Wind Advisory 7, NWS Buffalo, NY

051 
WWUS71 KBUF 301529
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

NYZ019-085-302000-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-101130T2000Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1029 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* LOCATIONS: HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
  CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS 
  ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE. 

* TIMING: STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
  AFTERNOON.

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60
  MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. FARTHER INLAND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
  ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

* IMPACTS: HIGH WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES 
  RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND SOME PROPERTY DAMAGE. 
  THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BLOWING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE 
  NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY...CREATING VERY DIFFICULT DRIVING 
  CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ012-020-302000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-101130T2000Z/
WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...OLEAN
1029 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* LOCATIONS: STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
  CATTARAUGUS AND WYOMING COUNTIES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON 
  THE RIDGE TOPS. 

* TIMING: STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
  AFTERNOON.

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50
  MPH MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

* IMPACTS: STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN A FEW TREE LIMBS AND 
  RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ008-302330-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0007.101130T2100Z-101201T1000Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
1029 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 AM EST WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATIONS: THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY.

* TIMING: LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

* WINDS: SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH AND 
  OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 50 MPH. 

* IMPACTS: HIGH WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES 
  RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND SOME PROPERTY DAMAGE. 
  HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THE STRONG 
  WINDS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

438 
WWUS71 KBUF 301919
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
219 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

NYZ019-085-302030-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-101130T2000Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
219 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE
COUNTIES...THEREFORE THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

NYZ012-020-302030-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-101130T2000Z/
WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...OLEAN
219 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS CATTARAUGUS AND WYOMING
COUNTIES...THEREFORE THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

NYZ007-010330-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WI.Y.0007.101130T2100Z-101201T1200Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
219 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATIONS: JEFFERSON COUNTY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
  BLACK RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR FORT DRUM.

* TIMING: LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

* WINDS: SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
  UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS: STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND
  BRING DOWN A FEW TREE LIMBS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ008-010330-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WI.Y.0007.101130T2100Z-101201T1200Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
219 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATIONS: LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE BLACK
  RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR FORT DRUM.

* TIMING: LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

* WINDS: SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
  UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS: STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND
  BRING DOWN A FEW TREE LIMBS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

853 
WWUS71 KBUF 010302
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1002 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

NYZ007-008-011115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-101201T1200Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1002 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATIONS: JEFFERSON COUNTY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE 
  BLACK RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR FORT DRUM. 

* TIMING: THE REST OF TONIGHT.

* WINDS: SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH 
  GUSTS OVER 45 MPH. 

* IMPACTS: STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND 
  BRING DOWN A FEW TREE LIMBS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

SAGE

926 
WWUS71 KBUF 010905
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
405 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

NYZ007-008-011500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-101201T1500Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
405 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS: MAINLY IN THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY.

* TIMING: THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING.

* WINDS: SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS: STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND 
  BRING DOWN A FEW TREE LIMBS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

JJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND REACH JAMES BAY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY MOIST AIR
SURGING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN MAY BE EXCESSIVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK WHERE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL END AS A
PERIOD OF WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE CWA LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STEADY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PART OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...AND ACROSS THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH TOWARD JAMES BAY WILL TRANSPORT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH OF THIS LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL INTERACT WITH
THIS MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT.

THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD IS ADVANCING INTO NORTHWEST PA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST AS
A 70-80 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET SURGES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE AVERAGE OF MODEL GUIDANCE QPF INDICATES A LITTLE OVER
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SLOW UP A BIT AS A WEAK LOW MOVES NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALLOW STEADY RAIN TO
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE A LITTLE OVER ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
ABOUT 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TO AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. 850MB WINDS PEAK NEAR 80 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF NEW YORK FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. THE LATEST NAM
POINT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A STEEP INVERSION NEAR THE TOP OF THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH THE
FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE INVERSION WILL PRODUCE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR
A DOWNSLOPE WIND STORM ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE TO THE LEE OF THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THIS SETUP APPEARS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE
DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT OF DEC 9TH 2009 WHICH PRODUCED A 67 MPH GUST AT
DUNKIRK. SIMILAR TO THIS PAST EVENT...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE DOWNSLOPE ZONE ALONG LAKE
ERIE...AND NOT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS THE HILL TOPS...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE ON THE HIGHEST
RIDGES AND ALSO TO THE LEE OF THOSE RIDGES. GIVEN THE SETUP...A HIGH
WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE
COUNTIES MAINLY FOR THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
AFFECT FOR CATTARAUGUS AND WYOMING COUNTIES. LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL SHIFT TO
THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CHANNEL UP THE VALLEY.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE LARGE SCALE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S TODAY.
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EASILY EXCEED AN INCH BASED
ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...STRONG THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND FORCING. RAINS WILL
HOLD ON FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK BY MORNING WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND LIKELY TO BE IN PROGRESS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL BECOME LAKE ENHANCED DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST FOCUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO NEAR -10C BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COMBINED WITH DECENT MOISTURE THROUGH 700 MB WHICH WILL
SATURATE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND A WELL ALIGNED WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOCUS SIGNIFICANT LAKE PLUMES JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS. SOME FLUCTUATION IN THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW COULD BRIEFLY BRING THE PLUMES NORTHWARD...BUT IN A
PRIMARILY 250 TO 260 FLOW REGIME THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS DOWN INTO
SKI COUNTY AND THE TUG HILL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCAL POINTS FOR
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS.

