Tornado Warning 5, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
834 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST WILL
EXTEND ALONG THE COAST MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND BE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE DOMINATE AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND THIS HIGH WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE STRONGEST STORMS DURING THE EVENING HAVE BEEN IN THE UPSTATE
CLOSE TO THE LINGERING WARM/WEDGE FRONT. EXPECT THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
SHOW THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN GEORGIA THIS EVENING SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE 200 AM TO 800 AM TIME FRAME.
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST VAD CONTINUES
TO INDICATE STRONG SHEAR WITH 3000 FOOT WINDS NEAR 50 KNOTS.
EVENING LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS
IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE MAY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND BECAUSE OF DIURNAL COOLING. HAVE FORECASTED LOWER
POPS AFTER 200 AM.

USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF MIXING
AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTED A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND
FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW H5 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR -22 MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COOLING MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HAIL. THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARED BETTER FOR MONDAY
BECAUSE OF THE COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS. THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW THE LOW LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
DRYING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT DOMINATING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE 10Z AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
COVERAGE THROUGH 05Z AGS/DNL...07Z CAE/CUB AND 08Z OGB.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY 12Z WITH
CLOUD BASES REMAINING MVFR AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA.
WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED AROUND
11 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO
POSSIBLY EARLY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JL
NEAR TERM...JL
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...MP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
951 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>028-030-300200-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-AIKEN-
951 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...TORNADO WATCH 37 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR
TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARD.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SCZ029-031-035>038-041-300200-
LEE-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-BAMBERG-
951 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.