Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1209 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT FROM THIS LOW
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER STILL EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER IS NOW INDICATING THE MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS
BEEN EXTENDED EAST ACROSS OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA.

THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING FROM WILMINGTON INDICATED LI VALUES OF -7
AND CAPE PUSHING 4000. WE ARE SEEING AN OCCASIONAL BREAK OF
SUNSHINE AND THIS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE AROUND
80 DEGREE MARK. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER STILL EXISTS
UPSTREAM SO GETTING AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF SUNSHINE DOES NOT LOOK
TO PROMISING.

SPENES GRAPHIC...SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE...INDICATES A
SWATH THAT TOUCHES OUR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IS AT
RISK FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA
IS WHERE THE GREATEST PLUME OF MOISTURE EXISTS AND APPEARS TO BE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DIES DOWN THIS EVENING...WILL HAVE
TO DEAL WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA TO SEE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF TWICE THAT AMOUNT ARE POSSIBLE. FLOOD WATCH ALREADY OUT
AND GOES THROUGH NOON ON SUNDAY. EXPECT THINGS TO BEGIN TO DRY OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW MORNING. LOOKS LIKE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DEW POINT TEMPS
WILL FINALLY FALL THROUGH THE 50S AS THE HIGH BUILDS. NEXT THREAT
FOR PRECIP WILL PROBABLY BE ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE TEMPS TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY MOVING NEAR THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WHILE RETURN MOIST FLOW JUST BEGINS FRIDAY SO I DON'T THINK
WE'LL SEE ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS YET.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA TONIGHT AND LINGER OVER THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT. WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL GENERALLY BE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THROUGH LIKELY HOLDING OFF IN
THE EAST UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...A THETA-E MAX EXTENDING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE QUITE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR SUNDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY REACH 10 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE BUT
NEARSHORE WATER PROBABLY WON'T BE TOO CHOPPY. HOWEVER THE CONCERN
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BE LOCALLY HIGHER WIND AND WAVES WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE WAVES
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLY LATE TONIGHT BUT MORE
LIKELY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...RANDEL
AVIATION...RANDEL
MARINE...RANDEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
551 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-061000-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
551 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND EVEN TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NORTHWEST OHIO IN
A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-061000-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
551 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.