Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
349 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS NEAR LAKE ERIE AND WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY TONIGHT. DRYING OUT ALOFT SO MANY OF THE STORMS WILL
NOT GET TOO TALL BUT THEY COULD BRING DOWN WIND AND THERE IS SOME
SHEAR. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
WIND SHOULD DIMINISH JUST ENOUGH BY DAYBREAK THAT SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR SO TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
JET TO DRIFT BACK NORTH LATE THIS WEEK. DIVERGENCE ZONE/RING OF FIRE
TO SLIDE BACK NORTH AS WELL. WE SHOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE MOST OF
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS OVERHEAD AND THE AIR MASS IS PROGGED
TO BE STABLE. DEWPOINT WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...IN THE 60S...SO IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY BUT NOT QUITE AS OPPRESSIVE.

VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE MODELS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVE THEM EASTWARD IN THE STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION. RIDGING ALOFT PROGGED TO CONTINUE SO THE
STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP SHARPLY SOUTHEAST BUT
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD CERTAINLY CLIP THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE FARTHER NORTH...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF CLEVELAND AND ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. OFTEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN PULSE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS AND THEY
COULD SPAWN NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. WILL NOT GO AS HIGH
WITH THE POP AS THE GFS/MAV GUIDANCE GIVEN THE PROPENSITY FOR THE
GFS TO BE TOO WET IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN BUT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE/SCATTERED CONVECTION. IN ANY CASE IT WILL GET HOT ON
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 90 TO 95 EXCEPT PERHAPS HOLDING IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE THERE MAY BE
MORE CLOUDS/CONVECTION.

TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE GFS DROPS
THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND IT IS SOUTHEAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER. THE
GFS HAS ACTUALLY DONE A DECENT JOB THIS SUMMER WITH THESE NW FLOW
WEAK COLD FRONTS. WILL LEAN TOWARD GETTING THE SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY WOULD BE LESS HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 60SS
AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. MOST MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK WITH
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BIT
OF RELIEF IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT WITH THIS CHANGE IN AIRMASS
AND WILL COME BACK TO NORMAL.  RETURN FLOW WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS INCREASE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS OF 17Z. ISOLATED SHRA/TS
POSSIBLE EAST OF I-71 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AND
THEN THAT IS IT. BEST STORMS WOULD BE NEAR ERI. DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...BUT EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY HAVE A
LITTLE MVFR BR FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING. CU FIELD FOR THURSDAY
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND BRIEFLY WITH EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE LAKE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING AND UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN THIRD. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY OUT
OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.  GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LAKE AND THIS
WILL CAUSE WAVES TO REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

AFTER STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY GOOD BOATING
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY/CORRECTED

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