Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
339 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COMING TO AN END FROM
WEST TO EAST. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. A WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO BE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE FROM NIAGARA
COUNTY EAST TO ROCHESTER AND THE NORTHERN END OF THE FINGER LAKES.
ANOTHER VERY ORGANIZED STORM JUST WEST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THIS APPEARS TO CONTAIN THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO GIVEN ITS UPSCALE GROWTH TREND INTO A BOWING LINE
SEGMENT.

THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WE MAY SEE COVERAGE EXPAND
ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS ENTERING
SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AT 19Z. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY
STRONG 70+ KNOT 500MB SPEED MAX WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TODAY AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
QUALITY OF STORM ORGANIZATION. THE IMMEDIATE BUF AREA IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN SHADOWED BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS IN PLACE...EXPECT
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE
PRIMARY RISK BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...AND POSSIBLY A FEW CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY
LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM THROUGH COLD POOL SHARING
PROCESSES. EVEN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR DOES NOT FAVOR A TORNADO
RISK.

THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND ELIMINATE INSTABILITY. WILL END POPS BY MID
EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND BY AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE EASTERN ZONES.
SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP BACK INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SOME
UPPER 50S EVEN IN THE COOLER SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

ON THURSDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW OF SOMEWHAT DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE LOW
CLOUD DURING THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
TUG HILL REGION...OTHERWISE EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS POPPING BY AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKE SHADOWS.
850MB TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WILL STILL SUPPORT LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN WITH UPPER 70S ON THE HILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE GENERAL PATTERN
FORECAST...THOUGH OUR REGION WILL SIT NEAR A BOUNDARY MAKING THE
SPECIFICS A BIT HARDER TO PIN DOWN. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN NEW YORK BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ASSUMING THE BOUNDARY PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THERE IS SOME LARGE
SCALE LIFT FORECAST IN THE MID LEVELS...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN AREA
OF STEADIER RAINFALL...MORE IN A SOLID LINE THAN THE SHOWERY STUFF
WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. LIFT INITIALLY STARTS OFF TO THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...BLOSSOMING NORTH OF I-90 DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FOR
NOW...HANG ON TO LIKELY POPS...WITH SOME QUESTIONS ON THE POSITION
AND TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINING...AND WEAKER LIFT FURTHER EAST.
WHILE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS CENTERS ON THE FRONT...MAY ALSO SEE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE WARM AIR MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME DESCENT WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
GUSTS OF 30 MPH OR SO LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY NEAR
THE BOUNDARY...THOUGH EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE FAIRLY WARM ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SOME EVENING
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE WIDELY FROM SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WHICH SHOULD BREAK WELL INTO
THE 80S...AND NORTH WHERE CLOUDS MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S...THOUGH THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. CAN SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND CARRY CHANCE
POPS. WITH THE FRONT STRADDLING THE CWA...TOO MUCH SPREAD TO PIN
DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION...MAINTAIN A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRETTY MUCH WHEREVER THERE/S A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING A BIT MORE AT THIS POINT. GENERALLY FEEL BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT A NORTHERN OR
SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS BOUNDARY. ACTUALLY COULD BE AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY...BUT
THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WHICH STILL IS
UNCERTAIN. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S IF
THE BOUNDARY WERE TO SLIDE FAR ENOUGH NORTH ALLOW FOR DECENT SUN.

WHEREVER THE BOUNDARY STARTS OFF ON SATURDAY NIGHT...
GFS/GGEM/EUROPEAN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SWEEPING IT ALL OUT WITH A
SHORTWAVE SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS...GGEM AND 00Z ECMWF ALL AGREE
ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST TO START THIS TIME PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COMBINED WITH
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SUNDAY. WITH MOISTURE DWINDLING THROUGH THE DAY EXPECT ANY
SHOWERS TO BE EARLIER IN THE DAY OPPOSED TO LATER.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON
READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE BIGGER DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
DECREASING DEW POINT WHICH WILL MAKE SUNDAY FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE.

MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE SUNNIER THAN MONDAY
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CLOSER TO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH BOTH DAYS SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL HOLD CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH TUESDAY
SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT.

THOUGH 7 DAYS OUT BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY AGREE
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DIVING OVER THIS RIDGE AND ACROSS JAMES BAY. FOR NOW WILL COVER
WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY
EXTREME TURBULENCE. VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6-10
HOURS. EXPECT ONE ROUND TO MOVE THROUGH THE KROC AREA THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN ALL SITES HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACH AND POTENTIALLY PROVIDES SOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZATION TO STORMS.

BY MID EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING AN
END TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ARRIVES.
AFTER THAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A LITTLE VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CHANNELING UP LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. BY MID EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE
AND ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT MORE WEST OR NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH.
OVERNIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AT 2-4 FEET BUT CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
BRING WINDS BACK UP CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1227 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-221630-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1227 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINES WITH A FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OR OTHER SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR FURTHER DETAILS
IN THE COMING DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-221630-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1227 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINES WITH A FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OR OTHER SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR FURTHER DETAILS
IN THE COMING DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
203 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             NEWARK                  43.04N 77.09W
07/21/2010  E0.75 INCH       WAYNE              NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL LASTED FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES.

&&

HITCHCOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
208 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-212015-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
208 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOME OF WESTERN NEW YORK...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF LOCKPORT
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF RAPIDS, ALABAMA, AND ELBA AND OVER THE BYRON
AREA. WELL TO THE SOUTH OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE OVER THE PORTVILLE, BOLIVAR, AND WHITESVILLE AREAS OF
CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES. MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS. YOU CAN EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE GREATLY REDUCED, AND
WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF PER HOUR PONDING ON
ROADS IS LIKELY. BE ON THE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
222 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

NYZ006>008-212000-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
222 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 215 PM SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE PASSING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THEIR STRENGTH AND CROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
INCLUDING THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE NEAR 315 PM NEAR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN JEFFERSON AND CLOSER TOWARDS 4 PM TO 5 PM FOR
SOUTHERN LEWIS AND EASTERN OSWEGO COUNTY.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. ANY THUNDERSTORM ALSO HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROAD WAYS...REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END MID EVENING.

PERSONS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SHOULD PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF
THREATENING WEATHER. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER, YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

THOMAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
308 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

NYZ001-002-011-212115-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BATAVIA
308 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

            ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 10 MILES WIDE WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN LOCKPORT AND BYRON. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN CONTINUALLY
REGENERATING AND ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE 2 OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN PER
HOUR AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ORLEANS COUNTY AND GENESEE COUNTY NORTH
OF ALABAMA AND ELBA. YOU CAN EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE GREATLY REDUCED
AND PONDING ON ROADS IS LIKELY. BE ON THE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
420 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             1 SW CLAYTON            44.23N 76.10W
07/21/2010  E1.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN AS WELL

0405 PM     HAIL             CLAYTON                 44.24N 76.09W
07/21/2010  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          NY   PUBLIC

            50 TO 60 MPH WINDS AS WELL

&&

JPACE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
448 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

NYZ002-003-011-013-212145-
GENESEE NY-LIVINGSTON NY-MONROE NY-ORLEANS NY-
448 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING ACROSS THE AREA...

* AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND
  STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM OAKFIELD TO SCOTTSVILLE...AND WERE TRAINING SLOWLY
  TO THE EAST.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCLUDE...
  CHURCHVILLE
  HENRIETTA
  PITTSFORD

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...CAUSING FLOODING OF
ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 4315 7829 4310 7745 4297 7753 4301 7844

TJP