Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2010
Flood Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Mar 12, 2010, 3:53 PM EST for 7 counties in New York. It took effect at Mar 13, 2010, 7:00 AM EST. It was in force for 20 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 12, 2010, 3:53 PM EST (20:53 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 13, 2010, 7:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Mar 14, 2010, 4:15 AM EDT
- In force
- 20 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Wyoming County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 34 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 580 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 140 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 125 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
489 WGUS61 KBUF 122053 FFABUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 353 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010 ...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE SOUTHERN TIER SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY ... .LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...SLOWLY LIFTING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BEFORE EXITING EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE REGION...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND RECENT SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE SOME AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS TO APPROACH BANK FULL. CREEKS IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA INCLUDING THE ELLICOTT CREEK...BUFFALO CREEK...AND CAZENOVIA CREEK WILL BE THE FIRST TO RESPOND...POTENTIALLY APPROACHING FLOOD STATE SATURDAY MORNING. THE CAYUGA CREEK IS ALREADY RUNNING FAIRLY CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE...AND WILL BE ONE TO MONITOR AS WELL. BASED ON THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ANY FLOODING THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD GENERALLY BE MINOR. OTHER RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL RESPOND MORE SLOWLY...SUCH AS THE TONAWONDA CREEK AT RAPIDS...GENESEE RIVER AT WELLSVILLE...AND THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN AND SALAMANCA. AT THESE LOCATIONS...EXPECTED CRESTS WILL NOT BE SUNDAY OR LATER. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUGGEST THESE RIVERS WILL RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE...HOWEVER ANY FLOODING THAT DOES OCCUR WOULD GENERALLY BE OF THE MINOR VARIETY. IN ADDITION TO THE RIVERS AND CREEKS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF STANDING WATER LEFT OVER FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. STEADIER RAINFALL MOVING IN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING MAY RESULT IN NUISANCES SUCH AS PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND WET BASEMENTS. NYZ010-019>021-085-130500- /O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0002.100313T1200Z-100314T1000Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 353 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA... NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE. * FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING * EXPECT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNT IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. * THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND RECENT SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE SOME AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS TO APPROACH BANK FULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ APFFEL
7 follow-up statements
482 WGUS61 KBUF 130315 FFABUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1015 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010 ...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE SOUTHERN TIER SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY ... .LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING EAST ON SUNDAY. VERY MOIST AIR SURGING AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BRING ONE HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE REGION...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RECENT SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE SOME AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS TO APPROACH BANK FULL. CREEKS IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA...INCLUDING ELLICOTT CREEK...BUFFALO CREEK... AND CAZENOVIA CREEK WILL BE THE FIRST TO RESPOND...POTENTIALLY APPROACHING FLOOD STATE SATURDAY MORNING. CAYUGA CREEK WILL BE ONE TO MONITOR AS WELL. BASED ON THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ANY FLOODING THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD GENERALLY BE MINOR. OTHER RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL RESPOND MORE SLOWLY...SUCH AS THE TONAWONDA CREEK AT RAPIDS...GENESEE RIVER AT WELLSVILLE...AND THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN AND SALAMANCA. AT THESE LOCATIONS... EXPECTED CRESTS WILL NOT BE SUNDAY OR LATER. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUGGEST THESE RIVERS WILL RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE... HOWEVER ANY FLOODING THAT DOES OCCUR WOULD GENERALLY BE OF THE MINOR VARIETY. IN ADDITION TO THE RIVERS AND CREEKS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF STANDING WATER LEFT OVER FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. STEADIER RAINFALL MOVING IN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING MAY RESULT IN NUISANCES SUCH AS PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND WET BASEMENTS. NYZ010-019>021-085-131115- /O.EXT.KBUF.FA.A.0002.100313T1200Z-100314T1700Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1015 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE. * FROM 7 AM EST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON * EXPECT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNT IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. * THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND RECENT SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE SOME AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS TO APPROACH BANK FULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$
