Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
208 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

...PRELIMINARY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...THEN
BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA DURING
MID WEEK. EXPANDING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND SURFACE
TROUGH WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE ERUPTING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF MACON. THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM NEAR ALBANY GEORGIA NORTHEAST TO ORANGEBURG AT
12/18Z AND HAS MOVED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING WITH SBCAPES NEAR 4000
J/KG...LI NEAR -9C AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE APPROACHING 8C/KM. RUC
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVEN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AS TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. A NUMBER OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
ARE BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON RADAR IMAGERY WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGESTING THE SEA BREEZE HAS PASSED SAVANNAH-BEAUFORT AND
CHARLESTON. SATELLITE AS WELL AS OBSERVATIONS FROM PINOPOLIS ALSO
SUGGEST A ROBUST LAKE BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AROUND LAKES MARION
AND MOULTRIE. EXPECT MESOSCALE PROCESSES TO BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS OUTFLOW COLLISIONS OCCUR AND UVM
ENHANCES EVEN MORE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. PLAN TO INCREASE POPS TO 50-80 PERCENT FOR A MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS CLUSTERED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
FROM STATESBORO UP THROUGH MONCKS CORNER.

SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY
WITH MODEL AND OBSERVED SOUNDING DEPICTING DCAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG
AND...FAVORABLE DELTA EPT VALUES AND A WET-MICROBURST SEVERITY
INDEX IN EXCESS OF 100. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
SUNDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT 20-25 KT DEPICTED IN THE LATEST RUC...HOWEVER
THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH ALONG WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS...TO SUPPORT
A RISK FOR LOOSELY ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY INLAND. OF
COURSE WITH THE SEA BREEZE LURKING ABOUT...THE RISK MAY EXTEND TO
THE COAST THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON HOW TSTM CLUSTERS EVOLVE
FARTHER INLAND. FOR THIS REASON...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL
9 PM EDT.

IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S
EXCEPT AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TO BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO BE ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TSTMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT TIME PLACEMENT TOOLS SUGGEST TSTMS MAY REACH KSAV AS EARLY
AS 20Z AND KCHS AROUND 21Z. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR 3SM
TSRA ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT TO TREND.
ADDITIONAL AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS SHORTER TERM TRENDS BECOME
MORE APPARENT. ONCE CONVECTION DIES OFF THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WET
GROUNDS MAY SUPPORT PATCHY GROUND FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH
MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK EACH MORNING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
TO BE ISSUED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES AND EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDES
IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL PEAK NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW. WILL ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL ZONES
TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ101-116>119-
     137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ042>045-
     047>052.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
108 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW EULONIA           31.55N 81.44W
07/11/2010                   MCINTOSH           GA   PUBLIC

            1 LARGE OAK LIMB DOWN. 6 FEET IN LENGTH. 6 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER AT THE BASE. NUMEROUS SMALL LIMBS DOWN. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

VB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
206 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

GAZ087-099-100-121845-
BULLOCH-CANDLER-JENKINS-
206 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CANDLER...BULLOCH AND
JENKINS COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 204 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROGERS TO
OLIFFTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
BUTTS...EMMALANE...GEORGIA SOUTHERN...HERNDON...HOPEULIKIT...
METTER...MIDDLEGROUND...MILLEN...PERKINS...PORTAL...PULASKI...
SCARBORO...STATESBORO AND WESTSIDE...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT.
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES SUDDENLY...SOMETIMES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. BE ALERT
FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY
IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3251 8217 3256 8209 3254 8204 3260 8201
      3269 8211 3278 8214 3288 8213 3292 8208
      3292 8195 3294 8191 3293 8179 3290 8176
      3267 8187 3263 8184 3238 8176 3238 8221
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 270DEG 14KT 3285 8202 3247 8208