Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
900 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY THIS
EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...THEREFORE
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MODELS
REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN IN KEEPING A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE BRO SOUNDING THIS EVENING
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AS THE MODELS INDICATE.
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR CIG/VSBYS DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
BR LIGHT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE LOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH RESULTING SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FEET ACROSS THE GULF. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BRIEFLY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...BUT CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT THIS
WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO NO MORE THAN A 6 HOUR BLOCK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 129 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010/

SHORT TERM /7 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY/...LOCAL AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS AND
SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWARD.  MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
POSITIONING AND MOVEMENT ALTHOUGH NAM STILL A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC WITH
FASTER MOVEMENT AND LOWER QPF.  QUESTION REMAINS EXACTLY WHERE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL SET UP.  BEST BETS CONTINUE TO BE TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 77 TUESDAY MORNING AND FURTHER NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL SEE MEASUREABLE
PRECIPITATION.  STRONGER STORMS TO THE WEST AND NORTH WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LIMITED VSBY...GUSTY WINDS AND
SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING.

CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON TUESDAY BUT HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN OPPRESSIVE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT AND DAYTIME HOURS
ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE PCPN CHCS ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED SULTRY SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS. MID LVL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PROGGED BY MDLS TO SLOWLY SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE
PORTIONS OF TX AS THE TERM BEGINS ON WED. WILL CONTINUE TO CALL
FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF PCPN DURING THE DAYTIME HRS ON WED ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TX AS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ALONG
WITH STRONG LOW LVL JET DEVELOPING. MDLS THEN PROG MID LVL LOW TO
SLIDE ACROSS NE TX ON THU AND INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION ON FRI.
RAIN CHCS ARE ANTICIPATED TO END BY LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. MID
LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO NOSE BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGING TAKING PLACE LOCALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...RIDGE WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
AS ANOTHER MID LVL TROF SLIDES FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. RICH TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT THRU THE PERIOD WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 70S WHICH WILL PROHIBIT OVRNGT LOWS
FROM REACHING ANY SORT OF RELIEF RANGE. THE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL ALLOW HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES TO
REMAIN WHICH WILL ACT TO MUTE DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
LONGER TERM. HOWEVER...DAYTIME READINGS WILL REMAIN HOT WITH LOW
TO MID 90S ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES AND UPPER 90S/NEAR 100 ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN FA.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

65/64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
830 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-081100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
830 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS REDUCING VISIBILITY BRIEFLY BELOW 3 NM. WIND
GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 MPH IN THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ISOLATED MAINLY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ248>257-081100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
830 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT AND END BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CONTINUED HOT AND MUGGY WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 112 EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S MOST OF THE NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. SPOTTERS MAY WISH TO SELF
ACTIVATE ON TUESDAY.

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