LAKE SNOWS SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THURSDAY...BUT WE MAY LIKELY SEE A
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE DEVELOPING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -9C SHOULD
STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO
DECREASE SOMEWHAT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE TO BECOME UNSATURATED.

TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR AND MOISTURE AND WE SHOULD
SEE AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE LAKE SNOWS ON A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW.

WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY HOIST LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT WITH CURRENT MULTIPLE HEADLINES IN PLACE AND PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN AT THIS POINT BEING HEAVY RAINS/FLOODING WE WILL
HOLD OFF WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND MENTION POTENTIAL IN
THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NW FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS LONG WAVE TROUGH PULLS EAST
ACROSS QUEBEC AND SOME RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL
STILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS SE OF THE LAKES BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMS. 850 MB TEMPS AGAIN REMAIN MARGINAL...IN -8 TO -10C
RANGE...SO NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...PROB MID 30S OR SO FOR MAXES.

WEEKEND THEN APPEARS RATHER TRANQUIL AND COLD...BUT WE HAVE A
PATTERN CHANGE AS THE STRONGLY NEGATIVE NAO WILL FORCE THE NEXT LOW
SOUTH...TAKING IT ON A TRACK FROM MINN TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WOULD KEEP THE SNOW TO
OUR SOUTH...MOSTLY...AT LEAST PER 12Z ECMWF...BUT GFS TAKES IT
CLOSER. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SRN TIER SAT NT
AND SUN AS THEY MAY GET BRUSHED. ELSEWHERE...WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW NOT CONDUCIVE TO LK EFFECT SO MINIMAL POPS BOTH DAYS. FLOW
TURNS NW AGAIN MONDAY SO WILL RE-INSERT CHC POPS SE OF THE LAKES.
CONFIDENCE IN WEEKEND FORECAST IS LOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES WILL SPREAD INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS INTO WESTERN NY
IN THE RPEDAWN HRS WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE THREE
WESTERN TAF SITES BY AROUND 09Z-10Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WILL GRADUALLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR TO IFR DURING THE MORNING
ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG REGION AND IFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. LIFR CONDITIONS SHLD PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. ACROSS THE KBUF-KIAG REGION EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AT KROC
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR BY 15Z AND TO IFR BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EAST OF LK ONTARIO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO IFR BY
AROUND 18Z AND TO LIFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THE FIRST HALF
OF TUESDAY AS AN INTENSE 70-80 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PROPAGATES INTO
WESTERN NY. BEFORE THAT...SOME MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
BEGIN TONIGHT WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF WIND JUST OFF THE DECK. TUESDAY
MORNING THE WINDS WILL START TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20-35 KNOT RANGE...EVEN HIGHER ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE
WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY BRING LOCAL GUSTS OF 40-50 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH RAIN ENDING AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOCAL LIFR EAST
OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THURSDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL LIFR
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR IN LOCAL LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL GENERATE INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. THE
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE WHERE LOCAL
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH IS NOT FAVORED FOR
STRONGER WINDS IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     NYZ003>008-013-014-020-021.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NYZ008.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ012-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
         EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TJP
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SFM
AVIATION...JJP/SFM
MARINE...TMA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
311 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010

NYZ019-085-302015-
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
311 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND BECOME MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES WHILE CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS...WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING BANKFULL
STAGE IN SOME CASES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-302015-
WYOMING-
311 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND BECOME MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES WHILE CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR 1.5 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS...WITH WATER
LEVELS APPROACHING BANKFULL STAGE IN SOME CASES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ020-302015-
CATTARAUGUS-
311 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   FLOOD WATCH.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND BECOME MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES WHILE CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR 2.0 TO 2.5
INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS...WITH WATER
LEVELS APPROACHING BANKFULL STAGE IN SOME CASES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003>008-013-014-021-302015-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
311 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND BECOME MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES WHILE CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS...WITH WATER LEVELS
RISING TO NEAR OR EVEN OVER FLOOD STAGE IN SOME CASES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-002-010-011-302015-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
311 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND BECOME MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES WHILE CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS...WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING BANKFULL
STAGE IN SOME CASES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-302015-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
311 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-302015-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
311 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF