High Wind Warning 10, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
309 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE STATE TODAY AND THEN
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON FRI.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE STATE BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY PRIMARY ISSUE IS DENSE FOG OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE LATER
THIS MORNING AS WIND INCREASE. SECOND ISSUE IS COLD TEMPERATURE
ACROSS THE NORTH. SKIES WERE CLEAR EARLIER ALLOWING FOR RADIATONAL
COOLING BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVED. WARM UP SHOULD OCCUR AS WINDS
INCREASE BUT WILL KEEP EYE ON TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST AS
PRECIPITATION REACHES THAT AREA. FOR POPS HAVE INITIALIZED GRIDS
WITH BLEND OF GFS...NAM AND SREF. HAVE MANUALLY INCREASED POPS
CLOSER TO 100 PERCENT. WIND ALSO ISSUE OVER THE COASTAL ZONES.
BUFKIT SUGGESTING AROUND 45 KNOTS WILL MIX DOWN OVER PARTS OF ZONE
30 SO WILL UPGRADE ADVISORY THERE TO WARNING. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINTS LOOK REASONABLE SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. FOR QPF HAVE
USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS...HOWEVER WILL KEEP MAXIMUM 6 HOUR
MODEL BLEND AMOUNTS UNDER 1 INCH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG GRADIENT TO SETUP OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
40S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER TROUGH TO CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS TROUGH.
WITH LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AT THIS TIME. CORE OF THE COLD AIR
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND THEN MOVES
EASTWARD AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF
THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH THIS VERY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH NEXT LOW PRESSURE
AFFECTING THE REGION LATER MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITION OVER DOWNEAST SITES THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN SITES THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR WINDS.
WILL INCREASE MODEL BLEND A FEW KNOTS. FOR WAVES: HAVE INITIALIZED
GRIDS WITH WNA/4. FORECAST WINDS SPEED ACROSS THE FETCH AREA A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN WAVE MODEL WIND FIELD SO WILL INCREASE WAVE
HEIGHTS 1 TO 2 FEET.

SHORT TERM: STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL CREATE SCA
CONDITIONS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...FOSTER
AVIATION...MIGNONE
MARINE...MIGNONE/FOSTER

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