Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH STATIONARY
FRONT JUST WEST OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE TN
VALLEY. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FA WITH A
LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DRAPED OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
MOVING SE. SPC RECENTLY ISSUED SVR TSTM WATCH FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF CWA EXCLUDING THE NORTHEAST PART. ALSO SPC NOTED THERE WAS
INCREASING SHEAR OVER THE AREA. THE WATCH RUNS THROUGH 10 PM THIS
EVENING. PWS AROUND 2 INCHES TODAY SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
8PM THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE
CSRA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING BUT
WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SOME CONTINUING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY...WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT OF THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE AREA
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S AND CLIMBING TOWARD THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ON MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES A BIT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK MID
LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME WEAKNESS IN THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE
INTO LATE WEEK. MAINLY LOW POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND CHANCE
POPS INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S
WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AIMRASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES INCREASED TO AROUND 90F WHICH IS THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE. ALSO SPC NOTED INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE
REGION AND A SVR TSTM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE CAE CWA
EXCLUDING THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE PEE DEE AREA. IN ADDITION
CAPES INCREASE TO 2000-3000 J/KG OVER WATCH AREA. OTHERWISE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH ABOUT 14Z SUNDAY
MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS LIKE AGS AND OGB MAY HAVE IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN BUT BRIEF IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030-035-041.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ065-077.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
419 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

GAZ040-063-064-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>029-031-036>038-010830-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-
FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-LEE-SUMTER-
ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
419 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD POSSIBLY CONTAIN
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ065-077-SCZ030-035-041-010830-
RICHMOND-BURKE-AIKEN-BARNWELL-BAMBERG-
419 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARD.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD POSSIBLY
CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED.