Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Cleveland, OH

270 
WWUS51 KCLE 140816
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
416 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

OHC007-035-055-085-099-103-133-153-155-140845-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-100514T0845Z/
MAHONING OH-MEDINA OH-SUMMIT OH-PORTAGE OH-TRUMBULL OH-CUYAHOGA OH-
GEAUGA OH-LAKE OH-ASHTABULA OH-
416 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM EDT
FOR ASHTABULA...LAKE...GEAUGA...EASTERN CUYAHOGA...TRUMBULL...
PORTAGE...SUMMIT...EASTERN MEDINA AND MAHONING COUNTIES...

AT 411 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CHESTERLAND TO HIRAM TO RAVENNA
TO BRIMFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE...WEST
FARMINGTON...TURNPIKE INTERCHANGE...SOUTH CANAL...NEWTON FALLS...
NORTH BLOOMFIELD...BRISTOLVILLE...WARREN...LORDSTOWN...VIENNA AND
NILES.

LAT...LON 4194 8053 4106 8053 4090 8058 4094 8108
      4098 8109 4099 8139 4097 8141 4101 8185
      4123 8176 4162 8153 4162 8150 4168 8143
TIME...MOT...LOC 0816Z 277DEG 54KT 4149 8120 4133 8105
          4119 8114 4109 8126

$$

RANDEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
348 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND IS ABOUT TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY STARTED TO DEVELOP RIGHT AFTER SUNSET LAST
EVENING AFTER A VIRTUALLY QUIET EVENING WHEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN RAGING ACROSS THE AREA. APPARENT CAP DEVELOPED AND
NEVER GAVE IN TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.
SURFACE WINDS BEGAN TO PICK UP DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THIS WAS
LIKELY AN INDICATOR THAT THE CAP FINALLY BROKE AND HENCE THE
THUNDERSTORMS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER LAKE ERIE.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SHOWING A BOW SHAPED CHARACTERISTIC.
WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING THE ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
MORNING HOURS AS DRIER AIR PUSHES EAST. I THINK MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID DAY.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE NOT GOING TO BE AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY BUT AIR MASS IS NOT VERY COLD SO I THINK WE WILL RECOVER
NICELY INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.  AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WILL
LIKELY BE COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE
BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR LOWS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD HELP SOME WITH THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.  NOT EXPECTING ANY FROST AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
CAUSE MIXING TO OCCUR.

SATURDAY WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  THIS MEANS INLAND AREAS WILL
SEE ANOTHER MILD DAY IN THE LOWER 70S BUT AREAS IN NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE COOLER IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS TONIGHTS LOWS.
HOWEVER...EXTREME EAST PORTIONS OF CRAWFORD COUNTY MAY HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FROST IF TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S AND CLOUDS DONT RACE IN THERE TOO FAST.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SPREADING SHOWERS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THEN...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE REGION SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO NUDGE
EAST INTO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING A RETURN BACK TO THE 50S FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN A STATE OF CONSTANT
FLUX WITH PROGRESSIVE STORM SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION DURING MID WEEK AND THIS
WILL CAUSE THE MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TAKE ITS TIME EXITING
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.  EVENTUALLY...HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES EAST AND
BRINGS A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER AFTER A THREAT OF SHOWERS EACH DAY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A WARMING TREND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TUESDAY AND 70S WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY.
LOWS WARMING FROM THE 40S TO THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY AROUND 14Z. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE LAST EVENING. AS OF 05Z NO STRONG WINDS REPORTED WITH THE
STORMS BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE THEM OUT. WILL CARRY
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL FRONT PASSES...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS FOR FEW HOURS AFTER FRONT PASSES.
DRY AIR WORKING IN LATER THIS MORNING AND SHOULD HAVE VFR CIGS AND
VSBY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN NON VFR IN
CONVECTION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BEHAVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG. WARM FLOW OVER COLD LAKE
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LAKE STABLE AND KEEP WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING ANY SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...RANDEL
MARINE...LOMBARDY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
805 PM EDT THU MAY 13 2010

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-150015-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
805 PM EDT THU MAY 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. THERE IS LESS OF A THREAT OF TORNADOES COMPARED TO
EARLIER THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.