Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.  A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. RADAR WAS
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. SHOULD ARRIVE IN WESTERN OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
EXITING OUR WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AREA THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SAME HEADLINES THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING WESTERN AREAS AND ADVISORY ELSEWHERE. BESIDES THE THREAT
OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN GENERAL THERE WILL ALSO BE RISK OF HIGHER
WINDS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIMITED CAPE BUT CONVECTION COULD EASILY BRING DOWN HIGHER WIND
THAT ARE JUST ALOFT...GFS HAS 925 MB WINDS NEAR 60KT WITH FRONT.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...POSSIBLY GETTING
LITTLE WARMER IF WE GET MORE SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WESTERN AREAS DRY. SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS BUT THEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS COULD OCCUR AGAIN OVER
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WITH THE POSSIBILITY SLEET MIXING
IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS EXTREME NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURN ON SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CLIMB BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY ON SUNDAY. LOWERED
TEMPERA TUES LITTLE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CLOSE TO THE NEW MOSGUID
TEMPERA TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A N TO S ORIENTED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST
OF MFD SHOULD CONTINUE EAST ACROSS REST OF TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT
00Z. SYNOPTIC WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS MAY INCREASE TO GUSTS
OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS IN THE SEVERE STORMS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BRIEFLY
DROP TO LOW END MVFR OR IFR IN THE STORMS. WILL USE LATEST RADAR AND
SPEEDS TO PROJECT AN HOUR OR TWO TIME FRAME FOR THE STORMS.

DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUSING THE STORMS WILL
QUICKLY BREAK UP THE CLOUDS SO VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME WITH SUNSET. WITH WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT AND WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET OF 40
KNOTS BY THE END OF THE NIGHT IN NW HALF OF OH LLWS LIKELY TO BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE NE OH/NW PA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS FOR THE OHIO WATERS OF LAKE ERIE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL TIGHTEN
THE GRADIENT SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR LOW END SUSTAINED GALES WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF GALE FORCE. GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE OPEN WATERS
NOT SHOWING THE GALES AS IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME
STABLE MARINE LAYER. THIS SYSTEM HAS STRONG POTENTIAL AND WILL ERR
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. THUNDERSTORMS WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS...TOPPING 50 KNOTS. WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE PA
WATERS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG...BUT WILL LIKELY BE GREATER THAN 35
KNOTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT WITH WINDS EXPECTED
TO BE UNDER GALE FORCE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SSW WINDS TO
30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THEN SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL LIKELY RAISE WINDS BACK TO GALE FORCE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
HAVE TO BE CONCERNED WITH LOW WATER IN THE WESTERN BASIN. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF
THE LAKE FOR FRI/SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ011>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142>148-
     162>168.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RANDEL
NEAR TERM...RANDEL
SHORT TERM...RANDEL
LONG TERM...RANDEL
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...OUDEMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
503 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

OHZ011>014-020>023-031>033-038-089-270915-
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-HOLMES-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
503 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUST TO
35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047-270915-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-MARION-MORROW-KNOX-
503 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUST TO
35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

LEZ142>148-162>168-270915-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
503 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

LEZ061-149-169-270915-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
503 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

PAZ001>003-270915-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
503 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUST TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
131 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TIFFIN                  41.12N 83.18W
10/26/2010                   SENECA             OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            12 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN NEAR THE CITY

&&

GARNET

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
149 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST BERLIN HEIGHTS          41.32N 82.49W
10/26/2010  E55.00 MPH       ERIE               OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GARNET