Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
312 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...NICE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO AREA HAS PRODUCED
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN CWA. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS ASSISTING IN LIFT IN A MOIST AND UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CEA. GIVEN THE MID/UPPER 60
DEGREE TEMPS WITH THIS COLD POOL TO THE NORTH AND CONVECTION
ONGOING IN THE NORTHERN CWA...ANTICIPATING NOW THAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COULD WORK FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA AND INLAND COASTAL COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE TO SEE IF
IT MAKES A RUN AT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
APPROACHING. NOT CONFIDENT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL REACH ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST...AS IT WILL ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE MARINE
LAYER. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
YET ONLY WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL. MODELS
MISSED MESOSCALE FEATURE OF THE OUTLFOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION...AND DO NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON THE SHORT FUSED FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HAVE
THEREFORE THROWN MODEL SOLUTIONS OUT THE WINDOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT
AND BASING FORECAST ON RADAR TRENDS AND THOUGHTS ABOVE. SLIGHT
DRYING OCCURS TOMORROW ALONG WITH WARMING AT 700MB. CONVECTION
WILL BE PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN TOMORROW BY ANY WEAK BOUNDARIES LEFT
OVER IN THE MORNING...AND THE SEA-BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE EXTENDED PART OF
THE FCST WL HINGE ON THE TIMING OF S/WVS...THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND
THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.  ALL OF THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME SORT
OF ISSUE WITH THESE IN THE SHORT TERM.  THIS MAKES THE LONG RANGE
PART OF THE FCST A BIT ON THE LOW CONFIDENCE SIDE.  THE ECMWF SOLN
REMAINS THE WETTEST SOLN AND DEPICTS CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA
NEARLY EVERY DAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS QUITE DRY THROUGH THE PD.  WL
OPT FOR A COMPROMISE SOLN AND GO WITH A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST PD AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.  THE CAP MAY BE TOO STRONG TO BREAK BUT WL KEEP IN
ISOLATED CONVECTION GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODELS.  WHILE
THERE MAY BE HIGHER INSTANCES OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT...IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO MENTION CHC POPS FOR
THESE PDS GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE
MODELS. WL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE
PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  86  74  88  74  /  50  20  20  20  20
VICTORIA          69  86  73  87  72  /  40  40  20  20  30
LAREDO            75  98  75  98  76  /  50  10  20  20  20
ALICE             71  91  73  91  72  /  50  20  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          74  85  77  86  76  /  40  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           69  92  72  91  72  /  30  10  20  20  30
KINGSVILLE        73  90  73  91  72  /  50  20  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  85  77  86  76  /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

JR/76...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
405 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-151015-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
405 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TXZ229>234-239>247-151015-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
405 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A PORT LAVACA TO ALICE LINE...
WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. IN ADDITION...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JR

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