Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
550 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...WHILE NEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER/MOVE INTO
S/SW COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING.

DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUD COVER...DISCONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY
FOR MOST SC COUNTIES.

EXPECT A RATHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...UPPER LVL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW 90S AS H5 HEIGHTS LOWER TO 5880/5890 METERS AND 1000-850MB
HEIGHTS LOWER TO 1420/1430 METERS. SFC DEWPTS HOWEVER...WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S...THUS MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 100-105 F. SOME MIXING OUT OF DEWPTS SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS MAY STILL WARRANT
A HEAT ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN
SOUTH CAROLINA.

HAVE MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD 40 POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS STRONG
SFC HEATING/SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LEESIDE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
MIDLANDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. WEAK WIND FIELDS ALONG WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. MOST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF
THE NORTHEAST SHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG WITH A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFTING
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE THEREFORE
INCREASED POPS FROM 40/50 TUESDAY TO 50/60 BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE ALSO
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
AND ENHANCED UPLIFTING REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN H25 JET INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE
MIDLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE MID 70S DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT STRONG HEATING...THUS HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE DISAGREEMENT IN PATTERN DETAILS...MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL LEAN
TOWARD THE STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSING COMPLETELY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM PULLS DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. CONSIDERING
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPRESSED LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THEN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER...RAINFALL HAS
INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STRONG OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. EXPECT A FAIRLY DECENT NOCTURNAL SURGE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...BUT
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WE MAY SEE NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS AS LOW LVL WINDS INCREASE AROUND THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS BEYOND
20 NM. SOUTHEAST SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF 8 SECONDS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO SEAS BUILDING BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET OVER OUTER SC/GA
WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF SCA CRITERIA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KNOTS DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET FOR WATERS WITHIN 20 NM OF
THE COASTS.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON DETAILS REGARDING THE TIMING
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WINDS AND SEAS MID WEEK. USING A BLEND OF
HPC GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY. THUS WINDS COULD BECOME SOLID
ONSHORE BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST THURSDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...A SOUTHEAST 8-9 SECOND SWELL COUPLED WITH BREEZE
CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES AND INFLUENCES FROM THE RECENT FULL
MOON WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
555 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140-SCZ040-042-281000-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-
555 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXCESSIVE HEAT...HEAT INDICES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ117-119-139-141-281000-
COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL LIBERTY-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
555 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXCESSIVE HEAT...HEAT INDICES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ043>045-047-052-281000-
INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
555 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXCESSIVE HEAT...HEAT INDICES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ048>051-281000-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
555 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXCESSIVE HEAT...HEAT INDICES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-281000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
555 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
744 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GARDEN CITY             32.10N 81.18W
06/27/2010                   CHATHAM            GA   PUBLIC

            THE PUBLIC REPORTED 2 TREES DOWN AT RESIDENCE. TREES WERE
            40 FEET TALL.

&&

DPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
750 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAVANNAH                32.05N 81.08W
06/27/2010                   CHATHAM            GA   PUBLIC

            THE PUBLIC REPORTED SEVERAL 7 TO 8 FEET BRANCHES DOWN IN
            DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH. BRANCHES WERE 4 TO 6 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER. SEVERAL ROADS ALSO HAD WATER PONDING ON THEM
            BUT REMAINED PASSABLE.

&&

DPB

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