Alert archive / New York / River Flood Warnings in 2010

River Flood Warning 13, NWS Buffalo, NY

December 1, 2010Allegany County, Livingston County, Wyoming County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this river flood warning at Dec 1, 2010, 9:07 AM EST for Allegany County, Livingston County, Wyoming County, New York. It took effect at Dec 1, 2010, 12:13 PM EST. It was in force for 20 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 1, 2010, 9:07 AM EST (14:07 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 1, 2010, 12:13 PM EST
Expired
Dec 2, 2010, 7:44 AM EST
In force
20 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Allegany County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Genesee River at Portageville (PRTN6). The gauge peaked at 21.63 ft at Dec 2, 2010, 1:00 AM EST.

actionminormoderate1015202512/0112/0212/03
Action stage
17 ft
Minor stage
19 ft
Moderate stage
25 ft
Major stage
29 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 04223000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

607 
WGUS41 KBUF 011407
FLWBUF
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
907 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW YORK...

  GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC003-051-121-012007-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FL.W.0013.101201T1717Z-101202T0824Z/
/PRTN6.1.ER.101201T1717Z.101202T0000Z.101202T0224Z.NO/
907 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 8 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 20.0 FEET THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...RIVER BEGINS TO OVERFLOW INTO 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS FROM BELFAST TO LETCHWORTH. LITTLE DAMAGE.

$$

APFFEL
6 follow-up statements
080 
WGUS81 KBUF 011500
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1000 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  GENESEE RIVER AT WELLSVILLE
  GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC009-012100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-101204T0000Z/
/OLNN6.2.ER.101201T1159Z.101202T1200Z.101203T1800Z.NO/
1000 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT 8 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 18.7 FEET
  THURSDAY MORNING. 


$$

NYC009-012100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-101203T2200Z/
/SLMN6.2.ER.101201T1415Z.101202T1800Z.101203T1600Z.NO/
1000 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  THIS MORNING AND CREST NEAR 16.2 FEET EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


$$

NYC003-051-121-012100-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0012.101201T1459Z-101202T0600Z/
/WLLN6.1.ER.101201T1433Z.101201T1800Z.101202T0000Z.NO/
1000 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT WELLSVILLE
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  THIS MORNING AND CREST NEAR 12.8 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...GENERAL FLOODING ALONG THE 
  RIVER IN LOWLYING AREAS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY. SOME RESIDENTIAL AND
  COMMERCIAL DAMAGES. THE LEVEE PROTECTS MOST OF WELLSVILLE.

$$

NYC003-051-121-012100-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.101201T1713Z-101202T0824Z/
/PRTN6.1.ER.101201T1713Z.101202T0000Z.101202T0224Z.NO/
1000 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 20.0 FEET THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...RIVER BEGINS TO OVERFLOW INTO 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS FROM BELFAST TO LETCHWORTH. LITTLE DAMAGE.

$$
875 
WGUS81 KBUF 012021
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  GENESEE RIVER AT WELLSVILLE
  GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.

&&

NYC009-020221-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-101203T1825Z/
/OLNN6.2.ER.101201T1159Z.101202T1200Z.101203T1225Z.NO/
321 PM EST WED DEC 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 2 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 15.5 FEET
  THURSDAY MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...THERE IS MODERATE FLOODING. WATER AFFECTS 
  RIVERVIEW SCHOOL OF AVIATION...1.5 MILES UPSTREAM OF UNION STREET 
  BRIDGE. LOCAL FLOODING OCCURS IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES 
  INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PORTVILLE UPSTREAM.

$$

NYC009-020221-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-101203T1227Z/
/SLMN6.2.ER.101201T1354Z.101202T0000Z.101203T0627Z.NO/
321 PM EST WED DEC 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 3 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 14.4 FEET
  THIS EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...MODERATE FLOODING ALONG 
  ENTIRE REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES. MORE WIDESPREAD 
  FLOODING UPSTREAM.

$$

NYC003-051-121-020221-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-101202T0355Z/
/WLLN6.1.ER.101201T1450Z.101201T1815Z.101201T2155Z.NO/
321 PM EST WED DEC 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT WELLSVILLE
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT 3 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOOD...BANKS OVERFLOW 
  AND BEGIN TO FLOOD LOWLYING AREAS OUTSIDE THE LEVEEES IN PLACES 
  SUCH AS SCIO AND WHITESVILLE. MINOR DAMAGES.

$$

NYC003-051-121-020221-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-101202T1027Z/
/PRTN6.1.ER.101201T1643Z.101202T0000Z.101202T0427Z.NO/
321 PM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 3 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 21.0 FEET
  THIS EVENING. 

