Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1200 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION IS TRYING TO START FIRING ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE
AT AT TIME. GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT MOST CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK
COUNTY (SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF
MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES EAST
ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST MAINE LATE TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF BETTER
INSTABILITY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS SHOULD AGAIN HELP FOCUS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS FURTHER FROM THE BEST INSTABILITY...WITH
THE MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER NEAR THE COAST INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT
THERE. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS
ALOFT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD AGAIN MOVE SLOWLY AND TRAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE SAME AREAS WHILE PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...THOUGH COULD PERSIST LONGER NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...LEAVING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL INCREASINGLY
CONCENTRATE ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS COULD AGAIN PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BEGIN TO RE-DEVELOP
ACROSS DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WILL AGAIN EXPAND INLAND FROM THE COAST LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THOUGH COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST WITH MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
ONSHORE WINDS. HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM AROUND 90 TO THE MID 90S ARE
EXPECTED INLAND FROM THE COAST TODAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AROUND 60 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY RAISE
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. EXPECTING CONVECTION OCCURRING EARLY
SATURDAY IN THE NW PORTION OF THE STATE TO RE-IGNITE IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT IN THE MORNING AND PROVIDE AMPLE LOW
LVL MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HEATING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN
THE SOUTH WITH ANOTHER DAY IN THE LOW-MID 80S.  WITH POTENTIAL
STORM TOPS OF 35 TO 40K FT...PW OVER 2 INCHES...FRZ LVL NEAR 14KT
FT...CORFIDI VECTORS UNDER 10 KT...WARM CLOUD LAYER OVER 10K
FT...DEW POINTS NEAR 20C...A COLD FRONT PARALLEL TO THE UPR FLOW
AND VERY LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLASH
FLOODING EXISTS. THE FRONT IS FURTHER STALLED SATURDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE RIDES NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. THIS LOW...CURRENTLY
SPINNING NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SAT NGT. EXPECT HEAVIER PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA SAT NGT SUCH AS ZONES
10...31...AND 15. DURING SUNDAY...FAVORING THE GEMS SOLN WITH
HEAVY PRECIP ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHTER AMTS NORTH.
AGAIN...THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY AMTS OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EXITS SUN NGT WITH SHOWERS REMAINING DOWNEAST AND IN
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT AND ALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE LOW 80S. THE
BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES AGAIN TUES WITH A SOUTH WIND RETURNING AND
ADDING MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT ARRIVING WEDS. THIS
MEANS THE BREAK FROM COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
SOME CONVECTION MAY FIRE IN THE WESTERN MTS OF THE CWA LATE
TUES...BUT IS MORE LIKELY TUES NGT INTO WEDS. THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM FOR WEDS IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH NUMEROUS SCENARIOS
PRESENTED BY NWP.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL PRODUCE VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS RANGING
FROM VFR TO LIFR. THE MOST EXTENSIVE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH RANGING FROM VFR TO LIFR. CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD ALSO PERSIST
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
MOVE BACK INLAND TONIGHT WITH MORE EXTENSIVE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
AGAIN DEVELOPING PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN MORNING
FOG AND STRATUS SATURDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUD WILL LIFT BY
MIDDAY...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST...BUT GIVE WAY TO A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY TO THE NORTH OF BGR BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD BGR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY AND STEADY RAIN PROMISES IFR CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS STEADILY IMPROVE TOWARDS MVFR AND VFR
DURING SUNDAY ACROSS THE STATE. BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALL
AREAS SHOULD BE VFR. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE A THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AGAIN...ALL AREAS WILL BE VFR BY MID-MORNING
MONDAY. COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS FOR BHB AND BGR WILL RETURN MONDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUES MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED BELOW A
NAUTICAL MILE IN WIDESPREAD FOG TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST PROMISES TO
BRING A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WITH WAVES UP TO 10 FT BY LATER
SUNDAY. THESE WAVES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING MONDAY BACK
TOWARDS 5 FT. FOG RETURNS NO LATER THAN MONDAY NIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY.
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP NORTH OF CARIBOU. THIS
AREA RECEIVED OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY...AND ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL HERE COULD RESULT IN THE POSSIBILTY OF FLASH
FLOODING LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MEZ002.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MWALKER
LONG TERM...MWALKER
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MWALKER
HYDROLOGY...DUDA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1149 AM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

MEZ002-101600-
NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
1149 AM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MEZ001-003>006-010-011-015>017-031-032-101600-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-
NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-INTERIOR HANCOCK-
CENTRAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
1149 AM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MAINE...NORTH
CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE...SOUTHEAST MAINE AND WEST CENTRAL
MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MEZ029-030-101600-
COASTAL HANCOCK-COASTAL WASHINGTON-
1149 AM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ050>052-101600-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO SCHOODIC POINT ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
INTRACOASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME-
1149 AM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.