858 WGUS61 KBUF 130319 CCA FFABUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1017 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010 ...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE SOUTHERN TIER SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY ... .LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING EAST ON SUNDAY. VERY MOIST AIR SURGING AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BRING ONE HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE REGION...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RECENT SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE SOME AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS TO APPROACH BANK FULL. CREEKS IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA...INCLUDING ELLICOTT CREEK...BUFFALO CREEK... AND CAZENOVIA CREEK WILL BE THE FIRST TO RESPOND...POTENTIALLY APPROACHING FLOOD STATE SATURDAY MORNING. CAYUGA CREEK WILL BE ONE TO MONITOR AS WELL. BASED ON THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ANY FLOODING THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD GENERALLY BE MINOR. OTHER RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL RESPOND MORE SLOWLY...SUCH AS THE TONAWONDA CREEK AT RAPIDS...GENESEE RIVER AT WELLSVILLE...AND THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN AND SALAMANCA. AT THESE LOCATIONS... EXPECTED CRESTS WILL NOT BE SUNDAY OR LATER. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUGGEST THESE RIVERS WILL RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE... HOWEVER ANY FLOODING THAT DOES OCCUR WOULD GENERALLY BE OF THE MINOR VARIETY. IN ADDITION TO THE RIVERS AND CREEKS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF STANDING WATER LEFT OVER FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. STEADIER RAINFALL MOVING IN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING MAY RESULT IN NUISANCES SUCH AS PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND WET BASEMENTS. NYZ010-019>021-085-131130- /O.EXT.KBUF.FA.A.0002.100313T1200Z-100314T1700Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1017 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE. * FROM 7 AM EST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON * EXPECT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNT IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. * THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND RECENT SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE SOME AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS TO APPROACH BANK FULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$
158 WGUS61 KBUF 130934 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 434 AM EST SAT MAR 13 2010 ...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OVER THE WEEKEND... .THE MAIN CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL CREATE A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OVER OUR REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY AS IT MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE OVER AN INCH. BECAUSE OF RECENT SNOWMELT...STREAMS ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH BUT ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE. MOST OF THE FASTER RESPONDING STREAMS ARE FALLING AT THIS TIME BECAUSE SNOWMELT HAS LESSENED DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A REDUCTION OF THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW TO MELT. THERE IS STILL BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES LOCKED UP THE THE VERY HEADWATERS OF THE BUFFALO AREA STREAMS BUT ONLY SMALL AREAS. SLOWER STREAMS LIKE TONAWANDA AND ELLICOTT CREEKS ARE STILL RISING. FORECAST RAINFALL IS A LITTLE LESS THAN WAS PROJECTED IN EARLIER FORECASTS BUT THERE STILL MAY BE OVER AN INCH IN 48 HOURS OVER THE WATCH AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR STREAMS AND ISSUE WARNINGS IF NECESSARY. AS OF NOW IF WE DO END UP WITH FLOODING IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. IN ADDITION TO THE RIVERS AND CREEKS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF STANDING WATER LEFT OVER FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. STEADIER RAINFALL MOVING TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN NUISANCES SUCH AS PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND WET BASEMENTS. NYZ010-019>021-085-131745- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.100313T1200Z-100314T1700Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 434 AM EST SAT MAR 13 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE. * THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON * EXPECT 48N HOURS RAIN AMOUNTS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. * THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND RECENT SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE SOME AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS TO APPROACH BANK FULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ SAGE
479 WGUS61 KBUF 131705 FFABUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1205 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010 ...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OVER THIS WEEKEND... .A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CREATE A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE OVER AN INCH IN MANY LOCATIONS. BECAUSE OF RECENT SNOWMELT...STREAMS ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH BUT ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE. DEPENDING ON RESPONSE TIME...SOME OF THE FASTER RESPONDING CREEKS ARE FALLING AT THIS TIME BECAUSE SNOWMELT HAS LESSENED DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WITH SOME SNOW LEFT IN THE HEADWATERS...AND RAINFALL JUST STARTING...FASTER RESPONDING CREEKS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE. SLOWER RESPONDING RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL ALSO FLUCTUATE...JUST WITH LATER AND MORE GRADUAL CREST TIMES. THE STEADIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR STREAMS AND ISSUE WARNINGS IF NECESSARY. AS OF NOW...IF WE DO END UP WITH FLOODING IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. IN ADDITION TO THE RIVERS AND CREEKS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF STANDING WATER LEFT OVER FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. STEADIER RAINFALL MOVING TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN NUISANCES SUCH AS PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND WET BASEMENTS. NYZ001-011-012-140115- /O.EXA.