Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

365 
WWUS41 KBUF 241452
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
952 AM EST WED FEB 24 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT WESTERN NEW YORK...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY NEAR LONG ISLAND ON THURSDAY...
REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AS
IT SLOWLY SPINS ITSELF OUT. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT STORM...
WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. WHILE IT IS A
BIT TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...STORM TOTALS
IN EXCESS OF A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. SNOW WILL
PICK UP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THE STORM LIKELY OCCURRING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A
FACTOR DURING THIS TIME...WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 25 MPH PRODUCING
AREA OF BLOWING SNOW.

THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE...ROUGHLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR
FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER...AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AS WELL. SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THOUGH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED 6 INCHES IN THESE LOCATIONS AS WELL.

WHILE SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PERIODIC BANDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION...THOUGH IT WILL BE MORE PATCHY IN
NATURE.

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-242300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0002.100225T0900Z-100226T2200Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
952 AM EST WED FEB 24 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE...WITH SNOWFALL
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING AND LASTING WELL
INTO FRIDAY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN EXACT SNOW 
TOTALS...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED IN ALL LOCATIONS WITH
STORM TOTALS OF AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. THOSE PLANNING TO
TRAVEL DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
FORECASTS...FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-242300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0002.100225T0900Z-100226T0600Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
952 AM EST WED FEB 24 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. 

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL PICK UP THURSDAY MORNING...LASTING WELL
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET OR RAIN AT TIMES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN
EXACT SNOW TOTALS...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED IN ALL
LOCATIONS WITH STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER
INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO
BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK/APFFEL

685 
WWUS41 KBUF 241942
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
242 PM EST WED FEB 24 2010

...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ON THE WAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND REACH 
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN BY THURSDAY EVENING. 
THIS LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER 
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK OR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY. 

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF UPSTATE NEW YORK 
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER THROUGH THE 
COURSE OF THE DAY. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SOME RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER 
ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN SNOWFALL 
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST AREAS 
OF SNOW. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS 
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH SNOW DIMINISHING FROM EAST TO 
WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. 

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH 
THIS SNOW EVENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO 
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE WATER LADEN SNOW 
WILL STICK TO TREES AND POWERLINES...AND MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED 
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE. 

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY INTO THE 20 TO 30 
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIMITED 
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE WET NATURE OF 
THE SNOW SHOULD LIMIT DRIFTING SOMEWHAT.

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-250345-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0002.100225T0900Z-100226T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0002.100225T1200Z-100226T1800Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
242 PM EST WED FEB 24 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO
1 PM EST FRIDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE WINTER STORM WATCH WHICH WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

WIDESPREAD WET SNOW WILL BRING DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS THURSDAY 
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS 
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE 
SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY... 
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN SNOWFALL RATES 
MAY REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF 
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE LIKELY BY FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY. 

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING THROUGH THIS 
SNOW EVENT...PRODUCING VERY WET WATER LADEN SNOW. THE SNOW WILL 
STICK TO TREES AND POWERLINES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SCATTERED 
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL 
INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LATE 
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING 
SNOW IN OPEN AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOULD 
LIMIT DRIFTING SOMEWHAT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IF
YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU SHOULD CHOOSE AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE...OR YOU SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-250345-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0002.100225T0900Z-100226T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0002.100225T1200Z-100226T1200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
242 PM EST WED FEB 24 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE WINTER STORM WATCH WHICH WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

WIDESPREAD WET SNOW WILL BRING DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS THURSDAY 
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. 
THE SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY... 
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1 TO 
2 INCHES PER HOUR. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES 
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS 
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING.

STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE LIKELY BY FRIDAY 
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. ACROSS 
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES. 

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING THROUGH THIS 
SNOW EVENT...PRODUCING VERY WET WATER LADEN SNOW. THE SNOW WILL 
STICK TO TREES AND POWERLINES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SCATTERED 
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE 
INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LATE THURSDAY 
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING 
SNOW IN OPEN AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOULD 
LIMIT DRIFTING SOMEWHAT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IF
YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU SHOULD CHOOSE AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF
TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 AM EST WED FEB 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...GENERALLY EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL INTENSIFY NEAR LONG ISLAND ON
THURSDAY...REMAINING IN THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT SLOWLY
SPINS ITSELF OUT. THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MOST OF
WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH THE STEADIEST SNOW FALLING THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL LOW IS
GENERATING STEADY...BUT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A PLUME OF
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS
WILL KEEP THE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING WHERE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE STILL DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN
NEW YORK. IN THE WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
VERY LITTLE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH WITHIN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYERS.
BASED ON THIS TREND...EXPECT MAINLY FLURRIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE GENESEE
VALLEY.

