Flood Watch 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

629 
WGUS61 KBUF 291348
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
948 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION ON THURSDAY...

.TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE WILL RACE NORTH FROM THE CAROLINAS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
RAIN ALONG ITS TRACK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THE PERIOD OF
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NYZ004>008-014-292200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.100930T1200Z-101001T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...
WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...CANANDAIGUA
948 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...NORTHERN CAYUGA...
  OSWEGO...ONTARIO AND WAYNE.

* FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD 
  ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. 

* RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE
  LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL STREAMS
  AND CREEKS. LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES
  BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO FLOOD UNLESS RAINFALL REACHES 4 INCHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

965 
WGUS61 KBUF 292004
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
404 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION ON THURSDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND RACE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO EASTERN NEW YORK STATE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW
AND THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK. JUST A SMALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

NYZ004>008-014-300415-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.100930T1200Z-101001T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...
WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...CANANDAIGUA
404 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS... NORTHERN CAYUGA...
  OSWEGO...ONTARIO AND WAYNE.

* FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN ABOUT A 12 HOUR PERIOD ARE
  POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

* RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE 
  LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL 
  STREAMS AND CREEKS. LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS WILL HAVE 
  SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO FLOOD UNLESS RAINFALL 
  REACHES 4 INCHES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW
AND THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK. JUST A SMALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

269 
WGUS61 KBUF 300209
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1009 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION ON THURSDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND RACE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO EASTERN NEW YORK STATE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW
AND THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK. JUST A SMALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

NYZ004>008-014-301015-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.100930T1200Z-101001T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...
WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...CANANDAIGUA
1009 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
 FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
 NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ONTARIO AND 
 WAYNE.

* FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN ABOUT A 12 HOUR PERIOD 
 ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. 

* RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE 
 LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL 
 STREAMS AND CREEKS. LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS WILL HAVE 
 SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO FLOOD UNLESS RAINFALL 
 REACHES 4 INCHES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW
AND THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK. JUST A SMALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

379 
WGUS61 KBUF 300959
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
559 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...

.LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL
RACE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO EASTERN NEW YORK
STATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND BRING
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RAINS MAY BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE
FLOOD PROBLEMS.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK. 

NYZ004>008-014-301630-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.100930T1200Z-101001T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...
WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...CANANDAIGUA
559 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
 FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
 NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ONTARIO AND 
 WAYNE.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ARE
  POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

* RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE 
 LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL 
 STREAMS AND CREEKS. LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS WILL HAVE 
 SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO FLOOD UNLESS RAINFALL 
 REACHES 4 INCHES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW
AND THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK. JUST A SMALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

TMA

947 
WGUS61 KBUF 301418
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1018 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA LATE THIS MORNING WILL RACE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO EASTERN NEW YORK STATE BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RAINS MAY BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOOD
PROBLEMS FROM THE FINGER LAKES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

NYZ004>008-014-302230-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-101001T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...
WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...CANANDAIGUA
1018 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS... NORTHERN CAYUGA...
  OSWEGO...ONTARIO AND WAYNE.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ARE
  LIKELY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES
  POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN
  FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

* RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE
  LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL STREAMS
  AND CREEKS. LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES
  BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO FLOOD UNLESS RAINFALL EXCEEDS 4 INCHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

688 
WGUS61 KBUF 301949
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
349 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING LIKELY FROM THE FINGER LAKES
TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RACE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO EASTERN NEW YORK
STATE THIS EVENING. A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL TO ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
RAINS WILL BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR FLOOD PROBLEMS FROM
THE FINGER LAKES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

NYZ004>008-014-010400-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-101001T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...
WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...CANANDAIGUA
349 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS... NORTHERN CAYUGA...
  OSWEGO...ONTARIO AND WAYNE.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ARE 
  LIKELY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES 
  POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN 
  FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. 

* RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE
  LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL STREAMS
  AND CREEKS. LARGER RIVERS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT ARE
  UNLIKELY TO FLOOD UNLESS RAINFALL EXCEEDS 4 INCHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
253 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A SURFACE LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT TODAY WITH SOME LIMITED
SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. A TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY AND WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK REMAINS
CLOUDY WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHTER RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HOLD CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EXPECT A CLEARING TREND DURING THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE
EXCEPTION BEING UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE CLOUDS AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
PERSIST TO MID DAY. 850MB TEMPS OF +6C TO +8C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE
REPLACED BY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
LOWERING CEILINGS AND HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL START TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE FINGER LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE PRECIP SHIELD FROM THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM SPREADS RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTH. WILL SEE ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE HEAVIER
STEADY PRECIP WILL BE ARRIVING AFTER DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY STATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 50S WHERE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT IN THE MID 50S FOR
THE FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL NY WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGS COPIOUS MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM INTERACTION BETWEEN A
STALLED OUT FRONT ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND A TROPICAL SYSTEM
(STORM?) WHICH LOOKS TO RACE NORTHWARD ON AN INTERIOR TRACK FROM NC
TO NY STATE ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A 50 TO 100 MILE SWATH OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...IN THE ORDER OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IN ABOUT A 12
HOUR PERIOD...AND MAIN QUESTION FOR US IS EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS
SWATH.