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-100314T1700Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-GENESEE-WYOMING- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BATAVIA...WARSAW 1205 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS EXPANDED THE * FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...GENESEE...NIAGARA AND WYOMING. * THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON * EXPECT 48 HOURS RAIN AMOUNTS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. * THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND RECENT SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE SOME AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS TO APPROACH OR EXCEED BANK FULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ NYZ010-019>021-085-140115- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-100314T1700Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1205 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE. * THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON * EXPECT 48 HOURS RAIN AMOUNTS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. * THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND RECENT SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE SOME AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS TO APPROACH OR EXCEED BANK FULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$
548 WGUS61 KBUF 132105 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 405 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010 ...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS WEEKEND... .A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CREATE A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OVER INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE OVER AN INCH IN MANY LOCATIONS. BECAUSE OF RECENT SNOWMELT...CREEK AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH BUT ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE. DEPENDING ON RESPONSE TIME...SOME OF THE FASTER RESPONDING CREEKS ARE FALLING AT THIS TIME BECAUSE SNOWMELT HAS LESSENED DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WITH SOME SNOW LEFT IN THE HEADWATERS...AND RAINFALL JUST STARTING... FASTER RESPONDING CREEKS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE. SLOWER RESPONDING RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL ALSO FLUCTUATE...JUST WITH LATER AND MORE GRADUAL CREST TIMES. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR STREAMS AND ISSUE WARNINGS IF NECESSARY. AS OF NOW...IF WE DO END UP WITH FLOODING IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. IN ADDITION TO THE RIVERS AND CREEKS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF STANDING WATER LEFT OVER FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. THE STEADIER RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN NUISANCES SUCH AS PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND WET BASEMENTS. NYZ001-010>012-019>021-085-140515- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-100314T1700Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO...BATAVIA... WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK... SPRINGVILLE 405 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON * EXPECT 36 HOURS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. * THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND RECENT SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE SOME AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS TO APPROACH OR EXCEED BANK FULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ TMA
506 WGUS61 KBUF 140253 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 953 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010 ...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... .LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A A VERY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE STEADY RAIN AND RECENT SNOWMELT WILL KEEP AREA CREEK AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT ALL GAGED CREEKS ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH SOME SNOW LEFT IN THE HEADWATERS...AND WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THE FASTER RESPONDING CREEKS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE AND REACH FLOOD STAGE. SLOWER RESPONDING RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL ALSO FLUCTUATE...JUST WITH LATER AND MORE GRADUAL CREST TIMES. IF WE DO END UP WITH FLOODING...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. IN ADDITION TO THE RIVERS AND CREEKS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF STANDING WATER LEFT OVER FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND WET BASEMENTS. NYZ001-010>012-019>021-085-141100- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-100314T1700Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO...BATAVIA... WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK... SPRINGVILLE 953 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON * EXPECT 36 HOURS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. * THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND RECENT SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE SOME AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS TO APPROACH OR EXCEED BANK FULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ TJP