$$

HITCHCOCK/APFFEL
971 
WGUS81 KBUF 020219
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
919 PM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  GENESEE RIVER AT WELLSVILLE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC009-020819-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-101203T2000Z/
/OLNN6.2.ER.101201T1159Z.101202T1200Z.101203T1400Z.NO/
919 PM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 8 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 15.5 FEET
  THURSDAY MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...THERE IS MODERATE FLOODING. WATER AFFECTS 
  RIVERVIEW SCHOOL OF AVIATION, 1.5 MILES UPSTREAM OF UNION STREET 
  BRIDGE. LOCAL FLOODING OCCURS IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES 
  INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PORTVILLE UPSTREAM.

$$

NYC009-020819-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-101203T1816Z/
/SLMN6.2.ER.101201T1354Z.101202T1200Z.101203T1216Z.NO/
919 PM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 9 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 14.5 FEET
  THURSDAY MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...MODERATE FLOODING ALONG 
  ENTIRE REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES. MORE WIDESPREAD 
  FLOODING UPSTREAM.

$$

NYC003-051-121-020249-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-101202T0355Z/
/WLLN6.1.ER.101201T1450Z.101201T1815Z.101202T0105Z.NO/
919 PM EST WED DEC 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT WELLSVILLE.
* AT 9 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.9 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING AND WILL 
  CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 6.0 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOOD...BANKS OVERFLOW 
  AND BEGIN TO FLOOD LOWLYING AREAS OUTSIDE THE LEVEEES IN PLACES 
  SUCH AS SCIO AND WHITESVILLE. MINOR DAMAGES.

$$

NYC003-051-121-020818-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-101202T1211Z/
/PRTN6.1.ER.101201T1643Z.101202T0200Z.101202T0611Z.NO/
919 PM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 9 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT.


$$
743 
WGUS81 KBUF 020525
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1225 AM EST THU DEC 2 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC009-021125-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-101203T2000Z/
/OLNN6.2.ER.101201T1159Z.101202T1200Z.101203T1400Z.NO/
1225 AM EST THU DEC 2 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 15.5 FEET
  AROUND 7AM THIS MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...THERE IS MODERATE FLOODING. WATER AFFECTS 
  RIVERVIEW SCHOOL OF AVIATION, 1.5 MILES UPSTREAM OF UNION STREET 
  BRIDGE. LOCAL FLOODING OCCURS IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES 
  INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PORTVILLE UPSTREAM.

$$

NYC009-021125-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-101203T1734Z/
/SLMN6.2.ER.101201T1354Z.101202T0045Z.101203T1134Z.NO/
1225 AM EST THU DEC 2 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 12 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.3 FEET AND FALLING SLOWLY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AROUND 14.4 FEET DURING THE EVENING.

* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...MODERATE FLOODING ALONG 
  ENTIRE REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES. MORE WIDESPREAD 
  FLOODING UPSTREAM.

$$

NYC003-051-121-021125-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-101202T1902Z/
/PRTN6.1.ER.101201T1643Z.101202T0600Z.101202T1302Z.NO/
1225 AM EST THU DEC 2 2010

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 11 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 21.6 FEET
  AROUND 130AM. 


$$
680 
WGUS81 KBUF 021025
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
525 AM EST THU DEC 2 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC009-021625-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-101203T2000Z/
/OLNN6.2.ER.101201T1159Z.101202T1200Z.101203T1400Z.NO/
525 AM EST THU DEC 2 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 4 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 15.5 FEET
  THIS MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...THERE IS MODERATE FLOODING. WATER AFFECTS 
  RIVERVIEW SCHOOL OF AVIATION, 1.5 MILES UPSTREAM OF UNION STREET 
  BRIDGE. LOCAL FLOODING OCCURS IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES 
  INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PORTVILLE UPSTREAM.

$$

NYC009-021625-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-101203T1734Z/
/SLMN6.2.ER.101201T1354Z.101202T0045Z.101203T1134Z.NO/
525 AM EST THU DEC 2 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 5 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 14.2 FEET
  THIS MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...MODERATE FLOODING ALONG 
  ENTIRE REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES. MORE WIDESPREAD 
  FLOODING UPSTREAM.

$$

NYC003-051-121-021625-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-101202T2200Z/
/PRTN6.1.ER.101201T1643Z.101202T0645Z.101202T1600Z.NO/
525 AM EST THU DEC 2 2010

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 5 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.5 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 20.8 FEET
  THIS MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...RIVER BEGINS TO OVERFLOW INTO 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS FROM BELFAST TO LETCHWORTH. LITTLE DAMAGE.

$$
858 
WGUS81 KBUF 021244
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 AM EST THU DEC 2 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC003-051-121-021314-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-101202T2200Z/
/PRTN6.1.ER.101201T1643Z.101202T0645Z.101202T1142Z.NO/
744 AM EST THU DEC 2 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE.
* AT 7 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.7 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AND WILL 
  CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 12.1 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...RIVER BEGINS TO OVERFLOW INTO 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS FROM BELFAST TO LETCHWORTH. LITTLE DAMAGE.