AFTER THE SHORT WAVE CLEARS OUR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE SNOW TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE
THE CONVERGENT FLOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN AS IT CLOSES OFF OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COASTAL LOW WILL CAUSE LIGHT SNOW TO PICK UP ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...MOVING VERY LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY
WEAKENS. THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MOST OF WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT POSSIBLE IN
SPOTS...WITH THE WORST OF THE STORM EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER. EXPECT MOST
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WILL EVENTUALLY BE UPGRADED TO THE
WARNING...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
IMPACTS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A WARNING AT THIS
TIME.

FOR THE DETAILS...A RATHER CLASSIC DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST...WITH A DEFINITE SPRING-LIKE
EVOLUTION IN HOW THE LOW STALLS...AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER
LOW. IT STARTS AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TODAY...SPURRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
THIS LOW QUICKLY TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES EAST OF NEW JERSEY ON THURSDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS INTENSE LOW IS EXCELLENT...WITH THE 00Z
NAM/UKMET/GFS/EUROPEAN/GEM AS WELL AS MOST PREVIOUS RUNS ALL
ESSENTIALLY AGREEING ON THE ABOVE BASICS. FOR OUR REGION...THE
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM WHERE THE LOW WILL DEVELOP...NOT
IF.

THURSDAY...WILL START OFF WITH AN INVERTED TROF AXIS EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW.
AS THE COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP...EVENTUALLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT SNOW TO COVER THE
ENTIRE REGION...INCREASING IN INTENSITY IN SPOTS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AN INTENSE LOW OF AROUND 980 MB WILL BE SOMEWHERE
NEAR LONG ISLAND...WITH SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF
THE LOW. THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES MATTER FOR OUR REGION...FOR A
COUPLE REASONS. AS LOW-MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW...A GENERALLY N-NW FLOW SETS UP AT 925 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPSLOPING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AS TERRAIN GROWS GRADUALLY (OR
SOMETIMES NOT SO) HIGHER SOUTH OF THE LAKE. WIND DIRECTION WILL HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THIS...WITH THE NAM SOLUTION BOTH WEAKER AND MORE NW
THAN THE GFS...THUS IMPLYING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT UPSLOPING. A
SECOND...AND PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WHICH WILL BE HARD TO
PIN DOWN FOR SOME TIME IS THE INTERACTION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AS OF THIS MORNING...A FRONT SITS ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE INTENSIFYING LOW...RESULTING IN A
MESO-SCALE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL. THE POSITION OF THIS WILL IMPACT
WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS...AND SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LOW IMPACT THIS...THUS THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
ASPECT THAN THE UPSLOPING. THIS SAID...ABSENT OF THESE TWO
ENHANCEMENTS...A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED. AREAS VOID
OF ENHANCEMENT WILL STILL BE MARGINAL TO WARNING CRITERIA.

ON FRIDAY...A GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE LOW WILL BOTH WEAKEN
AND DRIFT EAST. IN EASTERN PORTIONS...EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL JET TO
WEAKEN...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF. IN WESTERN
PORTIONS...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAY...THOUGH
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD START TO DROP OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

OTHER ASPECTS...WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM...WITH THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG WINDS WILL
BE...WITH THE GFS RUNNING STRONGER THAN THE NAM. USE BLEND HEDGED
TOWARDS STRONGER GFS...WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS EXPECTED IN MOST
SPOTS DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
ALSO...MAY MIX WITH RAIN OR SLEET AT TIMES EAST OF ROCHESTER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WARM AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE AN ISSUE IN WESTERN PORTIONS.

SUMMARY BY REGION...

NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING BUFFALO-ROCHESTER...THIS REGION IS
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...AS UPSLOPING
ENHANCES LIFT IN SPOTS...WITH MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENTS POSSIBLE.
WHILE THE BUFFALO/ROCHESTER AREAS ARE NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS...THIS WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT FOR
BOTH METRO AREAS. EXPECT TRAVEL TO BECOME DIFFICULT IN SPOTS
THURSDAY...LASTING WELL INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST SNOW
FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERN TIER...EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESSER SNOWFALL TOTALS THEN TO THE
NORTH AS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE SHADOWED SOMEWHAT.
EVEN WITH DOWNSLOPING...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WARNING SNOWFALL
IN ALL LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS LOCATIONS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE...WHERE UPSLOPING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
SNOWFALL TOTALS. EXPECT TRAVEL TO BECOME DIFFICULT IN SPOTS
THURSDAY...LASTING WELL INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST SNOW
FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT.

