Wind Advisory 7, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
852 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY/...EVENING SOUNDING
INDICATING INVERSION JUST ABOUT WHERE IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY
...WINDS ABOUT THE SAME AND DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR TWO DRIER.
PERSISTENCE A GOOD FORECAST AND EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ONCE AGAIN
ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHIER EARLY ON AS WINDS STAY UP A
LITTLE LONGER. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAKING MID MORNING AND
BREEZY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TEMPORARILY SLACKENS AS SURFACE LOW IN KANSAS BEGINS TO SHIFTS
EASTWARD.
&&

.LONG TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH END OF FORECAST/...MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE IN LONG TERM WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BOTH PROGGED BY NAM AND GFS TO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. 18Z RUN
OF GFS NOW DRIER OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THAN 12Z RUN...INDICATING
PRECIPITATION OVER CRP CWFA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND THREE
COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE BRO CWFA. MEANWHILE...NAM VERY SIMILAR...
BUT ALSO SHOWING RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BRO CWFA. MEANWHILE...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) DOES NOT HAVE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN GENERAL
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL. CURRENT GFE GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY IN
COMPLETE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF BOTH GFS...NAM...AND SPC...SHOWING
MAINLY SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND COASTAL
WATERS OF THE BRO CWFA...OUT OF SYNC WITH NEIGHBORING CRP CWFA...
WITH POPS CONSISTING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEELING AT THIS
TIME IS TO SCALE BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 10 OR 20 PERCENT...
AND INDICATE SHOWERS ONLY...BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SPC
DISCUSSIONS. HOWEVER...MODEL DATA HAS BEEN WAFFLING OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...FIRST WET...THEN DRY...THEN WET...NOW BACK TO
DRY. WILL LEAVE THESE GRIDS ALONE FOR NOW AND DISCUSS SITUATION
WITH INCOMING OVERNIGHT SHIFT. NO OTHER LONG TERM GRID CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
IN EFFECT IN VARIOUS CONFIGURATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL LAY DOWN SOME OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN ROBUST OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE
BORDERLINE FOR SCA AT TIMES. LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BRING WAVES
BACK UP QUICKLY AFTER LIGHTER WIND HOURS.

7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH END OF FORECAST...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE
TO ROUGH SWELLS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY PREVAILS
...BUT ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAY OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.
&&

.AVIATION...PERSISTENCE A GOOD FORECAST GIVEN NEARLY IDENTICAL
SOUNDING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY KEEP CEILINGS
PATCHIER IN THE EARLY HOURS HOWEVER EXPECT BKN TO OVC MVFR CIGS
AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BREEZY CONDITIONS WITHIN
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW WILL
MAINLY BE ONSHORE AND MOIST...SO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL TO CRITERIA REQUIRED FOR RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE
WHEN FUELS ARE CONSIDERED TO BE NO LONGER CURED. ONLY TIME WHEN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY INDEED REACH CRITERIA IS ON THURSDAY
AFTER THE LATE-WEDNESDAY PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS
WILL LIKELY HAVE LAID ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STORMS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  72  82  72  86 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          71  84  71  86 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            70  87  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              71  89  71  85 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  93  71  84 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   73  80  73  77 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
135-150-155.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-
132-135.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY
FOR GMZ170-175.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY
FOR GMZ150-155.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SHORT TERM...RYDELL-51
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
329 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-061100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
329 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE MARINE
ZONES. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ248>257-061100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
329 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.