Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
240 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...NOW
CENTERED OFF SHORE GEORGIA/CAROLINA. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED INTO
MIDLANDS AND IS NOW BECOMING DIFFUSE AS FRONTALYSIS DEVELOPS. AIR
MASS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE AROUND 2000
J/KG. PRECIP WATER NEAR 2.00 INCHES. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
PEE DEE INTO THE MIDLANDS. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA IN AREA OF
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY. CONVECTION ALSO IN THE MOUNTAINS/UPSTATE. WEAK SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MAY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...MODELS SUGGEST
SOME LINGERING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH EXPECT A DIMINISHING
TREND BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE COOL BIAS NOTED WILL
FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND REMAINS MOIST. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH/SEA BREEZE FRONT INTERACTIONS WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE LONG TERM. UPPER RIDGE
STILL FORECAST TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AND WILL BE REPLACED BY EAST
COAST TROUGH PATTERN A FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE STALLED
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY BE FOUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE MONDAY/TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FRONT MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DRY THINGS OUT
THURSDAY. COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NOTICEABLE...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 90S/UPPER 80S FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION/TSRA.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT A COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WILL BE
THE GENERATING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY...WITH THE SEA
BREEZE ALSO GENERATING TSRA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D NETWORK
SHOW SHRA/TSRA RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH OGB
HAVING A COUPLE OF CELLS CURRENTLY HEADING TOWARD IT. MODELS ALSO
INDICATE CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A COUPLE
OF HOURS LONGER THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH
CB AT CAE/CUB AND ADDED VCTS TO OGB/AGS/DNL...WILL HANDLE TSRA
NEARING OGB WITH TEMPO THROUGH 25/22Z. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION ENDING
AROUND 26/06Z WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EARLY
MORNING FOG IS ALSO A CONCERN...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS
ATTM TO SEE WHERE FORTHCOMING RAIN CREATES OPTIMAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR WITHIN CONVECTION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-022-
     027>029-031-035>038-041.
GA...NONE.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
133 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

SCZ036-251830-
ORANGEBURG-
133 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING ORANGEBURG COUNTY...

AT 132 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN THE NEESES AREA OF WESTERN ORANGEBURG COUNTY.
MOVEMENT WAS EASTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL LIKELY CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS
NEAR 45 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY SHERIFF...OR CALL
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 877 6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
355 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

SCZ027-252100-
LEXINGTON-
355 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING LEXINGTON COUNTY...

AT 354 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN LEXINGTON COUNTY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 500 PM. SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS NEAR 45
MPH...AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PONDING OF WATER WILL OCCUR IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 877 6 3
3...6 7 7 2.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
429 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

SCZ036-038-252130-
CLARENDON-ORANGEBURG-
429 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING CLARENDON AND ORANGEBURG
COUNTIES...

AT 423 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VANCE OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOLLY
HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS TO BOATERS ON LAKE MARION.
YOUR BEST COURSE OF ACTION DURING A THUNDERSTORM IS TO SEEK SAFE
HARBOR. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE OPEN LAKE WATERS...STAY BELOW
DECK...AND IF POSSIBLE...AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS.

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 877 6 3
3...6 7 7 2.