Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
142 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY AND STALL
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLAND SHOULD STALL
OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT SOUTH
SOME...AND SOME INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...YIELDING HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 105.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SLOWLY BECOME
DIFFUSE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY SW. SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO ALLOW SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN.
GIVEN EXPECTATION OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...HEAT ADVISORY MAY NOT
BE REQUIRED TUESDAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ANOTHER SURFACE
BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT INTO OUR REGION. APPEARANCE OF ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION WILL LEAD TO CHANCE DIURNAL
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG ITS BOUNDARY.  MOST CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 4.5 KFT...WITH MENTION OF CB THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING.  WILL AMEND TAFS AS STORMS APPROACH SITES.  BRIEF IFR-MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS.   VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. ALSO
ON TUESDAY...WITH THE RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
532 AM EDT MON JUL 26 2010

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-270945-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
532 AM EDT MON JUL 26 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.