172 WGUS61 KBUF 140815 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 415 AM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010 ...FLOOD THREAT HAS LESSENED... .LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW OF MOIST ATLANTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WERE LESS THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. CREEKS WILL REMAIN SWOLLEN FROM RECENT RAIN AND SNOWMELT BUT THE FAST RESPONDING CREEKS ARE FALLING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT TONAWANDA CREEK MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE OF 12 FEET SOMETIME TONIGHT OR MONDAY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS AND ISSUE WARNINGS IF NEEDED. NYZ001-010>012-019>021-085-140915- /O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-100314T1700Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO...BATAVIA... WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK... SPRINGVILLE 415 AM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED. 48 HOURS TOTALS WERE GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH FROM BUFFALO SOUTHWARD AND CLOSE TO AN INCH NORTH OF BUFFALO. ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED...WE ARE STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON TONAWANDA CREEK WHERE IT MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE SOMETIME TONIGHT OR MONDAY. $$ SAGE
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Mar 12, 12:49 PM EST, 3 hours 4 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 12, 12:49 PM EST, 3 hours 4 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1249 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY
RETREAT AS SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS AND
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY BUT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SPRINGLIKE LEVELS. A MORE GENERAL RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO THE COAST. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY AND RELATIVELY
MILD WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE
PINNING DOWN SUBTLE SOURCES OF LIFT...WHICH IS LEADING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. A WARM AND MOIST EAST TO SOUTH FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH SUBTLE DISTURBANCES SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THIS MORNING...THE FIRST WAVE IN THE FORM OF A WEAK
CYCLONIC KINK IN THE 500 MB FLOW CAUSED A SHEARING LINE OF SHOWERS
TO LIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL...SHOWERS
WERE LIGHT WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN .05 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT A NUISANCE NONETHELESS. EXPECT THIS LINE TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH...BECOMING MORE SCATTERED
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HERE/S WHERE DOWNSLOPING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HAVE ITS CHANCE TO PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SUNSHINE IN FAR WESTERN PARTS OF NEW YORK...WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWING SOME CLEARING ON THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
WHILE SHORT LIVED...THIS MAKES EVEN SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS UNCERTAIN...WITH WARM AIR ALOFT IN THE 12Z BUFFALO
SOUNDING SUGGESTING EVEN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSHINE WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN CLIMB NEAR 60. UNFORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY FOR THE MOST
PART...THUS WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT WILL
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS WARMER HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE OTHER BRIGHT SPOT IN THE FORECAST AREA IS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHERE THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE TOO SHEARED OUT TO RESULT
IN SHOWERS...AND A BIT MORE DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
THIS ALL WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...AS A BLEND OF THE 12Z
NAM AND RUC AND THE 00Z GEM POINT TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA DOES IN
FACT SHOW UP ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...SO WILL BUMP
UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL AS THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
ONE FINAL NOTE ON TEMPERATURES...NOTED MODELS PARTICULARLY
STRUGGLES WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WITH THE NAM/RUC BOTH
SIGNIFICANTLY COLD IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
THIS MAY BE DUE TO RAPIDLY CHANGING SNOW COVER...WITH THE MODELS
PERHAPS UNDER-DOING HOW MUCH SNOW MELT HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED.
WHATEVER THE CASE...NOTED THE REGIONAL GEM/GFS TEND TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THESE MODELS WHILE
ADJUSTING FOR SKY COVER AND THE LATEST SOUNDING.
TONIGHT THE WELL STACKED LOW IS FORECAST CONSISTENTLY BY BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM TO SLIDE EAST AND A BIT SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS WILL SET UP A STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL
KEEP THE HEAVIEST QPF ACROSS THAT AREA WITH THE NORTHERN REACHES OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD STILL IN QUESTION. WE WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LIKELY POPS CLOSE TO
BUFFALO TO CANANDAIGUA LINE. JUST CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH OF THAT
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE HYDROLOGICAL AS OUR REGION
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND SURFACE
REFLECTION AS IT WORKS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST. AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL JET WILL SET UP ON THIS SYSTEM'S NORTHEAST
SIDE...WHICH WILL ACT AS A WARM CONVEYOR BELT TO TRANSPORT AN AXIS
OF HEAVY QPF IN FROM THE OCEAN. ALL MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF THIS...IMPACTING OUR AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM
LATE SAT PM TO EARLY SUN MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE HEAVIEST
QPF BY FAR TO BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO THE
DELMARVA AREA...BUT STILL CAN SEE MAYBE 0.75 TO 1 INCH AVERAGE IN A
12 HOUR PERIOD FROM 00Z SAT TO 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WEST OF
THE FINGER LAKES. THE RAIN WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING NORTH
THOUGH...SO NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE LESS.
