Small Craft Advisory 111, NWS Buffalo, NY

223 
WHUS71 KBUF 120245
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
945 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010

LOZ042-121045-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0111.101212T0600Z-101212T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
945 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST
SUNDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST
SUNDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SAGE

109 
WHUS71 KBUF 120854
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 AM EST SUN DEC 12 2010

LEZ040-041-121700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0112.101213T0200Z-101214T1000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
354 AM EST SUN DEC 12 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
TUESDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-121700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0111.000000T0000Z-101212T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
354 AM EST SUN DEC 12 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

484 
WHUS71 KBUF 121439
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
939 AM EST SUN DEC 12 2010

LOZ042-122245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0111.000000T0000Z-101212T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
939 AM EST SUN DEC 12 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-122245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0112.101213T0200Z-101214T1000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
939 AM EST SUN DEC 12 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

102 
WHUS71 KBUF 122023
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
323 PM EST SUN DEC 12 2010

LOZ042-130430-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0111.000000T0000Z-101212T2300Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0112.101213T0800Z-101214T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
323 PM EST SUN DEC 12 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 5 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 5 PM EST
TUESDAY. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-130430-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0112.101213T0800Z-101214T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
323 PM EST SUN DEC 12 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 5 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 5 PM EST
TUESDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-130430-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0112.101213T1200Z-101214T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
323 PM EST SUN DEC 12 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 5 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 5 PM EST
TUESDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-130430-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0112.101213T0200Z-101214T2200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
323 PM EST SUN DEC 12 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SFM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1220 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...BEFORE A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS US
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOON UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN AT
MIDDAY...BUT SHARP CLEARING SLOWLY WORKING NORTH AND HAS ADVANCED
TO AN ANGOLA TO AVON LINE AT NOON. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING TO WORK UP ACROSS
BUF/IAG AND EVEN ROC BY MID AFTERNOON SO WILL TWEAK CLOUD GRIDS
TO ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND RAISE TEMPS ANOTHER DEG OR TWO...A
RATHER PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH MILD TEMPS LEADING TO A SLOW THAW
OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK. PREV DISC FOLLOWS...

TONIGHT...COMPLEX LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX AS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD ADVANCES NORTHWARD. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR CRITICAL TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE
TONIGHT AS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED BUT IT
IS A BIT TOO EARLY FOR HEADLINES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERING TIGHTLY AROUND A COMMON SOLUTION NOW
WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWING
A VERY SHARP AND WELL DEFINED PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ACROSS
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ALREADY
UNDERWAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN REACH A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO JUST
NORTH OF BUFFALO BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT OF THE OCCLUDING CYCLONE OVER OHIO...WITH THIS TRIPLE
POINT LOW BECOMING THE PRIMARY FEATURE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE WAA AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL OVERSPREAD
THE LOWER LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE
STRONGEST LIFT WILL FOCUS ON CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY DURING THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
NOSE OF A 60-70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL BRING A RATHER
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAINFALL INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT INITIALLY TO PREVENT FULL MELTING OF
HYDROMETEORS AND ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALSO OF
CONCERN...SURFACE TEMPS MAY STILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW
HOURS SUNDAY MORNING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...MAINLY ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET.

ANY MIXED PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPS WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPS RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL QPF FOR SUNDAY DOES NOT
LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
A HALF INCH OR LESS OF RAIN. THE MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS ALSO
FORECAST LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
SNOWMELT TO PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RUNOFF AND RISES ON
CREEKS/RIVERS...BUT NO FLOOD PROBLEMS ARE FORESEEN AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE LIMITED QPF. THE LOW LEVEL JET IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FOLLOWING THE INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY SLOT TO
BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE DRY SLOT IS NOT ALL THAT WELL DEFINED...SO THE RAIN
WILL PROBABLY NOT END ALTOGETHER BUT RATHER TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WRAP BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DRY SLOT STILL IN PLACE...SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE VERY LIMITED THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COLD AIR ARRIVES FIRST...WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW PRODUCING SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING ON THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF INTO QUEBEC WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO FILTER BACK
INTO THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -14C TO -18C BY MONDAY
EVENING DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE IN THE MORNING
INTO THE TEENS BY EVENING IN MOST AREAS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
HEIGHT FALLS UNDER THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL
SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AREAWIDE DURING THE DAY WITH VERY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. WITH THE COLDER
AIR FLOODING BACK INTO THE REGION AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...OUR
ATTENTION WILL AGAIN TURN BACK TO THE MESOSCALE AND LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL.

