Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
312 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...NICE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO AREA HAS PRODUCED
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN CWA. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS ASSISTING IN LIFT IN A MOIST AND UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CEA. GIVEN THE MID/UPPER 60
DEGREE TEMPS WITH THIS COLD POOL TO THE NORTH AND CONVECTION
ONGOING IN THE NORTHERN CWA...ANTICIPATING NOW THAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COULD WORK FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA AND INLAND COASTAL COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE TO SEE IF
IT MAKES A RUN AT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
APPROACHING. NOT CONFIDENT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL REACH ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST...AS IT WILL ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE MARINE
LAYER. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
YET ONLY WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL. MODELS
MISSED MESOSCALE FEATURE OF THE OUTLFOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION...AND DO NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON THE SHORT FUSED FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HAVE
THEREFORE THROWN MODEL SOLUTIONS OUT THE WINDOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT
AND BASING FORECAST ON RADAR TRENDS AND THOUGHTS ABOVE. SLIGHT
DRYING OCCURS TOMORROW ALONG WITH WARMING AT 700MB. CONVECTION
WILL BE PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN TOMORROW BY ANY WEAK BOUNDARIES LEFT
OVER IN THE MORNING...AND THE SEA-BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE EXTENDED PART OF
THE FCST WL HINGE ON THE TIMING OF S/WVS...THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND
THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.  ALL OF THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME SORT
OF ISSUE WITH THESE IN THE SHORT TERM.  THIS MAKES THE LONG RANGE
PART OF THE FCST A BIT ON THE LOW CONFIDENCE SIDE.  THE ECMWF SOLN
REMAINS THE WETTEST SOLN AND DEPICTS CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA
NEARLY EVERY DAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS QUITE DRY THROUGH THE PD.  WL
OPT FOR A COMPROMISE SOLN AND GO WITH A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST PD AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.  THE CAP MAY BE TOO STRONG TO BREAK BUT WL KEEP IN
ISOLATED CONVECTION GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODELS.  WHILE
THERE MAY BE HIGHER INSTANCES OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT...IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO MENTION CHC POPS FOR
THESE PDS GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE
MODELS. WL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE
PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  86  74  88  74  /  50  20  20  20  20
VICTORIA          69  86  73  87  72  /  40  40  20  20  30
LAREDO            75  98  75  98  76  /  50  10  20  20  20
ALICE             71  91  73  91  72  /  50  20  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          74  85  77  86  76  /  40  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           69  92  72  91  72  /  30  10  20  20  30
KINGSVILLE        73  90  73  91  72  /  50  20  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  85  77  86  76  /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

JR/76...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
153 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

TXZ229-142000-
LA SALLE-
153 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING LA SALLE COUNTY...

AT 152 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ZELLA...OR 18 MILES EAST OF
DILLEY...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
205 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

TXZ230-141930-
MCMULLEN-
205 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING MCMULLEN COUNTY...

AT 202 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ZELLA...OR 10 MILES WEST OF
TILDEN...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED.

AK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
230 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

TXZ229-230-142000-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-
230 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING LA SALLE AND MCMULLEN
COUNTIES...

AT 225 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ZELLA...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TILDEN...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED.

AK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
310 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

TXZ234-142100-
VICTORIA-
310 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING VICTORIA COUNTY...

AT 303 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SALEM...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF VICTORIA...
MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

AK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

TXZ234-142115-
VICTORIA-
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING VICTORIA COUNTY...

AT 327 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SALEM...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF VICTORIA...
MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY SPOTTERS
NEAR INEZ.

AK