NAM AND THE SREF ENSEMBLES HAVE THE PRECIP LIFTING TOO FAR TO THE
NORTH...AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL FORCING OF THE EASTERLY JET. THIS IS
CONTRARY TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH KEEP THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL JET. THE CHOICE OF QPF
IS VERY DIFFICULT...SO WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...FOLLOWED HPC QPF
GRIDS FAIRLY CLOSELY. THIS GIVES A 36 HOUR TOTAL (06Z SAT TO 12Z
SUN) OF AROUND AN INCH FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NY...AND ONLY 0.25
INCH OR SO UP IN NORTH COUNTRY. THE BULK OF THIS RAIN FALLS FROM 18Z
SAT TO 06Z SUN. THIS IS A DECENT RAINFALL BUT NOTHING EXTREME...BUT
COULD COMBINE WITH REMAINING SNOWMELT TO RESULT IN SOME HYDRO
ISSUES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A WATCH AT THIS STAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY BUT DID LOWER TEMPS WELL
DOWN INTO 40S ON THE NORTHEAST FLOW. DRYING MOVES IN SUN NT BUT WILL
KEEP US OVERCAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY PLEASANT ON BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF AS LARGE SFC HIGH SETS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS
UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SETS UP WELL TO OUR EAST. 850 TEMPS AVERAGE
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN 45-50 RANGE
AND MINS 25-35...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS MARCH RETURNS TO ITS
LAMBLIKE WAYS. THE MONTH HAS SEEN NO PRECIP YET...AND REMARKABLY
WILL HAVE SEEN NO SNOW WELL PAST THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. 00Z EC
DOES STEEPEN UP THE TROF ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TO DROP SE
ALONG IT AND PERHAPS THROW SOME CLOUD AND A LOW SHOWER THREAT TO
NORTH COUNTRY AROUND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUF/IAG/ROC...BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z...EXPECT BAND OF SHOWER TO
CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH...ENDING ITS INFLUENCE ON ANY TAF
LOCATIONS. BEHIND THIS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE AS WINDS
SHIFT MORE NE...EXPECT A MVFR CLOUD DECK TO FORM THOUGH TIMING
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. ABOUT THIS TIME...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
PASS ACROSS NW NEW YORK...POTENTIALLY EFFECTING THESE SITES AT
TIMES. SE WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER AN
INVERSION AT 1500-2500 FEET WILL KEEP MUCH OF THIS
ALOFT...RESULTING IN LLWS. EXPECT STEADY RAINFALL TO MOVE IN
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
JHW...EXPECT SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE SITE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CIGS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
WINDS ALOFT PICK UP THIS EVENING...BUT ARE KEPT ALOFT DUE TO AN
INVERSION AT 1500 TO 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN INCREASING LLWS.
STEADY RAIN TO MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING.
ART...EXPECT LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR RADIATION FOG THIS EVENING...THOUGH
ITS UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL CLEAR OUT ENOUGH FOR IT TO DEVELOP...WITH
TAF HEDGING ON THE MORE LIKELY AND OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR. CHC OF SHWRS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
ON THE UPDATE...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. NOTED STRONGER WIDNS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LAKE ONTARIO
THAN SOUTH SIDE...SO MAY SEE WAVES BUILD AHEAD OF THE WINDS ON THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...PROMPTING THE SCA.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY FRESHEN UP THIS AFTERNOON. THEY
WILL BACK TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THEY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BACK SUNDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE COAST. LAKE ONTARIO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NECESSARY TONIGHT AND CONTINUING ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WILL
HAVE A GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO
FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...11Z SAT THROUGH 05Z
SUN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO MELT OFF TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
BACK INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. IT WILL BE JUST A LITTLE COOLER
THAN THURSDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER BUT DEW POINTS WILL RISE
MAKING THE MELT MORE EFFICIENT. THIS WILL SWELL AREA RIVERS AND
CREEKS TO SOME DEGREE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE UPCOMING
HYDROLOGICAL EVENT. THERE IS STILL SOME DOUBT ON JUST HOW FAR
NORTH SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL MAKE IT. OUR CURRENT THINK THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL BRING ABOUT AN INCH AND A QUARTER TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION. ONLY ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE SNOWMELT AND FUTURE QPF FORECASTS. NO FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME.
ONE NOTE...OUR ESF (SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK) WAS UPDATED THURSDAY TO
REFLECT THE UPCOMING SITUATION THIS WEEKEND. THREAT HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO "ABOVE NORMAL" IN THE NEAR TERM (ONE WEEK) BUT "BELOW
NORMAL" IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
LOZ042-062.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
&&
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...SFM/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...SFMHazardous weather outlook, Mar 12, 4:54 AM EST, 10 hours 59 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 454 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-131000- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA- CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- 454 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL COMBINE WITH RAPID RUNOFF OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK TO RESULT IN POTENTIAL HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-040-041-LOZ043>045-063>065-SLZ022-024-131000- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 454 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LOZ042-062-131000- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 454 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010 ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 3:59 AM EST | Gale Watch | BUF | 13 hr | |
| Mar 12, 3:59 AM EST | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 27 hr | |
| Mar 12, 4:41 PM EST | Gale Warning | BUF | 36 hr | |
| Mar 12, 4:41 PM EST | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 3 days |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.