$$

SFM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 1, 6:41 AM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 1, 6:41 AM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
641 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL LIFT NORTH INTO JAMES BAY
TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE...STEADY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST WHILE A WESTERLY FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...THEN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT A LITTLE TO THE
WEST OF A KELM-KFZY-KART AXIS. A RATHER LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS BOUNDARY...WITH ITS BACK EDGE NOW RUNNING FROM A
LITTLE WEST OF KERI TO A LITTLE EAST OF LONDON ONTARIO. WHILE THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THIS IS STILL FALLING IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ENOUGH
COLD AIR HAS PENETRATED INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY MID MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE...THE STEADIER
FRONTAL RAINS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...PERHAPS
CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN JUST PLAIN WET SNOW BEFORE
ENDING AS PER CURRENT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT THE FRONTAL
PRECIP TO END IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS TIMING...WILL OPT TO
LEAVE THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES IN
PLACE JUST AS IT IS. FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE WATCH
AND EXPECTED HYDRO CONCERNS...PLEASE CONSULT OUR HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW.

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT RATHER ABRUPTLY TO WESTERLY...AS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER FAR
WESTERN NY STATE. WHILE THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH THIS
TRANSITION...THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE ADVISORY-CRITERIA SOUTHEAST WINDS UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING...THANKS TO FUNNELLING EFFECTS
DOWN THE VALLEY. FOR THIS REASON...WE HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING...BY
WHICH TIME THE FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...A WESTERLY FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUNGING TO THE -8C TO
-10C RANGE BY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING SO THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WITH LIMITED SHEAR AND A RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOUND BELOW A
CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 8-9 KFT...THIS COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES
DURING THE COURSE OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BEGINNING AS
SOON AS MIDDAY OFF LAKE ERIE...AND EARLY THIS EVENING OFF LAKE
ONTARIO. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS REGARDING THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
THE LAKE EFFECT...

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE LAKE SNOWS ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED TO FORM ON A
260 TO 270 DEGREE FLOW DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...THEN SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS
MORE TO THE 250 TO 260 DEGREE RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING AND
NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREAFTER...THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE PERHAPS STARTING A VERY
SLOW DRIFT SOUTHWARD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE STEERING WINDS BEGIN TO
VEER EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING ON A GENERAL 260 TO 270 DEGREE
FLOW...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE ACTIVITY FORMING FROM THE TUG HILL
REGION NORTHWARD TO ABOUT WATERTOWN. WITH THE FLOW THEN REMAINING
ROUGHLY THE SAME THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE BAND
WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AND FOCUS ON THIS SAME GENERAL AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS WAS POINTED OUT YESTERDAY...LAKE INDUCED CAPES WITH THIS EVENT
WILL AVERAGE 300-400 J/KG...WITH A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 8-9 KFT.
THE AIRMASS UNDER THIS CAP IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
MOISTURE IN IT THAN WITH LAST WEEK'S EVENT...WITH THE PRIME
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NEARLY SATURATED THIS TIME AROUND. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SNOW BEING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE...UNLIKE THE
LAST EVENT THAT FEATURED PLENTY OF GRAUPEL. AS SUCH...WOULD EXPECT A
MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW THIS TIME...PARTICULARLY ONCE
THE BANDS GET BETTER ESTABLISHED...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING OFF LAKE ERIE...AND LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...ALSO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
GRAUPEL WITH THIS EVENT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING.

GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR THIS EVENT AND EXPECTED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY /SEE THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS ON THURSDAY'S FORECAST/...WE HAVE ELECTED TO HOIST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES...AFFECTING A REGION
FROM NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TO THE TRADITIONAL
SNOW BELTS OFF LAKE ERIE...AND THE OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS COUNTY
REGION EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MORE DETAILS ON THE BEGINNING AND END
TIMES OF THESE WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
SECTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS AFD...AND IN THE FORTHCOMING WSW
PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUMES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE ONGOING
AS WE START THURSDAY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...A WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF -10C AIR WILL FOCUS THE
LAKE PLUME ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE INTO WYOMING COUNTY AND ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LAKE
SNOWS WILL ONLY BE AS FAR NORTH AS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS WITH THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA NORTH OF THE MAIN BAND. A WEAK TROUGH APPEARS
TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW JUST
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE LAKE PLUME FARTHER SOUTH INTO SKI COUNTRY. THE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING THE LAKE SNOWS
TO FOCUS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND JAMESTOWN AREAS. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF A FOOT OR MORE IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOWS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A PRIMARILY WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS THE HEART
OF THE LAKE PLUME ACROSS THE TUG HILL...MOST LIKELY IN BETWEEN
WATERTOWN AND FULTON. AS IS THE CASE OFF LAKE ERIE THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT TO THE LAKE BAND AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS
THE TUG HILL. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF A FOOT OR MORE IN THE
MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS.

LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION COULD EXPERIENCE A
NUISANCE SNOW SHOWER DURING ITS PASSAGE WITH CONTINUED...MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A STRONG GREENLAND BLOCK
WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN INITIALLY AND AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING COLD WEATHER OVER OUR REGION. SOME
DETAILS....

A TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...
BUT A LOWER CAP AND A LESS FAVORABLE FETCH SHOULD KEEP SNOW ACCUMS
TO A MINIMUM. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL YIELD
THE OCCASIONAL FLURRY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A STORM SYSTEM WELL SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY MORNING IS
DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO DEEPEN AND RETROGRADE BACK
ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION WHILE ALSO STARING TO CIRCULATE A
WEALTH OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS GOING SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WITH ALL OTHER AREAS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AS WELL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR GENERAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL CIRCULATE OVER OUR OPEN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT A LITTLE TO THE
WEST OF A KELM-KFZY-KART AXIS. A RATHER LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS BOUNDARY...WITH ITS BACK EDGE NOW RUNNING FROM A
LITTLE WEST OF KERI TO A LITTLE EAST OF LONDON ONTARIO. WHILE THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THIS IS STILL FALLING IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ENOUGH
COLD AIR HAS PENETRATED INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY MID MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE...THE STEADIER
FRONTAL RAINS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...PERHAPS
CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN JUST PLAIN WET SNOW BEFORE
ENDING AS PER CURRENT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT THE FRONTAL
PRECIP TO END IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM LIFR TO MVFR.

AFTER THE FRONTAL PRECIP ENDS...GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS EAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. IN THESE LATTER AREAS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. THESE LOWER CONDITIONS MAY
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KBUF AND KART LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL
LIFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES. FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR
EXCEPT MVFR/IFR IN LOCAL LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL LIFT NORTH INTO JAMES BAY
TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE...BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER
SHARPLY TO WESTERLY...WITH BRISK WESTERLIES THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A CYCLONIC FLOW OF MUCH COLDER
AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND...ALL
EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE WITH THE EARLY
MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RADAR ESTIMATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1.5 TO 3.0
INCH PLUS RANGE IN THE HEADWATERS OF BOTH THE ALLEGHENY AND
GENESEE RIVER BASINS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THESE
RIVERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALONG THE ALLEGHENY
RIVER...OLEAN WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AND AT SALAMANCA
THIS EVENING. AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST SUGGESTS JUST BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF BOTH POINTS EXCEEDING
MODERATE. ON THE GENESEE RIVER...WELLSVILLE WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE
LATE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW MODERATE FLOOD.
PORTAGEVILLE REMAINING JUST UNDER FLOOD AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
MONITOR THIS POINT CLOSELY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE BUFFALO AREA CREEK
BASIN...GENERALLY IN THE TWO-THIRDS TO ONE INCH RANGE. ALTHOUGH WE
WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON THE RIVERS AND CREEKS HERE...BANKFUL
CONDITIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO ALTHOUGH CAYUGA CREEK
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AS IT COULD NUDGE ABOVE ITS
8 FOOT FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING.

BLACK RIVER BASIN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR GENERALLY IN THE HALF
INCH TO THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE BUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY
SHOULD EXCEED AN INCH AND A HALF. BOONVILLE AND WATERTOWN SHOULD
GO ABOVE FLOOD IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 DAYS BASED ON THIS RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ003>008-013-014-020-
     021.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
         MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ044-045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR/SAGE/WCH
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 1, 4:57 AM EST, 4 hours 10 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
457 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

NYZ007-008-021000-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
457 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-021000-
OSWEGO-
457 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003>005-013-014-021-021000-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
457 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-002-021000-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-
457 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ020-021000-
CATTARAUGUS-
457 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-019-085-021000-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
457 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010-011-021000-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
457 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-021000-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
457 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 30, 10:04 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningBUFCattaraugus4 days
Nov 30, 10:04 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningBUFCattaraugus4 days
Nov 30, 11:21 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningBUFAllegany, Livingston, Wyoming22 hr
Dec 1, 4:04 AM ESTLake Effect Snow WarningBUFCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Jefferson, Lewis and 2 more57 hr
Dec 1, 5:50 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua10 hr
Dec 1, 7:24 AM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryBUFLivingston, Ontario5 hr
Dec 1, 8:33 AM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryBUFMonroe, Wayne4 hr
Dec 1, 9:39 AM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryBUFCayuga, Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego7 hr
Dec 1, 10:16 AM ESTFlash Flood WarningBUFLewis, Oswego5 hr
Dec 1, 3:33 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningBUFCattaraugus10 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in New York, 2010Every river flood warning in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.