CONTRARY TO PREVIOUS RUNS...00Z MODEL HAVE COME INTO CLOSE CONSENSUS
WITH THIS AXIS...AND TAKE IT FROM ABOUT STATE COLLEGE TO SYRACUSE...
WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION AND NORTH
COUNTRY PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BEST ESTIMATE FOR TIMING FOR
OUR AREA WOULD BE FROM ABOUT 15Z THURS TO 06Z FRI...BUT GFS IS A
GOOD 3 TO 6 HOURS FASTER WITH EVERYTHING. THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP
GRADIENT TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD...UTILIZING THE 06Z
HPC QPF GRIDS...WITH VIRTUALLY NOTHING AT BUF/IAG...NEAR 1 INCH
ROCHESTER TO ALLEG COUNTY...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM EASTERN ONTARIO
AND WAYNE COS EAST ACROSS OSWEGO/JEFF/LEWIS. THIS PLACEMENT OF
COURSE IS NOT ETCHED IN STONE AND COULD VARY A GOOD 50 MILES EITHER
WAY...BUT THIS IS BEST CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME.

SO...WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL HOIST A GENERIC FLOOD WATCH FOR
OUR EASTERNMOST 6 COUNTIES...FROM ONTARIO/WAYNE EAST ACROSS CAYUGA
TO OSW/JEFF/LEWIS...WITH TIMING OF 12Z THURS TO 10Z FRI. WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 6-12 HOUR PERIOD.
THIS IS ACTUALLY A BIT BELOW THE FFG FOR THE REGION...BUT A SOLID 3
INCH RAIN WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CAUSE SOME LOCAL FLOODING. THE HEAVIER
RAIN MAY CLIP EASTERN ALLEG COUNTY AS WELL BUT LEFT THEM OUT OF THE
WATCH FOR NOW.

FURTHER WEST...WILL USE A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS...FROM ABOUT 50 NR
LK ERIE TO NEAR 100 GEN VALLEY...PEAKING AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON THURS. HELD ONTO LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AWHILE THURS
NT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY CLEAR FASTER THAN EXPECTED.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY. MAY HAVE THE TYPICAL
MORNING LOW CLOUD BUT WITH GOOD RIDGING REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE
WEST AND RESTRICTED A CHC ONLY IN MORNING EAST. 850 MB TEMPS OF +3
OR SO WOULD SUPPORT U50S/NR 60...ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL TO START
THE NEW MONTH. COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FRI NT...SOME LK RESPONSE
POSSIBLE BUT DRY AIR AND NNW FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT ANYTHING AT FIRST.
USED SLGT CHC POPS SE OF LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FIRST REAL TASTE OF AUTUMN FOR OCTOBER'S FIRST WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL (MAXES L50S...MINS M30S-L40S). ONLY SOME
LIMITED LK EFFECT EXPECTED BUT MANY INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE THEIR
FIRST FROST BY MONDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN GENERAL...00Z RUNS OF
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 500 MB TROF AXIS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND CROSSING THE REGION THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
AS THE TROF AXIS APPROACHES SAT NT. FLOW CONTINUES VERY NORTHERLY
THOUGH...SO FETCH WILL BE LIMITED...AND WORTH ONLY LOW CHC POPS. EC
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD DISRUPT ANY LK EFFECT AS WINDS TURN
NE...BUT STILL HELD 25-30 POPS S OF THE LAKES FOR NOW. 850 MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -2C SUPPORT ONLY L50S. FROST/FREEZE ISSUES WILL
INCREASE... ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS AND EC BUILD RIDGING IN
FOR A DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL MONDAY. GFS CONTINUES THE DRY PATTERN
MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPS...BUT EC STRENGTHENED THE
UPPER LOW OVER OHIO VALLEY AGAIN BY MIDWEEK WITH UNSETTLED WX
RETURNING HERE BY LATER TUE/WED. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KJHW AND KART DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AND DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL LOW MVFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS...KJHW WILL LIKELY GO DOWN TO IFR OR LIFR VSBYS LATE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING THEN BOTH SITES IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID
DAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS THEN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
FURTHER EAST.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER SETTLES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...THEN SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY
AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THE REMAINS OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY WILL TURN
WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ004>008-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ044-045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...APFFEL/SFM
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
411 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-292015-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
411 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003>005-013-014-021-292015-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
411 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NEAR NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. FOR NOW...THE MOST
LIKELY TRACK HAS THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM IS TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...HOWEVER ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME FRAME
THAT THERE IS A CHANCE HEAVY RAIN WILL REACH THE FINGER LAKES
REGION AND GENESEE VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-292015-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
411 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NEAR NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE
HEAVY RAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-292015-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
411 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF