Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Cleveland, OH

216 
WWUS51 KCLE 242019 RRA
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
419 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

PAC049-242029-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-100724T2015Z/
ERIE PA-
419 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA EXPIRES AT 415 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS 
THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD ERIE COUNTY FROM LAKE ERIE.

LAT...LON 4206 7977 4201 8042 4211 8019 4215 8016
      4217 8012 4217 8009 4215 8007 4216 8004
      4222 7993 4223 7985 4227 7978 4227 7975
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 258DEG 35KT 4222 7992

$$

MULLEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
325 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS REACHED SOMEWHAT OF A LULL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
CU DEVELOPMENT IS SEEN ON SATELLITE PICTURES FROM LAKE ERIE INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE CU IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE
AND PREFRONTAL TROF...AND SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH CAPES 2500-3500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY EARLY
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE BY 6 AM. WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM WITH HEAT
INDICIES CONTINUING FROM AROUND 100 TO 103 BEFORE SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY NOON. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS...TAPERING TO CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. SIDED WITH THE
SLOWER ECMWF/NAEFS/HPC SOLUTIONS ATTM. THIS RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IF THE FRONT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THESE
MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED IN LATER FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIFFICULT TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INITIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS IGNITED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NEAR MANSFIELD SOUTHWEST TOWARD MARION. THIS LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WIND
GUSTS. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME THIS ACROSS KMFD...KCAK AND KYNG.
EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST BRIEF IFR WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WE WILL WATCH THE APPROACH OF
A COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE FRONT BUT AT THIS TIME NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IT IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME MVFR FOG ALONG WITH SOME LOWER
CEILINGS. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT IT COULD BE IFR FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW AT
THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
NON-VFR THURSDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A WINDOW OF STRONGER WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS EVENING BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY SUNRISE WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 2 TO 4 FEET AND
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SORT LIVED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IF WINDS
ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY THEN SLIDE
EAST OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHERLY WIND TO RETURN. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WJM
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
541 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-250945-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
541 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THEY WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-PAZ001>003-250945-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
541 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THEY WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.