Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
556 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE STRONG. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL
WORK IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE GENERALLY PLEASANT WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH A WEAKENING FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND UPON ITS RETURN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 545 PM...THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS WERE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH
BUT ENOUGH LIFT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE HAVE BEEN ABLE
TOP GENERATE SOME WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MESO ANALYSES
SUGGESTS SBCAPES OF >1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER AS OF
21Z WITH SBCAPES <500 J/KG ELSEWHERE. VIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS PLENTY
OF TEXTURE IN THE CLOUD COVER CROSSING WRNMOST NY AND THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA. THE ASOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUDNERSTORMS WILL IMPCT WRN NY
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...THEN SEVERAL HOURS OF UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE MAIN BATCH OF CONVECTION MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT.

WE STILL ARE CONCERNED FOR POSSIBLE SVR WX AND EXCESSIVE RAINS LATER
TONIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AND A NEW SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH. THIS WOULD ADVECT ENE RIGHT UP ACROSS OUR AREA SO TRAINING
CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXACT LOCATION IN DOUBT THOUGH...BUT TIMING
FOR GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE IN 04Z-09Z TIME FRAME...WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY AND INCLUDE IN HWO.

THURSDAY WILL START WITH SHOWERS AND LINGERING STORMS...PERHAPS AN
EXITING MCS...ACTUALLY COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS UNTIL MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON SO STILL THE THREAT FOR SOME LIMITED REDEVELOPMENT INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL...TAPERED POPS BACK FROM NORTHWEST
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SOMEWHAT LATER IN
DAY...ESP WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NICE BREAK DURING THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER
THE REGION. FAIR WX AND SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF 10-12C
SUPPORTING U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS ON SATURDAY IS TO DIVE A WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
AT THE SURFACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH MOISTURE STILL SOMEWHAT
LIMITED WILL NOT GO ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH EXPECT A SHORT LIVE CLEARING FOR SATURDAY
EVENING.

MODELS DROP THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
DRY...EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK STATE WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WILL PERSIST.

A MUCH STRONGER STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WARM FRONT BACK ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS THE MEAN LONG WAVE PATTERN
PRODUCES A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS...AND A TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE. THE BEST PLACE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHERE A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING WITH WEAK RIDGING
IN PLACE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING UPSTREAM OVER NRN INDIANA/NW OHIO AND ROLL
NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INCLUDED
A VCTS DESIGNATOR FROM ABOUT 03Z-08Z AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS AND A
BIT LATER AT KART. SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED. COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE...IN 13Z TO 17Z TIME
FRAME WITH A WIND SHIFT TO WNW. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE
FROPA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN
15 KNOTS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES
THIS EVENING THEN TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT VEERING TO MORE
WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE TONIGHT ON LAKE ERIE AND THURSDAY ON
LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THIS
WEEKEND. REMEMBER...WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SFM
NEAR TERM...RSH/SFM
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SFM
MARINE...SFM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
325 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-240945-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
325 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK BY LATE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A
SECONDARY LESSER RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO MERGE INTO A LINE...THEY MAY
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WHICH
MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IF SEVERAL STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA...SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ005>008-240945-
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
325 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. IF SEVERAL STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA...SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-240945-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
325 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EAST INTO
LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO BY MID TO LATE EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SFM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
601 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

NYZ010>012-085-232300-
ERIE NY-GENESEE NY-WYOMING NY-
601 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 557 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
  POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.
  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF DERBY...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 45 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM MAY INCLUDE...
  LACKAWANNA AND BUFFALO
  WEST SENECA
  DEPEW AND CHEEKTOWAGA
  LANCASTER AND EAST AURORA

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4271 7905 4275 7892 4279 7887 4285 7887
      4291 7892 4295 7893 4295 7895 4298 7899
      4310 7823 4271 7814 4267 7906

TJP