Small Craft Advisory 30, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
311 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT OVER MICHIGAN AND ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE
FROM NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THIS LINE
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE INCLUDED IN
FUTURE WATCHES AS THOSE AREAS CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT IN
THE SEVERE WEATHER AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION.

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FOLLOWS. I ANTICIPATE THAT WE SHOULD
START TO SEE SOME CLEARING TOWARD SUNRISE FROM WEST TO EAST.

850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 5 DEGREES C OVERNIGHT AND IT
APPEARS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. BASED ON THIS...I DROPPED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ABOUT
4 OR 5 DEGREES INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION RATHER QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY AND A RETURN BACK TO FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. THE
HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE UNTIL ABOUT FRIDAY.

THE TREND SO FAR IS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN
SLIGHTLY. I AM STILL GOING TO KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS GOING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. WILL START
TO SEE SOME INCREASING TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE ON A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY ARE THE PIECES OF JET ENERGY THAT PASS THROUGH
THE FLOW. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A BRIEF TIME OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO OCCUR ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION ALREADY GETTING STARTED ACROSS THE REGION WHERE ANY
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. BELIEVE MOST SITES WILL AT
LEAST BE CLIPPED BY A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOULD BE AT LEAST BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY
RAINFALL...STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL ADD THIS DETAIL TO THE TAF SITES WHERE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE FRONT PASSES EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH. MAY BE SOME MVFR CLOUD COVER NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 18 KNOT
RANGE SHOULD PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. WAVES HAVE
FAILED TO BUILD TO THE 3-5 FEET RANGE SO WILL DROP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 12 TO 20 KNOTS AND PERSIST UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE MAY REACH 5 FEET SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SINCE THE NEARSHORE WILL BE AT THE END OF THE FETCH...THE POTENTIAL
FOR RIP CURRENTS IS FAIRLY HIGH. WITH FAIR WEATHER AND WARM
WATER...SWIMMERS WILL NEED TO BE EXTRA CAUTIOUS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION INTO MONDAY AND PRODUCE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...REL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
318 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

OHZ003-006>008-282130-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOLEDO...BOWLING GREEN...PORT CLINTON...
FREMONT
318 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE TOLEDO METRO AREA...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST OHIO. IF THESE STORMS CONTINUE THEIR
CURRENT MOTION...THEY WILL ARRIVE IN THE TOLEDO METRO AREA IN
BETWEEN 4PM AND 5PM THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 545 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA
UNTIL 8PM.

GARNET