Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
106 PM EDT TUE MAR 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND
CROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE DECIDED TO PUT MEZ030 IN A HIGH WIND WARNING AND KEEP THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MEZ029. GUSTS HOLDING ALONG WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST
OF 55 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSING IN ON 40 MPH.

WINTER WX ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH AND WEST LOOK SUSPECT AS
LATEST RUC AND NAM12 SOUNDINGS SHOW COLD AIR HOLDING IN LONGER AND
PRECIP STAYING THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME REPORTS ACROSS THE N W/UP TO
AN INCH OF NEW SNOW. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT PRECIP CHANGING TO
SLEET COULD VERY LEAD TO SOME ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT CLOSE TO
WARNING CRITERIA(1 INCH). IMPACT IS MORE OF A CONCERN AS SLEET AND
SNOW COULD VERY LEAD TO SOME HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER AND WEST.

CURRENT FCST SEEMS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE ATTM... SFC LOW PRES OVR
W CENTRAL PA ATTM W/ STNRY FRONT XTNDG NEWRD FROM THIS LOW UP
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE... AREA OF
MAINLY LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP N OF THE STNRY BNDRY CONTS ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS W/ LITTLE OVERALL NWRD PROGRESS LAST FEW
HRS AS THE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE MVNG NWRD THEN SHUNTED ENEWRD AS
STRONG HGH PRES N OF THE AREA ACTS AS A BUFFER... MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP STREAMING NWRD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND WRN NEW ENGLAND AND
NYS ATTM.

LOW PRES OVR W CENTRAL PA PROGGED TO MOVE ENEWRD ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND...ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE AND INTO THE WRN CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVR THE NXT 36 HRS. PRECIP ASSOCIATED W/ THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONT TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NWRD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA
THIS AM AS LOWER LVLS CONT TO MOISTEN UP W/ PRECIP THEN XPCTD TO
CONT THRU THE DAY AND MUCH OF TNGT. BL TEMPS AND CRITICAL THCKNS
VALS SUGGEST MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF OUR FA THO COLD AIR
HANGING IN ACROSS THE FAR N AND W TDY INTO TNGT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WNTRY MIX THESE AREAS. USED A MDL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR CRITICAL
THCKNS AND BL TEMPS AND THIS YIELDED LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED PRECIP TYPES. WILL LEAVE CURRENT WNTR WX ADV IN
PLACE.

MDT NERLY WNDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH XPCTD DOWNEAST TDY INTO ERLY THIS
EVE BUT XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO WND ADV CRITERIA LVLS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS...
ON WEDNESDAY. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
WEAK RIDGING WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATELY COOLER
AIR. THE MOST POWERFUL COLD FRONT TO EFFECT THE AREA SINCE EARLY
FEBRUARY WILL THEN BEAR DOWN ON THE REGION THURSDAY. SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW
SQUALL...COULD EFFECT THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON GUSTY
BLUSTERS WILL BE USHERING IN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BITTER COLD AND
GUSTY DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR SURGES OVER THE AREA. THE
AIR MASS WILL MODIFY A BIT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOW EVENT MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TRACKS TOWARD THE GULF OF
MAINE.
&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MANLY IFR CONDS XPCTD TDY AND TNGT AS LARGE SCALE PRECIP EVENT
AFFECTS THE AREA...

IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS
MAY LOWER TO MFR IN SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A
GUSTY TURBULENT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
GLW IN PLACE INTO THIS EVE W/ RAPID DCRS IN WNDS XPCTD LATER TNGT
AS LOW PRES MOVES OVR THE WATERS...

GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001-
     003-004.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE/BLOOMER

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