FINGER LAKES REGION...PERHAPS THE MOST UNCERTAINTY HERE...AS IT IS
UNCERTAIN IF THIS REGION WILL REMAIN IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ARE STILL LIKELY...WITH LOCATIONS THAT
UPSLOPE ON A NORTHERLY FLOW ALSO SEEING SOME ENHANCEMENT. MAY
SNEAK INTO THE HIGHER END STORM TOTALS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO FALL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT THE EVENT TO END EARLIER HERE...WITH
POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION HOLDING STORM TOTALS
DOWN IN SPOTS. EXPECT MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO FALL THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN TAPERING OFF AS DYNAMICS SHIFT WEST. THIS
SAID...STILL EXPECT SOLID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY MEETING
WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE ROTATION OF DISTURBANCES AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO SPUR
FURTHER PERIODS OF SNOW. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THESE PERIODS OF SNOW
TO BE LESS SIGNIFICANT...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW INCHES
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AT THIS FAR OUT...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MODEL ABILITY TO TIME THESE WAVES...SO OPT FOR A BIT MORE GENERIC
WORDING THIS FAR OUT...THOUGH ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL LIKELY AT
TIMES.

A SIMILAR SITUATION FOR SATURDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT EXPECTED IN ALL LOCATIONS...AS DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE LOW. BEYOND THIS...THE REGION REMAINS
IN A CYCLONIC FLOW...THOUGH THE LOW WILL BE WEAKER...THUS EVOLVING
INTO A MORE SNOW SHOWERY REGIME...THOUGH COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DECENT. STILL...A MOIST AND COOL PATTERN...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE.

LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK...NO CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. UPPER
LOW GRADUALLY EXITS TO THE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE NO
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS ARE FORESEEN DURING THIS TIME...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
MOST AIRFIELDS. STEADIER SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
STATE...IMPACTING THE KART TERMINAL WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE TO THE SNOW WEDNESDAY...BUT CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE TO NO BETTER THAN LOW MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SNOW RETURNS TO THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALL IS QUIET ON THE WATERS. AFTER THIS...EXPECT AT
LEAST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OR PERHAPS A GALE WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE BACKS TOWARDS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE...AS MODELS
DIFFER ON WINDS ACROSS THE LAKES...HOWEVER DID NOTE 00Z RUN OF THE
GFS DOES PUT EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO VERY CLOSE TO GALE IF THAT WERE TO
VERIFY. WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT GALES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THOUGH A DECENT GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN
ONTARIO WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
339 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2010

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-242045-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
339 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY...REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS BY THE END OF THIS EVENT WHICH MAY
LINGER INTO SATURDAY.

THE TWO MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL LIKELY BE THE
WIDESPREAD AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOWFALL AND THE HEAVY...WET
NATURE OF THE SNOW ITSELF WHICH COULD MAKE SNOW CLEARING OPERATIONS
DIFFICULT. TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM MAY BE SIGNIFICANT. WIND MAY
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT A STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS
EVENT...WHICH WILL LAST SEVERAL DAYS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
OF THIS EVENT...SNOW AMOUNTS...LOCATION...AND TIMING ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH YET DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF HOW THIS STORM WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...A SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-242045-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
339 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER LEWIS COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY...REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS BY THE END OF
THIS EVENT.

THE TWO MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL LIKELY BE THE
WIDESPREAD AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOWFALL AND THE HEAVY...WET
NATURE OF THE SNOW ITSELF WHICH COULD MAKE SNOW CLEARING OPERATIONS
DIFFICULT. TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM MAY BE SIGNIFICANT. WIND MAY
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL...PARTICULARLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT A STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS
EVENT...WHICH WILL LAST SEVERAL DAYS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
OF THIS EVENT...SNOW AMOUNTS...LOCATION...AND TIMING ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH YET DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF HOW THIS STORM WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...A SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-242045-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
339 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY...APPROACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003>005-013-014-242045-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
339 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY...REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND
GENESEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS BY THE END
OF THIS EVENT.

THE TWO MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL LIKELY BE THE
WIDESPREAD AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOWFALL AND THE HEAVY...WET
NATURE OF THE SNOW ITSELF WHICH COULD MAKE SNOW CLEARING OPERATIONS
DIFFICULT. TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM MAY BE SIGNIFICANT. WIND MAY
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT A STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS
EVENT...WHICH WILL LAST SEVERAL DAYS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
OF THIS EVENT...SNOW AMOUNTS...LOCATION...AND TIMING ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH YET DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF HOW THIS STORM WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...A SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

ZAFF