Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
331 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS SPARKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. SATELLITE AND WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOW NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN
ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH APPROXIMATES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
CURRENT LAPS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER WITH FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 17 KFT THE LIMITED
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EXPECT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE WESTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES INTO THE EASTERN US AND DEEPENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERE CONCERNS REMAIN LIMITED WITH MAIN
POTENTIAL BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE
HIGH PWAT VALUES...APPROACHING 2.3 INCHES. BELIEVE THESE VALUES ARE
SLIGHTLY EXAGGERATED BUT THIS COULD PROVIDE SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN WELL DEVELOPED CELLS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL A FEW
DEGREES AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND CLOUDS LIMIT SOME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG/JUST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION. MODELS AGREE A DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER
SOME MODELS TRY TO PUSH THIS FEATURE INTO FL WHICH IS LIKELY A BIT
AGGRESSIVE FOR THE SUMMER MONTHS. AS SUCH WILL REMAIN WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW AND TREND THE LONG TERM FORECAST TOWARD MODELS WHICH
KEEP THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG ITS BOUNDARY.  MOST CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 4.5 KFT...WITH MENTION OF CB THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING.  WILL AMEND TAFS AS STORMS APPROACH SITES.  BRIEF IFR-MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS.   VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. ALSO
ON TUESDAY...WITH THE RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
532 AM EDT MON JUL 26 2010

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-270945-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
532 AM EDT MON JUL 26 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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