OFF LAKE ERIE...MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF WSW FLOW FOR AWHILE
MONDAY AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS. LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON A SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST...PUSHING LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE IT WILL REMAIN. UPSTREAM SUPPORT FROM LAKE HURON MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH AN
INCREASING RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED WITH
THE BEST HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL APPEARING TO BE THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE
AND WESTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY GIVEN CURRENT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
FORECAST.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO JUST A FEW HOURS LATER.
INITIAL WSW FLOW WILL TARGET THE TUG HILL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN THE SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND PUSH LAKE EFFECT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST SHORES MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY BE A LITTLE TOO NORTHERLY TO ALLOW A
GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION. GIVEN FAVORABLE TEMPS AND DEEP MOISTURE THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT AGAIN BY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INCLUDING METRO ROCHESTER.

GIVEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS THE 5TH AND 6TH PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR A WATCH FOR EITHER LAKE.
INHERENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME RANGE PRECLUDE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY HEADLINE...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION IN
THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL AGAIN BECOME TRAPPED
FROM MOVING OUT BY A STRONG AND PERSISTENT HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK OVER
GREENLAND. THIS WILL SLOW THE PATTERN EVOLUTION DOWN AND ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO SIT OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENT NOW IN FORECASTING NORTHWEST FLOW
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. OFF LAKE ERIE THIS
WILL TARGET LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. OFF
LAKE ONTARIO MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE WILL BE TARGETED FROM ROCHESTER
EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...THE FLOW APPEARS IT
MAY BE NORTHERLY ENOUGH TO EVEN BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT TO NIAGARA
AND ORLEANS COUNTIES. STILL FAR TOO EARLY FOR ANY ESTIMATE ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT THE FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE RANGE AND PERSISTENT NATURE
OF THE FLOW DIRECTION WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER DECENT EVENT IS
POSSIBLE.

LATER NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFIES WITH A SLOW
MODERATING TREND AND GRADUAL WEAKENING OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY.
INTERESTINGLY...THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BECOMES SO WRAPPED UP THAT WE EVENTUALLY SEE WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
APPEARS ON THE HORIZON AFTER THE LAKE EFFECT OF THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE NORTH OF THE SRN TIER AT MIDDAY...BUT IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY 22Z OR SO.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ILLINOIS TO NEAR TORONTO BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA DURING SUNDAY. IT
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN AT ALL THE TAF SITES...BUT
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OVER SOME
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN THE RAIN AND
LOWER CIGS...STARTING ABOUT 08Z AT KJHW...09-10Z AT BUF/IAG AND
11-12Z AT KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT..MVFR/IFR IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST.
MONDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SE OF THE
LAKES.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL KEEP
WIND AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH GENTLE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES ANTICIPATED ON BOTH LAKES.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEAR CHICAGO EARLY TONIGHT
TO WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNDAY EVENING THEN INTO QUEBEC BY MONDAY
MORNING WHILE DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY. GALES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...SFM/TMA
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SFM
MARINE...TMA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
503 AM EST SAT DEC 11 2010

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-121015-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
503 AM EST SAT DEC 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. IT MAY BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME SLEET...WET SNOW...OR FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN AT
THE START.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. IT MAY BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR WET SNOW TO MIX IN EARLY
IN THE DAY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE A HALF
INCH OR LESS...BUT MAY COMBINE WITH SNOWMELT TO PRODUCE RISES
ALONG AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...MAINLY EAST OF
THE LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY FOR ANY
SPECIFICS ON EXACT PLACEMENT OR AMOUNTS...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS ONLY MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-121015-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
503 AM EST SAT DEC 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK