL
FINALLY DROP SEAS BELOW 7 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WL BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AT LEAST CAUTIONARY (15 TO 20 KT) CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL START NOSING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT PWATS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THETA-E RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SIERRA MADRE
SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THERE AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS
THE AREA SO WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST EVEN WITH
DECREASING PWATS.

THE RIDGE STARTS PUSHING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AS A TROUGH
SWINGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF
ARE DRIER ON MONDAY THAN THE GFS IS WITH AROUND 1.7-1.8 INCH
PWATS...WHILE THE GFS STILL HAS PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. EITHER
WAY...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE EAST. MODELS THEN SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF TUESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND EVEN THE GFS TO A LESSER DEGREE SHOW A
TROPICAL WAVE COMING OFF THE YUCATAN ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY IN A
SIMILAR LOCATION TO WHERE ALEX CAME OFF AT. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
THEN DEVELOP THIS INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS WESTERN
GULF BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SHOW THIS COMING ASHORE IN BASICALLY THE SAME AREA THAT ALEX DID BUT
THE TIMING IS NOT THE SAME. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF
ANYTHING DEVELOPS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUMPED UP POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR THE EXTENDED SINCE MULTIPLE MODELS SHOW THIS
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  89  78  91  79  /  30  40  20  40  20
VICTORIA          78  88  76  90  77  /  50  40  20  40  20
LAREDO            79  93  79  96  79  /  40  40  30  30  20
ALICE             79  91  76  92  77  /  40  40  20  40  20
ROCKPORT          82  89  82  88  83  /  40  40  20  30  20
COTULLA           77  91  75  91  76  /  50  40  30  40  20
KINGSVILLE        81  91  79  95  79  /  30  40  20  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  89  83  89  81  /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

MB/80...SHORT TERM
AK/84...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
518 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-031030-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
518 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEARSHORE
AND OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

TXZ229>234-239>247-031030-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
518 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THIS LATE AFTERNOON
DUE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAINFALL. MANY AREAS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS HAVE ALREADY BEEN INUNDATED WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES
RAIN OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE TRAINING OF SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH THIS LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE
DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SC/CB

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