Gale Watch 3, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
152 AM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. IT WILL BE COLDER ON THURSDAY
BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP WHERE THE RAIN HAS ALREADY
ENDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE PROGGED WIND FIELD FOR WEDNESDAY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT. THERE IS
NO COLD ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF BUT THE COMBINATION OF A NEAR RECORD
DEEP LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND DEEP
MIXED LAYER SHOULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 KNOTS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NW OHIO AND 40 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO TO NEAR
CLEVELAND. WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ACROSS NW OHIO
TO THE I-71 CORRIDOR.

THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK OR THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE
SNOWBELT...AS THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW ZERO C BY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED JUST SLIGHTLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...BUT WITH
ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION SOME WET FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SNOWBELT. IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND
WILL KEEP THE MENTION.

THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT
WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA OUTSIDE
OF THE SNOWBELT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE
BY SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE AREA COULD WORK
TOGETHER TO TRIGGER A FEW SHRA NEAR THE LAKE ON SAT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND STALL NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER BY SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY THE FRONT IS LACKING MOISTURE SO ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE SEEMS NEEDED FOR SUN.

THE MODELS DIFFER A FAIR AMOUNT WITH THE MOISTURE FIELDS AND UPPER
IMPULSES MON AND TUE...SO NOT CONFIDENT IN EITHER SOLUTION. WILL
CARRY A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE EACH DAY.

TEMPS LOOK TO RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS THAT DEVELOPED SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
DAYBREAK. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WILL THE WINDS GET TODAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WITH GUSTS OF 40
TO 45 KNOTS AND LESS ELSEWHERE. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AT SUNSET
BUT COULD STILL BE GUSTY ALONG THE LAKESHORE. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TODAY.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE NE OH/NW PA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL TURN SOUTHWEST BEHIND IT. GUSTY WINDS AROUND GALE FORCE WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW DO NOT ANTICIPATE WINDS REACHING GALE
FORCE...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE WESTERN BASIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN MORE TO THE WEST. WITH THAT WINDS
WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT...AND THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE
FOR GALE FORCE WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE LAKE.

WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH WATER LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING. GIVEN CURRENT GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY WILL HOLD OFF ON GALE WATCH HEADLINES FOR
NOW AND WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY IN TEXT FORECAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ010-011-020-029-030-036-037.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ABE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
421 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

OHZ012>014-021>023-032-033-089-PAZ001>003-272030-
LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-STARK-MAHONING-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
421 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 726 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE WIND ADVISORY AND THE
TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ010-011-020-029-030-036-037-272030-
LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-MEDINA-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-MARION-MORROW-
421 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHEAST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE WIND ADVISORY THAT IS IN
EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ031-038-047-272030-
WAYNE-HOLMES-KNOX-
421 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHEAST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028-272030-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-
421 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE HIGH WIND WARNING THAT IS
IN EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ142>146-162>166-272030-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
421 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-147>149-167>169-272030-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-
ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
421 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...TORNADO WATCH 726 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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